Boston Red Sox potential pitching FA bargains
May 16, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Cleveland Indians relief pitcher Scott Atchison (48) pitches during the game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Indians defeated the Rangers 10-8. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
The Boston Red Sox may have a payroll that is at $180 Million and climbing further into the monetary stratosphere, but that does not mean they don’t appreciate a potential bargain. With free agency in full bloom, there are many roses and rare orchids available for the right price. And, speaking of price that would mean a David Price as the prototype of the current class that has placed their skills on the auction block.
Fans love to fantasize about being a GM and wheeling and dealing with outrageous trades and collecting players of note who may or may not help a team move forward. Heck – sign Price, Zack Greinke, Alex Gordon and just about any high profile available. Then trade for a Chris Sale or a Sonny Gray. Left to our own devices, the team would probably be at a hearing at 5 Post Office Square – home of the Boston Bankruptcy Court.
The Red Sox will go bargain hunting. Sometimes a bargain is an Adrian Beltre – a reasonable performer coming off a sour season who wishes to reestablish himself. In Beltre’s case he certainly did. But my concentration is not on the stars or the potential stars, but the less than shining lights. The possibility of finding a Jonny Gomes.
The Red Sox try this with pitching as does every team. The list of players that are brought in on a whim, a free agent risk, a player with a signing that elicits a yawn from fans, a “didn’t you use to be somebody?” and just someone hoping and praying to any baseball deity for another year or two. Find enough bodies and hope one surfaces to provide some quality depth. Not a Joakim Soria or a Darren O’Day, but a Scott Atchison or even a Koji Uehara and they are out there. Of course, the downside is you may get Vicente Padilla or Bobby Jenks.
So just who is on the list of the baseball job lot discount store? Pitchers with varying degrees of success and failure who just may be worth more than a casual glance? Those wishing for that one year trial in hopes of a far larger reward. The one-year option to reestablish your credentials or with some intrinsic value that is under the radar.
Sep 23, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Cleveland Indians relief pitcher Ryan Webb (54) pitches to the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Twins win 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Webb: 2015 stats: 1-0 W/L, 40 G, 50.2 IP, 46 H, 12 BB, 31 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.17 FIP
Webb pitched for the Indians in 2015 – signing a minor league contract with Cleveland after being released by the Dodgers in April. Webb reported to Columbus for a handful of games before being promoted to the parent club.
Webb, who will be 30-years-old in February, is a tall (6’6”) right-hander who is a sinkerball specialist. That is demonstrated in his HR/9 figure that is 0.5 in 376 innings pitched in a seven-year career with four teams. Webb is also the son of former MLB player Hank Webb, so there is a baseball pedigree.
Webb has functioned exclusively out of the bullpen in his MLB career with 357 games in relief. Of note is despite that number Webb has never notched a save. Webb’s pitch selection is heavily based on his sinker (60.9%), a slider (21.1%) and a change (15.2%). The sinker is usually in the 92-93 MPH range with the secondary pitches dipping 8-10 MPH lower.
The key with Webb is his ground ball percentage that was 59.2 for the season. This is the ideal pitcher to look at for a situation that has a stamp of “DP Necessary” on it. So, just maybe, Webb could be the Burke Badenhop of 2016?
Sep 1, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher Casey Janssen (44) throws to a St. Louis Cardinals batter during the ninth inning at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals defeated the Nationals 8-5. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Casey Janssen: 2015 Stats: 2-5 W/L 48 G, 40 IP, 38 H, 8 BB, 27 K, 4.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 4.08 FIP.
A nine-year veteran right-hander who is now 34-years-old. Janssen has been a familiar face to Red Sox fans since the first eight years of his career was spent in the American League East with the Toronto Blue Jays. Of note is a 0-2 record at Fenway Park with a 3.10 ERA in 20.1 innings. Janssen also was a closer for the Jays for three seasons with a total of 81 saves in those three seasons. Janssen also registered 10 blown saves in that time frame.
Janssen features a two and four seam fastball (91-93 MPH), slider, curve, and a change. Janssen’s GB% has dropped steadily in the last three seasons from 47.9% to 29.4%, but the HR/9 has not increased dramatically. Last season Janssen also posted a BABIP of .264 versus his career .288 BABIP.
An issue with Janssen has been health – especially a back problem that has occasionally surfaced. Add in a ground ball rate that is not impressive and that could mean problems within the friendly confines of Fenway Park.
