Boston Red Sox: Why David Price is a really good deal
Red Sox President Dave Dombrowski got his man and the Red Sox have their ace, David Price. We discuss why the deal is good for Boston.
Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Where were you when you heard the news that ace pitcher David Price had accepted an offer of $217 million over 7 years from the Boston Red Sox? I was in bed, it was 4 AM and I didn’t sleep for the rest of the night. I may never sleep again. The sheer exhilaration of seeing Boston take the prize this offseason, perhaps only matched by my wonderment at how well it had been accomplished.
Red Sox President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski came here and candidly put forward a plan: improve the bullpen, get a 4th outfielder and acquire an ace. Boom, boom, boom.That’s a wrap. Dombrowski has improved the Boston lineup more in two weeks than in two years of offseasons from his predecessor. Moving with shocking alacrity, Dombrowski lept ahead of the market and forced the hand of Price’s agent Bo McKinnis into making a decision before the Winter Meetings even begin and, perhaps more crucially, before Red Sox tickets for 2016 go on sale.
More from Red Sox News
- Red Sox Nation deserves far more from Fenway Sports Group
- Bizarre trade deadline comes back to haunt Red Sox after Nathan Eovaldi departure
- Red Sox’ Moneyball-style offseason continues with Corey Kluber contract
- Rich Hill’s Red Sox departure puts him within striking distance of unique MLB record
- Red Sox offseason takes another nasty hit with Nathan Eovaldi departure
So who’s interested in going to Cleveland for opening day? We now know who is getting the ball for Boston at least. Price is someone we’ve discussed many times on here before, and not only because of the speculation he might sign with the Red Sox. He’s a prolific pitcher who has spent his entire career in the hitter-friendly American League and almost all of that in our very own AL East, easily the most brutal group of the bunch. And yet he dominates.
Even so, Dombrowski had to go to the nth degree to get his man, someone he had traded for while still GM of the Detroit Tigers. A speculated $30 million over the next highest bid, that of the St Louis Cardinals, and an opt-out clause after 3 years, appear to be critical to the deal. Has Boston not been had with this deal? Is it not likely that, if Price doesn’t use his opt-out, that he will only sit on collecting top dollar for stagnating returns ala CC Sabathia?
I don’t think so and I’ll explain how. Let’s take a look at the nitty-gritty of the deal, the ins and outs of the man himself and why you should remember the moment you first heard the news, for all the right reasons.
Next: Price's contact is actually a steal
Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
1) Price’s contract is actually a steal
You heard me, a steal. A big, fat, record breaking, $217 million steal. Why? Well to begin, let’s tackle some of the arguments against the contract:
“It’s more (by 2 million dollars) than that of Clayton Kershaw and Price isn’t as good as Kershaw!”
First of all, Kershaw wasn’t given his contract on the free agent market and instead signed an extension. One would expect this to be less, even with the Dodgers having more money than sense. Second, with inflation it probably works out about the same, if not a little more, to Kershaw. Even so, the central point is there, why is Price getting Kershaw money?
Well, because he’s worth it. The market has changed, even from last year when Max Scherzer landed a contract of $210 over 7 years (most of it back-ended over the final years of the contract and even beyond) and you could make a reasonable case that Scherzer is in many ways the better of Price. Even so, supply and demand, this year Price is the best pitcher available, by no small margin, and a plethora of clubs want his services. He’s in the same league as Kershaw and Scherzer, i.e. the top echelon of pitchers in baseball and, right or wrong, can legitimately expect to be paid like it.
And just for fun, let me throw out there that Price, in many ways, is a better fit for the Red Sox than both. Price is an AL East pitcher, a known commodity in the very market Boston competes in. He has an unbelievably stingy career ERA of 1.95 at Fenway Park, evidently the lowest he has in any park he’s ever made more than one start in. He’s the most sure choice Dombrowski could have made with John Henry’s money.
“He will become a financial burden! A thin CC Sabathia with a Tennessee accent!”
