Red Sox: What the starting rotation looks like now

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We know which pitcher will take the top spot in the Red Sox rotation, but who fills in after David Price?

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There’s a new ace in town, as the Boston Red Sox have brought in David Price to anchor the starting rotation.

It’s no secret who will take the mound on Opening Day, but who else fills out the rest of the staff? The Red Sox have plenty of depth, but are without a clear cut No. 2 that will slot in behind Price. On the flip side, there are several deserving options vying for spots near the back of the rotation, a few of which will inevitably be left out.

The Red Sox 40-man roster includes nine pitchers that made at least one start for the team in 2015, but there are only four open spots in the rotation. Some of those pitchers will be sent to Pawtucket to serve as emergency depth for the big league club, while others may need to be transitioned to the bullpen.

We also can’t rule out the possibility of trades clearing up the picture for us. The Red Sox have several pitchers with appealing contracts that other teams could be enticed to deal for. This may be a way for ownership to shed some salary off the books to ease the damage that Price’s historic contract has done to John Henry’s wallet.

We can safely assume that the new $217 million man will take the top spot in the rotation, but let’s take a look at the best options to fill slots two through five.

Next: Clay Buchholz

Clay Buchholz

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While he won’t be handed the ball on Opening Day again this year, Buchholz has looked suspiciously like an ace at times in his career. The problem with him has always been consistency. He has gone through long stretches where he looked completely lost on the mound, which essentially sums up his entire 2014 season. As much of a lost season as that was, it came sandwiched between two seasons where he was among the best pitchers in the game.

Eduardo Rodriguez

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The 22-year old showed flashes of brilliance in his impressive rookie season, posting a 3.85 ERA over 21 starts. He has the tools to develop into a top of the rotation starter someday, but he’s not there yet. For now we’ll slot him into the third spot in the rotation, while acknowledging the possibility that he will exceed the expectations of that role.

Rodriguez’s debut season was highlighted by his bizarre day/night splits. He was 10-2 with a 1.87 ERA that was the best in the league among starters in night games, but posted a brutal 7.88 ERA during the day. Perhaps he wasn’t prepared for the earlier start times, which is an adjustment he’ll make with more experience. It’s also possible that his pitches were easier for opposing hitters to pick up during the daytime, particularly considering there were times when the Red Sox believe he may have been tipping his pitches. It’s also important to note that not all of his day starts were a disaster, so a few poor outings could heavily influence those numbers since he only made 8 day starts.

Whatever the reason for the massive gap in those splits, the learning experience should only help make Rodriguez a better pitcher going forward. As long as he’s figured out his daytime issues then he should be able to more consistently pitch the way he did during those 13 night starts.

If Rodriguez even approaches those sensational numbers over a full season, we may have a future co-ace on our hands. That may be getting a bit ahead of ourselves, but we can at least count on E-Rod as a lock for the rotation.

Next: Rick Porcello

Rick Porcello

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This isn’t a name that fans will be excited about seeing in the rotation after a brutal first season in Boston, but Porcello’s contract gives the Red Sox little choice but to stick with him.

Porcello was one of the worst pitchers in baseball in the first half of the season, leaving a sour taste in the mouths of fans that had just watched the Red Sox hand him a 4-year, $82.5 million extension before waiting to see how he would adapt to his new environment in Boston.

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As poorly as last season went for Porcello, there’s still reasons to be optimistic about a bounce back campaign. For starters, his 4.13 FIP, while certainly not great, was still much better than his 4.92 ERA. This suggests that even in the worst season of his career he wasn’t quite as bad as it looked.

It’s also encouraging that Porcello was much better in the second half, posting a 3.53 ERA after the break. The right-hander was banished to the disabled list following a start against the Chicago White Sox on July 29 in which he lasted a mere two innings. The time off seemed to revive him, as he returned stronger than ever. Porcello shut out that same White Sox team over seven innings in his return to the mound nearly one month later and owned a 2.82 ERA the rest of the way.

Porcello will probably never live up to that outrageous contract, but he’s still only 26 years old and has a track record that shows he’s capable of being the pitcher we saw in the second half of last season. His 2014 season with the Detroit Tigers was basically at that same level, which is the pitcher the Red Sox thought they were trading for. There’s no reason to think he can’t get back to being that same guy again this year.

Next: Wade Miley

Wade Miley

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Miley is what he is at this point. A solid, back of the rotation starter that can get you around 200 innings while pitching well enough to keep his team in the game.

His 4.46 ERA and 6.8 K/9 rate aren’t going to get anyone excited about what he brings to the table, but Miley has more value than those numbers suggest. His 3.81 FIP ranked 15th in the American League and he was 20th among qualified pitchers with a 2.5 WAR. If you’re getting that out of your No. 5 starter, you’re in pretty good shape.

Of course it’s those numbers, along with his very reasonable contract, that make Miley the most likely candidate to be traded. He’ll earn just over $15 million total over the next two seasons, plus a $12 million team option for 2018 that remains a bargain if he continues to pitch at his current level.

The Red Sox may be looking for ways to shed payroll without weakening the roster after signing Price to a record-breaking deal. Dealing Miley for prospects and replacing him in the rotation with a cheaper alternative from their deep stash of young pitchers seems like the most feasible way to do that.

If the Miley remains on the roster when the season kicks off in April, the Red Sox should have no qualms about keeping him in the rotation.

Next: What about the rest?

What about the rest?

Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

That still leaves a handful of pitchers that made at least one start for Boston last year that remain on the 40-man roster. So what do the Red Sox do with them?

Henry Owens is the premier name in this group, but he may fall victim to a numbers game. The organization still has high hopes for the lefty’s future, but he’ll likely start the season down in Pawtucket waiting for an injury or trade to pave a path for his return to the big leagues. He showed potential in his rookie season, but inconsistency held him to a mediocre 4.57 ERA, indicating a bit more seasoning wouldn’t hurt. He’d need to have a sensational spring in order to force his way into the rotation to begin the year.

Brian Johnson arguably performed the best of the trio of young left-handed pitchers that started the season together in Pawtucket last year, but he failed to impress in his major league debut and injury deprived him of a second chance. If he out-pitches Owens early in the season down in Triple-A, he may manage to steal his spot as the first option to be called up if the Red Sox need a spot starter.

It will be tempting to see if Joe Kelly can recapture the form that led to him ripping off eight straight wins during a streak that began on August 1, so keeping him stretched out as a starter in Pawtucket is an option. Then again, Dave Dombrowski likes hard throwing relievers and may envision Kelly’s blazing fastball and limited arsenal as an ideal fit for the bullpen.

The team has already determined that to be the plan for Matt Barnes, so that answers the question of what his role will be. No more flip-flopping between being a starter or reliever. Barnes will be in the bullpen full-time next season.

That leaves us with Steven Wright, who will once again serve as emergency depth for the rotation or a long reliever out of the bullpen. The knuckleballer always seems to exceed expectations when given the chance, but there’s always other options with greater upside standing in his way.

Next: More acquisitions possible after Price?

It’s a long season, so we may see all of these pitchers used on the roster at some point in 2016. The Red Sox are thrilled to finally have the ace they craved, but are also fortunate to have so much depth behind him.

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