Janssen is a risk item, but he has a wealth of experience is all aspects of pitching at the MLB level including 19 career starts. A seasoned veteran who does not walk many with a career BB/9 of 2.2 that could hold down the lower end of the bullpen.
Oct 9, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Oliver Perez throws a pitch against the Kansas City Royals in the 6th inning in game two of the ALDS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Oliver Perez: 2015 stats: 2-4 W/L, 70 G, 41 IP, 39 H, 15 BB, 51 K, 4.17 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.30 FIP
Perez, a 34-year-old left-hander, was once a starter who has transitioned to the bullpen and now is a situational lefty. When you examine his 2015 lefties hit a feeble .185 and right-handers a more robust .310. Perez also is prone to walks and plenty of them since he once led the National League in walks (105) in 2008 with the New York Mets – one of six teams Perez has pitched for.
The walk issue a caution sign with any bullpen operative and a career BB/9 of 4.9 shows that Perez can place himself in the inevitable spot of pitching behind in the count. Perez is also a fly ball prevalent pitcher that has a career ground ball rate of 33.4%, but does keep the ball in the yard with an HR/9 of 0.9 for 2015.
Perez relies on two pitches – a fastball rate of 57.2% and a slider at 42.6%. The speed difference is notable with the FB at 91.9 MPH and the slider at 79.3.
What Perez represents is situational depth for Boston and may be willing to take a minor league deal with a roster clause. Tommy Layne is a more reliable and cheaper option, but it is nice to have an insurance policy stored away at Pawtucket.
October 20, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs relief pitcher Trevor Cahill (53) pitches the sixth inning against the New York Mets in game four of the NLCS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Trevor Cahill: 2015 stats: 1-3 W/L, 26 G, 43.1 IP, 44 H, 16 BB, 36 K, 5.40 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 3.92 FIP
Cahill represents the classic example of projecting early career success into the future. With the A’s, Cahill made the All-Star team and won 22 games as a 22-year-old. That set the bar very high and the bar went lower and lower each season as the performance continued to deteriorate.
When Oakland shipped Cahill to Arizona that started a nomadic adventure that included Atlanta, LA and finally the Cubs. There was the usual sprinkling of various minor league destinations with all of the above related to injury recovery and performance issues as attempts were being made to regain that early baseball magic.
A glimmer of hope surfaced with the Cubs in late 2015 as a shift to the bullpen saw some encouraging performance statistics with 17 innings and 11 games that had a 2.12 ERA attached. Can Cahill be a possible bullpen additive?
Cahill has never been a dominant fastball pitcher as his career velocity is just a shade under 90 MPH with the pitch he utilizes most often at a 54.5% in 2015. Cahill mixes in a slider that is now being used more frequently (16.7%) and a curve and change-up. The ground ball rate in 2015 was 63.1% and the real negative with Cahill is his control – a career BB/9 of 3.55 and once leading the National League in wild pitches (17).
The right-handed Cahill does offer one an enticing option of having an experienced arm in the bullpen and, quite possibly, rebounding to his early career success. A Cahill signing has one year deal stamped on it. A low risk with potentially high returns.
Jun 21, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Tim Lincecum (55) in the first inning of the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Tim Lincecum: 2015 stats: 7-4 W/L, 15 G, 76.1 IP, 75 H, 38 BB, 60 K, 4.13 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.29 FIP
Many species migrate and so does the baseball pitching species – or should migrate be replaced with transition? And, with Lincecum the transition is from a hard thrower who relied on a dominating fastball to one where secondary pitches are now used a tad more than in the glory days. The key is the fastball is now in the speed territory of Uehara and not of the “Tiny Tim” that led the National League in punch outs three straight years back when Cy Young Award was a staple of his career.
One thing is quite certain and that is salary – do not expect Lincecum to remotely approach the earnings of his last two seasons. A second issue is Lincecum’s walks. Walks are, to me, the Ebola of pitching and “Slim” can be a plague with that as a career BB/9 of 3.5 will attest. A spin-off of walks is usually another disease and that is a wild pitch. Three times “The Freak” has led the National League in that dubious stat.
So why Lincecum? This is now a 31-year-old right-hander who appears to have played out what many expected to be a Hall of Fame career. Again, the low risk and high return of someone who wishes to reestablish their prominence or to discovery another niche – say, the bullpen – to reinvent themselves.
Next: Red Sox can learn from Cy Young winners
The primary concern is how Lincecum can rely on his secondary pitches working off what has become a mediocre fastball. Can that be accomplished and with a bit more control? Someone will find out in 2016 and it could be the Red Sox.