Just a hunch, but I doubt it. For a start, one of the best aspects of Price’s contract is his opt-out clause. It’s good for him, he gives Boston a chance and, if it doesn’t work out, it doesn’t work out, and maybe he’ll be so good he could get more money on the free agency market in 3 years (though I personally doubt this.) But it’s also good for the Red Sox. Should he exercise it, then Boston gets 3 of his best years just before any expected performance degrade and all for the low-low cost of $90 million or so. How’s that sound? I don’t know any team in baseball who wouldn’t take Price at 3/$90 million. Heck I’d nearly have a whip around just to watch him pitch in my living room for that.
Ultimately, as I stated, I don’t think Price will opt out. He’s had his “wars” with David Ortiz and his rude comments from Red Sox warriors on Twitter, for sure. But he’s a professional and so is Ortiz. They both want to win, indeed none more than Papi in his final year in the game, and they’ll work together towards it. As for the fans? Not even a worry, they’ll love him. He’s Boston’s ace, he’s the face of the franchise, the show stopper, the seller of merchandise, the emoji on the Red Sox Twitter account’s profile. He is the Red Sox. No real supporter will begrudge that and even the hardened opponents will fall for him when they see him send away the best bats in the game by way of the K, inning after inning.
So he may not exercise the opt-out, but either which way Price has much to offer over 7 years (as we’ll discuss later) and even by 37, he is projected to be able to continue to compete. He’s already made adjustments. His fastball, the best around, still sits at 95 MPH but he is using his secondaries more, and has developed into a pitcher able to lean on them for similar success as when he relied almost entirely on his heat. He’s a student of the game – smart, capable and very determined. Even should his fastball drop a tick or two in the latter years of the contract, he has shown he can adapt and change his game.
More from Red Sox News
- Red Sox Nation deserves far more from Fenway Sports Group
- Bizarre trade deadline comes back to haunt Red Sox after Nathan Eovaldi departure
- Red Sox’ Moneyball-style offseason continues with Corey Kluber contract
- Rich Hill’s Red Sox departure puts him within striking distance of unique MLB record
- Red Sox offseason takes another nasty hit with Nathan Eovaldi departure
So that’s all good, but a steal? Yes a steal. If Price opts-out after three years it’s perhaps the best contract for a free agent ace in recent memory. 3 years of contract matches with the 3 years of control the Red Sox have over newly acquired elite closer Craig Kimbrel, a devastating combo. 3 years also takes us to the time when a whole crop of other big name free agent pitchers will become available, headlined by no less than Kershaw himself.
Of course, that makes it yet further unlikely Price will throw his hat into the ring. Supply up doesn’t do much for your bottom line. But, even if he doesn’t opt-out, I contend this is a steal for Boston. With the previous signings as a guide and the market being so rife with clubs seeking better/more pitching, the costs of acquiring one, let alone the best, were always going to be sky high. The longer the big war went on, the more outlandish the figure would become. Many predicted $230 million or above for Price. With the Dodgers and Giants involved, this is perhaps unsurprising.
But Dombrowski bypassed it all, he got ahead of the market and, instead of competing with the Dodgers and Giants, he decided to force Price into competing with Greinke by having a potential deal lined up waiting. This exceedingly astute move by Dombrowski put Price on the back foot and forced a decision before other big players could make an offer. Price had much to gain by waiting, particularly for Greinke to move, but the Red Sox made an offer that ticked all the right boxes and, in many ways, he was simply unable to refuse.
Better still, Price doesn’t cost a draft pick, as Greinke would. You may think this is a moot point, but it’s really not. I could slap an arbitrary figure of $30 million on the worth of Boston’s pick in the 2016 draft and many wouldn’t bat an eyelid. It’s projected to be one of the best in many years and the Red Sox take the 12th overall, unprotected but still very valuable. Lots of top pitchers will be available and could, feasibly, be ready for the show before Price’s contract expires.
All in all, you’ll struggle to find any industry insiders say that Boston overpaid. They paid what they needed to and got their man, the best man for the job.
