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Boston Red Sox: Debunking myths about the Kimbrel trade

By Stephen Little |
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May 8, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Craig Kimbrel against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. The Padres defeated the Diamondbacks 6-5. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

So by now you’ve probably heard that the Boston Red Sox completed a trade for now-former San Diego Padres elite closer Craig Kimbrel in exchange for prospects-with-names 1, 2, 3 and 4. Not only this site is aflame with the news, but indeed every baseball outlet has dedicated considerable space to its dissemination. It is, after all, the first big trade of the offseason, the first big trade of Red Sox President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski’s tenure, the first big shedding of Boston’s youngsters in what seems like forever. It’s the end of the world as we know it.

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And I feel fine. Honestly I do, I’ve had plenty of time, be it by day or by sleepless night, to look at this trade and ponder the ramifications of coughing up a Manuel Margot or Javier Guerra for a 60-inning a year pitcher. Even if I knew where to buy torches and pitchforks these days (perhaps Bobby Valentine knows?) the chances of my using them to go headhunting for Dombrowski’s scalp are about as high as the Padres making me their next closer.

That’s not to say I don’t understand where the dissenters are coming from. Boston’s prospects are prized on an almost historic level. If the Red Sox suck now, well, there’s always the illusive zephyr of hope looming in minors that is unable, at least at present, to offer any disappointment. After two straight years of last place in AL East, it’s unsurprising that attention turns to the one thing in Boston that always tops the pile: the farm system.

But really, what is the farm? Does it make Hanley Ramirez’s helmet stay on as he takes a hulking, lunging K with the bases loaded? Does it give us reason to not panic when the bullpen is called upon with a lead less than 4 runs? It’s only potential after all. Potential is that word you may remember from school a lot. If there’s little positive to say about someone, the teacher usually resorts to the tried and trusted “well, they have a lot of potential.” A lot of potential, but not a lot of results.

Saying the same about the Red Sox prospects included in this deal or any other may be a little unfair, but the point stands. Either which way, I want to examine a few issues of the deal, attack a few red herrings and perhaps a few strawmen en route, and put forward why I believe that at least the acquisition of Kimbrel isn’t something to start panicking about. Perhaps even the contrary.

Next: Open season for the prospects

Apr 15, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel (46) pumps his fist after recording a save in the 3-2 win over the against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

1) “It’s open season for the Red Sox prospects”

I’ve seen some speculate even before the deal that Dombrowski is going to sell the farm for pennies on the dollar and eventually vacate his position leaving the Red Sox organization a smoldering ruin in his wake. “Trader Dave” they call him. He’s like a shopkeeper in a video game. He stands around all day at the counter and will unquestioningly sell you everything he owns and more, because, he exists not for his own benefit but yours.

As an example for this, they bring the Detroit Tigers, a team Dombrowski was General Manager of for some 14 years. It’s difficult to describe the dire straights Detroit was going through and indeed would go through under Dombrowski’s first few years at the helm, but you’ve probably heard about their 2003 campaign in which they lost an American League all-time record 119 games. Following this, Dombrowski embarked on a major and far-reaching rebuild of the franchise which saw them come back to win the AL pennant in 2006 and play in the World Series. A remarkable turnaround, by any stretch of the imagination.

All this, of course, cost Detroit, as would further years of Dombrowski investment. The Tigers would remain in contention but the price was the farm system as it currently sits as empty as their trophy cabinet. That’s the history, now here’s why the present is different – this may seem a little too obvious, but Boston isn’t Detroit. Different locations, different environments, everything is so objectively not the same that I find it impossible to countenance the idea that Dombrowski is trying to treat them both with the same medicine.

The rebuild required for the Tigers was so sweeping that it required bleeding every drop of young blood the organization had. Look at the Red Sox and it becomes glaringly obvious that they have a young team, ready to compete but lacking a few more pieces to the puzzle. Namely pitching. When you’ve already got Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart, Travis Shaw, Brock Holt and Eduardo Rodriguez locked up for many years, you really are looking at putting the cherry on top. It seems bizarre, but it’s true, your last place Red Sox are ready for the postseason again and Dombrowski has an easier job than an ice cream taster.

The Red Sox have such vast resources at their disposal it’s a wonder they didn’t just buy the San Diego Padres and make it a cleaner job. Flush with cash and teaming with talent, Dombrowski has inherited a system designed already to succeed and with infinite protections against failure. I’m not sure Dombrowski could sell the farm even if he wanted to. He has financial resources on par with the upper echelons of MLB general managers. He has young players so great in quantity and quality that the prospects ranked numbers 5-8 are good enough to be the very best in any other system. I can’t fathom a binge that removes from the level of depth available to Boston today or in its future, this isn’t Detroit and the Red Sox aren’t the Tigers.

