Red Sox not concerned with David Price’s postseason record
David Price’s postseason resume didn’t deter the Boston Red Sox from signing him to a record contract, nor should it have.
Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Well this is going to be a bit awkward when the Boston Red Sox arrive in Fort Myers for spring training and Clay Buchholz hands newcomer David Price one of his custom made “He’s the ace” tee-shirts.
Unlike last spring when everyone was worried about who was going to lead this pitching staff, there’s no longer any doubts about who the ace is for the Red Sox. It’s Price, who will be signed to the most lucrative contract ever given to a pitcher.
The ace is the guy that is handed the ball on Opening Day, which is a role Price is well accustomed to. He’s expected to be the workhorse of the staff, which is no problem for a pitcher that has tossed 200+ innings in five of the last six seasons and hasn’t made fewer than 27 starts since he was a rookie in 2009. He also has to produce over the course of those outings, which Price does as well as almost anyone. The lefty has a career 3.09 ERA and 8.6 K/9 rate, while just having completed a season in which he led the league with a 2.45 ERA. You want the top pitcher in your rotation to at least be in the running for some hardware, but rest assured that Price is a former Cy Young winner that has finished second in the voting two other times, while earning five All-Star appearances.
The ace is also the one that you want on the mound in Game 1 of a playoff series, which is what has caused some to hesitate when it comes to Price. The 30-year old hasn’t had the most accomplished postseason history, which seems problematic to a fan base that craves championships.
Dave Dombrowski knows David Price fairly well, having seen him perform up close in the playoffs during their time together with the Detroit Tigers. Clearly he’s not concerned with how Price will perform and neither should you. Here’s why.
Next: Wins don't tell the full story
Wins don’t tell the full story
Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
The first thing Price’s critics will point out is that he has yet to win a postseason start. He does have a pair of playoff wins on his record, but both came in relief appearances. The 0-7 record Price has accumulated in his postseason starts has left a sour taste in the mouths of those expecting him to be the savior of this staff. Sorry, but what century are we in where wins are the most accurate way of judging a pitcher’s worth? We moved beyond that years ago.
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Those that argue that Price is incapable of performing in the postseason aren’t seeing the full picture. He may not have earned the win in any of his starts, but he’s certainly pitched well enough to deserve one in several cases, with four quality starts in the postseason to his credit.
In his lone postseason appearance in 2014, Price held the Baltimore Orioles to two runs over 8 innings, but took the loss because his offense could only muster a single run of support. How exactly is that his fault?
Game 2 of the 2015 ALCS saw Price blank the Kansas City Royals through six innings, before the game unraveled on him in the seventh. A visibly worn out Price surrendered three straight singles before retiring the first batter of the inning on a groundout that scored a run. He sandwiched a strikeout between another single and a double that mercifully ended his night. It was a brutal frame to be sure, but given his dominance through six innings it’s clear that Price was simply left in the game too long. When that happens to Pedro Martinez, we fire Grady Little. When Price’s manager makes the same mistake we blame the pitcher for not coming through in a key postseason start.
We would feel a lot differently about Price if he had been lifted a few batters earlier in that game and his bullpen had held on to get him a win.
Next: ERA isn't the only important stat either
ERA isn’t the only important stat either
Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
A 5.12 ERA isn’t exactly encouraging. Even Rick Porcello‘s disastrous first season in Boston concluded with an ERA south of 5.00, even if it did float above that mark for most of the year. As discouraging as Price’s postseason ERA appears, we must remember it comes in a much smaller sample size.
Price has thrown 63.1 innings in the postseason, which is a small enough sample where one bad outing can skew his statistics. Price had one such outing in the 2013 ALDS, when the Red Sox roughed him up for 7 runs. Take that one horrendous start out of the equation and Price has compiled a 4.06 ERA in his other postseason starts. Still not great, but certainly not awful.
Despite the inflated ERA, Price hasn’t necessarily pitched terribly in the postseason. His 8.4 K/9 rate in the playoffs is only a tick below his regular season average, while his 4.82 K/BB ratio is quite a bit better than the already impressive mark he has produced in the regular season. Price has always been stingy when it comes to allowing walks, but he’s even better at avoiding free passes in the playoffs. This suggests that his high ERA is at least in part due to factors outside of his control.
Next: The Lester Factor
The Lester Factor
Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Fans were furious when the Red Sox were unable to bring Jon Lester back to Boston last winter and their concerns weren’t appeased when the front office shelled out a lot more money for Price than it would have taken to sign Lester a year ago.
Here’s the thing that Lester supporters don’t want to believe. Price is a better pitcher.
Price’s career ERA is nearly half a run lower than Lester’s, his K/9 and K/BB ratios are better, as is his ERA+ and FIP. Price has produced 28.8 WAR since his rookie year in 2009. Since that same year, Lester has produced 27.1 WAR. Price has won a Cy Young and finished as the runner-up twice, along with one other sixth place finish. Lester has never finished higher than 4th in the voting, which he’s done twice in his career. Those are the only times he’s ever finished in the top-10.
Pick almost any stat and you’ll find Price has the edge, leaving little debate who the more dominant pitcher is. This isn’t knock at all on Lester, it’s merely a recognition of how great Price is.
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The one area Lester has the advantage is in the postseason. Red Sox fans adore him for the pair of championship rings he won in Boston, and rightfully so. His 0.42 ERA over 21 innings in the World Series is about as good as it gets, which is another boost to his profile. There’s no doubt that Lester was brilliant during Boston’s two World Series runs in 2007 and 2013, but take a look at his postseason appearances in the other years that his team didn’t win a title. Those outings leave a lot to be desired.
Lester deserves a ton of credit for being essentially unbeatable in the World Series, but it’s not a reason to hold it against Price that he’s never gotten that chance. Price’s only trip to the World Series was when he burst onto the scene as a dominant reliever out of the bullpen for the Tampa Bay Rays. He allowed only one earned run in 3.1 innings, covering two appearances against the eventual champion Philadelphia Phillies. It’s a minuscule sample, but the only sample we have of Price on the game’s biggest stage is pretty good.
Some of Price’s other postseason outings didn’t go so well, but Lester has a few he’d like back as well. There is a certain comfort level with Lester because we’ve won with him before, but that doesn’t mean we can’t win with Price.
Next: Worth the Price
Worth the Price
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s face it, the Red Sox were desperate for an ace and Dombrowski was hellbent at getting one at any cost. Price was the best starting pitcher on the market, with Zack Greinke being the only other ace in his class. The difference is that Price is AL East tested and won’t cost the Red Sox a draft pick to sign him.
Price has been one of the game’s most dominant pitchers over the last several years and he’s a perfect fit for the Red Sox. Just take a look at how he’s done in his career pitching in each of the ballparks that are home to teams in this division.
Fenway Park – 1.95 ERA
Yankee Stadium – 3.27 ERA
Camden Yards – 3.24 ERA
Rogers Centre – 3.34 ERA
Tropicana Field – 2.89 ERA
He spent the first six and a half years pitching in this division for the Rays, as well as the most recent half season after he was traded to Toronto last summer. We know he can handle pitching in one of the game’s most difficult divisions and should remain among the elite.
Next: Red Sox sign Chris Young
The Red Sox have missed the postseason in five of the last six years. Price can help this team get back to the playoffs, so we can worry about how he performs in October once we actually get there.