Next: Price is a leader
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
2) Price is a leader
You’ve probably heard this before, but Price is an ace on the mound and in the clubhouse, he leads the rotation and bonds with his colleagues on a level that is all but unrivalled. Never mind that he bought his Toronto teammates scooters, his then GM Alex Anthopoulos described him as the best team player he’d seen, as reported by WEEI’s Rob Bradford:
“You hear about how he’s a great guy, good teammate. You hear that a lot about certain players, and it’s mostly guys who can change a clubhouse and a culture. But David Price was one of the guys that if you talk to people in that clubhouse… We already had a good clubhouse, but he took it to a whole different level. He’s probably the best teammate I’ve ever seen. I haven’t been in the game that long, but everyone else who has been around him has said he’s the best they’ve ever seen. “Look, he’s got front-line stuff. But he’s legitimately a great teammate. His work ethic is off the charts and he makes everybody else on the team a lot better. He brings something else more than just the two ERA and the 240 innings and everything else. He leads. He sets a great example. He’ll be a great get for any team that gets him.”
Price is endlessly positive, gung-ho and fired up. It’s contagious. His introduction to the Blue Jays rotation not only nearly guaranteed victory at least every 5 games but raised their spirits and they rode the crest of that wave from a .500 club all the way to the offseason. Price’s introduction to the Boston clubhouse will be a major game changer for the morale of a team that has languished in last place for two years on the trot.
But that’s not all, Price is a teacher and guide. One of the best at what he does, he goes to lengths to support and encourage the other pitchers on his team. He is widely credited, by no less than Tampa Bay Rays ace Chris Archer, as being the catalyst for his breakthrough and success. Marcus Stroman has said much the same thing.
Imagine the influence that this will have on young, impressionable pitchers such as Eduardo Rodriguez. Learning from Price, a fellow leftie, having him guide his bullpens and critique his form, could help shape Rodriguez into being the top of the line pitcher many feel he could be. Henry Owens too, would likely be influenced having one of the best in the business on the squad as he seeks to make the jump from AAA to the show full time. Ditto for Joe Kelly.
As for the rest of the pitching staff, the upgrade is equally as significant. Clay Buchholz has ace stuff but is as fragile and low on stamina as I am. With Price leading the way, Buchholz can settle back into doing what he does best: being silently brilliant. He will shine when he’s on the mound and when he’s no longer able to take it, he can rest assured the Sox will still have their number one out soaking up innings and giving the offense their best chance to win. The pressure is off and not just for Buchholz.
Rick Porcello, Price’s former teammate from Detroit, left the shadow of Price, Scherzer and Justin Verlander, came to Boston and felt the heat. The pressure on Porcello to perform, especially as he was extended without even throwing a pitch, weighed heavily on him and he imploded spectacularly. Several phantom injuries later, Porcello finishes the season on a good note providing hope for the following year. Now that Price is around, there’ll be no more of this “he’s the ace” t-shirt nonsense. Back under Price, Porcello can pitch the way he knows best, with his sinker, without worrying about playing up to cover for the lack of a number 1 at Fenway.
And, in case you thought only pitchers would benefit from having Price around, think again. He is some 68-1 when given at least 5 runs of support in his career, after all. Xander Bogaerts, as reported by Ian Browne of MLB.com, had this to say:
“My brother told me about it. I was definitely excited to get that news. He’s a great pitcher, I can tell you that for sure. I’m just happy not to face him anymore. I’m happy he’s on our side now. There weren’t too many easy at-bats or hits I had against him. He’s very tough, especially with that cutter. He throws that backdoor cutter and he throws it inside and jams you sometimes.”
So there it is, Price is a leader, a gamer, an all round competitor and exactly what Boston needs. And then there’s his performance on the mound.
Next: His performance
Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
3) His performance
Woah, boy. I really don’t know where to start with this. Price is literally a stat-nerd’s dream come true. For the sake of brevity, I’ll post some of his notable stats from 2015 and then discuss his pitching more broadly (statistics taken from Fangraphs):
ERA – 2.45, 4th best in MLB, best in the AL
FIP – 2.78, 8th best in MLB, 2nd in the AL
WAR – 6.4, 3rd best in MLB, best in the AL
On top of the above, he finished the year with a glorious K/9 of 9.19 and pitched some 220 innings.