Dombrowski hasn’t declared open season for the farm and clearly isn’t willing to give up everything to get what he wants. Examples are rife and freely available. Cincinnati Reds closer Aroldis Chapman was dangled but the premium was ultimately too much for a year’s rental, even for Chapman. Peter Gammons states that Dombrowski approached the Oakland A’s some three times about young ace Sonny Gray and has sought out the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox about Carlos Carrasco and Chris Sale respectively. In all these cases he was rebuffed by the extortionate prices demanded:

“Dombrowski has tirelessly scoured the game for a top starter. He tried Billy Beane three times before accepting that Sonny Gray is not being traded. The White Sox, understandably, want 20% of a winning team for Chris Sale. The Indians aren’t trading Carlos Carrasco without two or three significant pieces. Hey, with a four man rotation that averages better than a strikeout an inning, if they can patch their offense, they can be the AL Central Mets.”

So we have yet to see how Kimbrel will perform in Boston, and until such times the jury will be out on whether the investment was worth it, or an overspend after all. That being so, it’s unfair and indeed untrue to suggest Dombrowski will tear down the Boston farm to garner success. Indeed, he doesn’t need to.

Next: Kimbrel isn't worth it

May 19, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel (46) pitches during the ninth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

2) “Kimbrel isn’t worth it”

Now stop. The Red Sox acquired Craig Kimbrel in return for four guys you may not have heard of with names you likely can’t pronounce. Even the Padres front office struggled with Carlos Asuaje’s last name while assuring fans (all five of them) that they came out the winners in the deal. I’m not trying to say to the contrary, but honestly, who are we dealing with here?

Manuel Margot – 21, CF – Margot is the headline in the trade, the number 4 Red Sox prospect on MLB.com and a few steps away from the show at AA Portland. He’s a toolsy, fast, contact-orientated outfielder who has, at least at AA, shown himself to be a fairly decent defensive outfielder and a fairly streaky offensive one. His .276/.324/.419 line for 2015 is good and he’s still very young at 21, but at present Margot is raw. He shows over-aggression at the plate, swinging at almost everything and being too eager at base running. Ultimately locked out of his natural position by Mookie Betts.

Javier Guerra – 20, SS – Guerra is a sleeper hit, a lesser known talent with perhaps more potential but even less to show for it than Margot. He hit 15 dingers to go with his .279/.329/.449 line at Low A Greenville. That’s certainly impressive, but was unlikely to play up as he would move up the system. Had the stuff to be a plus defensive shortstop, with a good arm and strong fielding ability. Basically a younger Deven Marrero. Probably wouldn’t have seen Fenway for a good while. Even longer with Bogaerts and Marrero around.

Logan Allen – 18, LHP – I like Allen, I do. He was a surprise over the slot pickup in the 2015 draft and moved quickly from the GCL to the SS league Lowell Spinners. But let’s be real for a second. He’s very young and is potentially 6 or more years away from the Majors. He has a high floor but also a low ceiling as his three pitch mix lacks a big “out” pitch and his fastball lacks velocity. Still, like I said, he’s very young. A lot of development yet to come for Allen and I don’t imagine the Red Sox will have any opportunity to regret this trade any time soon.

Carlos Asuaje – 23, 2B – A throw-in, to say the least. Asuaje struggled when moved up to AA Portland and never really recovered. His .251/.334/.374 line is reasonable but not for the minor leagues. Unlikely to become anything more than a bench piece, if that. A nice guy with a good clubhouse presence though.

That’s quite a haul, but for those four we got a 27 year old closer called Kimbrel and something, much more.

Kimbrel is elite. His career ERA of 1.63 is the best in baseball history for a reliever who has pitched in at least 250 games. He has maintained a strikeout rate of 35-40% for the last 3 years and is easily counted among the best closers in the game with a career 225 saves in 248 opportunities.

While 2015 may have been, statistically, a down year for Kimbrel at a career high 2.58 ERA, that doesn’t really tell the whole story. He struggled early on with the Padres in the year with the change in parks and the poor San Diego defence. As the season went on though, Kimbrel settled down and started to dominate. And when Kimbrel dominates, it’s by way of the K. In his final month for San Diego, Kimbrel pitched 9 innings in 9 games and fanned 19 of 40 batters, with 7 others retired by ground balls and only 6 getting hits. His speed increased to an average 98 (!) MPH in 2015 and he, on his own merits, will make an instant and real difference to Boston’s fortunes going forward.