Now, to start with, I’d like to focus on his innings pitched. 220.1 in 2015 is impressive in and of itself, but, when added with the 248.1 he pitched in 2014 (for a total of 468.2 IP) it stands high and mighty as the best in all of baseball. The next closest is Madison Bumgarner on 435.2, much lower overall. Why is this?
Price is the very definition of a workhorse, he threw 9 complete games in 2015 and pitched into the 9th inning in 6 others. Indeed, he probably would have done so in more games had the Blue Jays not elected to limit his innings towards the end of the campaign in preparation for the postseason. Regardless, Price works exceedingly hard and his delivery, while janky and unconventional, is widely touted as being a contributor to his lack of arm issues and overall strong health. With Price, you expect the bullpen to be less taxed and he enters every game intending to finish what he started. With a manager like John Farrell, often criticized for being slow to react to a pitcher’s struggling, this can only be a positive.
Not only does Price soak up a lot of innings, he does so with impressive run prevention. His ERA of 1.95 at Fenway is the best for any pitcher in MLB and much of it came while pitching for the Rays against some really strong Red Sox hitters, 2013 World Series winners included. His WAR for 2015 is much the same as he attained in previous seasons and can be expected to be much the same as what he will attain in Boston. It’s the same teams, in the same parks, that he’s pitching in, after all. That WAR, evidently, is higher than the entire Red Sox pitching staff combined.
Price’s weapon of choice is his fastball and it’s perhaps the best there is. He throws it at around 95 MPH, though it can touch 97, but its velocity paves way for its stunning command and control. He throws it all over the strike zone, picking off the edges and freezing batters in their tracks. This year has seen his changeup appear more frequently (a career high 22% of the time) and it has impressive bite, even despite the rumors he tipped the pitch during the postseason. The changeup and fastball are his two big “out” pitches, but in his arsenal he also commands a curveball and cutter to confuse the opposing batters. Price is a complete pitcher, with everything he needs to get the job done regardless of the team he’s facing.
Price is a dominant, lights out pitcher. The very kind that Boston has lacked since they let Jon Lester walk. And Price is much better than Lester. That’s reason enough to be excited as it is.
Next: Putting it all together
Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
In Conclusion
Dombrowski got his man. By all reports, he had nobody else in mind from the get go. Wouldn’t it be amazing to discover that he intentionally traded him to the Blue Jays, just so no qualifying offer could be made and no draft pick lost when he would sign with a team in free agency? Unlikely, but food for thought.
Either which way, Boston has gained, and gained big, and the hot stove has only just started to heat up. The addition of Kimbrel, alongside Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa, changes the perception of the bullpen from sinking ship to unstoppable juggernaut in one simple move. Snapping up Chris Young brings offensive security to an outfield full of question marks. Now the addition of Price completes the rotation.
Price was the ace not only Dombrowski wanted, but that Boston needed. He reliably soaks up innings, allowing the very minimum in runs to leak through. He is an almost unrivaled positive influence to those around him in the squad. Best of all, he’s ours. We never have to face Price again, but he will continue to be the bane of every other team in the league and beyond.
I struggle to find reasons to dislike the contract Price ultimately agreed to, and it’s unfair, to say the least, to suggest this is a bad deal for Boston. It simply isn’t. John Henry’s bank balance may suffer, but the Red Sox turned a weakness into a strength and are unquestionably going to be a force to contend with. One signing can make all the difference, depending on who it is. Price is one of those people.
Next: Boston Red Sox Catching Up With Old Friends - Jake Peavy
It was 4AM, I was in bed, and I couldn’t get back to sleep. But I’m still as excited now as then and I don’t foresee it calming any time soon. The Red Sox have their ace and Dombrowski has delivered on just about everything we could have wanted, and indeed that he promised he would. Now, to stay up and see what he can do with Hanley Ramirez…