But this isn’t a case of the Red Sox now no longer having a 9th inning, on the contrary, the game could now well be locked up by the 7th. With Kimbrel’s arrival, Boston now have one of the most potent 7-8-9s in baseball, with Koji Uehara taking over as setup man and Junichi Tazawa on hand for the 7th. This flexibility is pivotal.

The Boston bullpen was as big a contributing factor to the sinking ship that was 2015 as any other, averaging a 4.24 ERA (even with Koji bringing it down) compared to the league average of 3.71. In fact, the Red Sox’ woeful starters were far closer to the mark than the relievers were when all was said and done. Improving the pitching relief was key to turning things around for 2016 and with Tazawa, Uehara and now Kimbrel taking over, the entire flaming dumpster fire that was the Sox bullpen has been extinguished with one single trade.

So yes, Kimbrel is elite. The prospects we traded for him? Not yet. While, again, it’s impossible to fully judge if Kimbrel was worth the cost until we’ve seen him in action at Fenway, that doesn’t stop some prospect-hoarding analysts such as ESPN’s Keith Law from declaring that the Padres made out “like bandits”. While many share that opinion, what isn’t in discussion is Kimbrel’s talent. He will make an impact and right now that’s exactly what Boston needs.

Next: Goodbye Red Sox Farm

3) “So long Boston Farm System, we barely knew you”

OK here’s the fun part of the article, despite the ramifications of this trade and how strongly you may feel about them, we can all gather together round the warm glow of awesome surrounding those who remain.

I mean, seriously, it’s not a stretch at all to suggest the Red Sox still have a top 3 farm system in baseball. You’ve got MLB.com’s 7th rated prospect Yoan Moncada around, who you’ve probably heard of before and for good reason. Moncada is a true, 5-tool superstar second baseman who has the skill to play elsewhere. He hits for power, he gets on base a lot and he steals extra bases an almost other-worldly amount of time thanks to his lightning speed. He’s only 20 but is easily among the very best prospects in baseball.

Oh, and just behind him is Rafael Devers, a 19 year old who makes a hobby of embarrassing hitters averaging 2 years older than him at Greenville. He plays at third and does a reasonable job from a defensive point of view, but his true value is in his monster bat. He hits consistently with super-fast bat speed and super-strong pop, clubbing homers and extra base hits with ease. It’ll be a while before we see him, but watch out Pablo Sandoval.

It’s not all just bats down there, Anderson Espinoza is a 17 (17!) year old right handed pitcher who is easily the most precocious player in low A. He throws a fastball in the high 90s that has touched 100 MPH, which is simply stunning for someone of his age and development. Not only velocity but he has amazing control and his fastball comes with knee-buckling sink and bite. His curveball and changeup are just as capable at generating swings and misses and as such he has a ceiling as high as your imagination allows.

Not just Espinoza, but don’t forget about Michael Kopech, a 19 year old right handed hurler the Sox took in the first round of the 2014 draft. Kopech also throws a fastball in the upper 90s and has a devastating slider. Kopech missed half the season after testing positive for using a banned substance, but is not to be underestimated as he sits second only to Espinoza for pitching talent in the system.

Hey, you guys remember Andrew Benintendi, right? The Red Sox first round, 7th pick in the 2015 draft. Well old Benny Baseball raked in Lowell, got moved up to Greenville and well, is raking there too. Slugging .351/.430/.581 and hitting 4 dingers in only 19 games at Low A make him a cert to start next year in Salem. The Providence Journal pegs him to move rapidly through the ranks ala New York Mets’ Michael Conforto. We could see Benintendi as an outfielder in Boston in 2017 or perhaps earlier. Sorry Margot.

What is the unique connection between these players? Why, they are all younger than 24 and along with Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Rodriguez and Henry Owens they are all locked in with the Red Sox for the long term. As Providence Journal beat writer Brian MacPherson tweets:

So basically, Boston enjoys a boatload of young talent, many of whom are ready for the show right now and others who are waiting in the wings to cover the cracks. Added to that is Kimbrel, who is 27 and still devastatingly brilliant. Is the farm system done? Not even close. It may have lost some depth but that depth exists to make the Red Sox better, whether by use or by trade. Right now, that depth provided Dombrowski with exactly what he needed to get one of the most automatic closers in baseball history and transform the bullpen in one fell swoop.

Next: Hanley Ramirez to First Base - I've seen worse

It’s nice to have prospects. It’s even nicer to have prospects and elite talent. I’ll take the latter and, it seems Dombrowski agrees.

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