Boston Red Sox: How Johnny Cueto could be the ace
Oct 9, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Johnny Cueto throws a pitch against the Houston Astros in the first inning in game two of the ALDS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
Imagine you are Boston Red Sox President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski. Not only do you now have a magnificent, time-defying coiffure, and a new suit ready and waiting for any media moment (even on the radio), but also a blank check to turn around the fortunes of one of the most lucrative franchises in baseball.
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Watching the seconds tick down to the offseason with baited breath, you ready the go button for your already decided roster moves. Boston’s going to need a rotation like the New York Mets, so why not just take theirs? Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard at least, shouldn’t be too expensive; we can always get Mookie Betts back later. After that, why not throw in Chris Sale? Sounds like Blake Swihart might get the job done. Final slot goes to David Price, a big sack with a dollar sign on it and 220 million dollars in it should do the job. Now, who has Aroldis Chapman’s cell number?
It sounds perfect doesn’t it? Alas, real life Dombrowski may well still have the immaculately chiseled hairdo and the outfit to match, but as we’ve discussed before, his hands may well be tied as he seeks to rebuild the Red Sox pitching staff for 2016. Despite Boston’s perhaps unrivalled purchasing power, the competition will undoubtedly be fierce and, make no mistake; every team out there either needs an ace or just simply wants (another) one.
It should come as no surprise, then, that mlbtraderumors.com predicts that Boston will end up landing, not Price, not Zack Greinke, but one Johnny Cueto as the free agent to lead their staff:
“Johnny Cueto – Red Sox. Five years, $115MM. Cueto served as the Reds’ ace for many years until the Royals acquired him in July, removing his qualifying offer eligibility. Prior to the trade, he went two weeks between starts due to an elbow issue, but avoided the DL. Cueto was not the dominant force the Royals expected, as he posted a 4.76 ERA in 13 regular season starts and pitched poorly in two of his four postseason outings. The righty capped his season with a complete game to take Game 2 of the World Series. Cueto’s performance since August may have knocked down his free agent value, leaving teams wary of guaranteeing a sixth year. He could still be the ace the Red Sox are seeking, as predicted by five of seven MLBTR writers”
This doesn’t necessarily mean that Cueto is for sure heading to Boston, you may well be relieved to hear. Even so, we know already, for better or worse, he will be a target for the Red Sox this offseason and many feel that this will be the Red Sox most realistic option, at least in free agency.
Now, as noted above, Cueto struggled following his move to the Royals and, perhaps more worryingly, the American League. That price/contract guesstimate is vastly lower than what one would have imagined Cueto could command only half a year ago. Perhaps he would be looking at even half as much again. That’s not smoke and mirrors, his performance has dropped unquestionably and so has his demand.
Even so, I want to take a closer look at Cueto and make a case, perhaps against my better judgement, as to why he may be a better fit in Boston, why his struggles on the mound of late may not be indicative of anything and maybe, just maybe, why a five year contract at 115-140 million may be a steal after all. Let’s step in to the real shoes of Dombrowski – feel those soft soles? That’s real leather, son.
Next: His stuff
May 20, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) pitches during the fourth inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
His Stuff
It has to be noted that very few pitchers successfully make the jump from the National League to the American League. The easy-out pitcher is replaced by somebody who not only can hit, but exists for no other reason than to hit, the DH. While that may seem obvious, it can come as a serious culture shock to pitchers and the pressure can make them nervous and ultimately affect their pitching style, strategy or both.
Now Cueto didn’t actually exhibit any signs of this at all, at first anyway. When he was first traded to the Royals, he sat with a stingy 2.62 ERA, a reliever-like WHIP of 0.93 and had just finished shutting out the Colorado Rockies for 8 innings. Though there were concerns about his arm during the first half of the season, he still threw a complete game shutout, allowing only 2 hits to the Washington Nationals on July 7. I’ll take it.
His debut for Kansas was a little less dominant however, giving up 7 hits and 3 earned runs in 6 innings. Keep in mind though, this was the perfect example of a trial by fire. He was facing the then burning hot Toronto Blue Jays, who went on a tear unlike any other after the All-Star Break, added a plus 89 to their run differential that same month and moved into first in AL East and MLB for hitting. Oh and it was in the Roger’s Center, Ding Dong City.
After that start, Cueto settled down a bit, including throwing another complete game shutout, this time against the Detroit Tigers. It was only on August 21 that things went south against, you guessed it, your Boston Red Sox. The Sox ended up taking the game 7-2, 6 runs charged to Cueto, including an up-in-the-zone fastball clubbed into the Monster seats by Josh Rutledge.
After that embarrassment Cueto never really recovered, giving up 6 earned runs again in his next game, then 4, then 5, then 7. Ouch. After that, Cueto somewhat settled down again for the rest of the regular season, but the damage was done. His postseason was similarly up and down, being rocked for 8 runs in 2 innings against the Blue Jays, but finishing up with a 2 hit complete game against the New York Mets in the World Series.
By now, you’re probably thinkin, is that the kind of ace we want in Boston? But remember, we are wearing Dombrowski’s brogues and when it comes to an ace for the Red Sox, he’s looking at the bigger picture, if not the bigger pitcher.
The good news is that the concerns for Cueto’s arm were unfounded. His fastball speed has remained consistent. His four-seamer sits around 93-94 MPH and he is comfortable throwing it at any count. Cueto, it should be noted, has a six pitch arsenal and has multiple delivery methods (more on this later) but his two-seam and four-seam fastballs, with their impeccable control, still remain his bread and butter.
Now, during those weeks that Cueto noticeably struggled, his usual command was nowhere to be seen and perhaps worse, his fastball speed was dropping to 88-89 on the two-seam and 90-91 on the four. For somebody who relies on the fastball, that drop in velocity is critical. A cursory glance at the two postseason games in which he exceled, against the Astros and Mets, shows he pounded them early with his revitalized 94 MPH fastball and was then able to generate swings and misses from his changeup late in the counts. His changeup, it must be said, is thrown from the same arm-slot, with similar delivery, but with a positively filthy late-life drop at the end.
What is the reason for the swing in Cueto’s velocity and fortunes? Jeff Passan at Yahoo! Sports writing after his dominating outing against the Astros, said the following:
“…Cueto vowed, he was going to throw as hard as he could from the first pitch. No more first-inning procrastination, starting with fastballs at 91 and 89 and 90 and 91 and 90 miles per hour, like he had his last five starts. The Astros were going to see why the Royals traded for him. The Royals were going to see why they traded for him.”
Much has been made of why Cueto’s speed has come and gone. What is known for sure is that when it’s there, he’s as dominating against American League opponents as National League opponents. Certainly he would have his work cut out for him in AL East, perhaps the most difficult division to pitch in of the lot. Still, if one assumes that much of Cueto’s struggles come from a lack of feeling settled, an absence of the conviction that he had while at Cincinnati (as Passan alludes), then in my opinion a fair case could be made for a return to form in Boston.
Next: He wants to pitch for the Red Sox
Aug 21, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
He wants to pitch for the Red Sox
This one may have flown under the radar a bit, but in an interview with Boston media, prior to his being unceremoniously thrashed by the Red Sox, Cueto expressed a desire to actually come to Fenway during free agency. As reported by WEEI’s Rob Bradford:
“It depends,” said Cueto on if he would sign with the Red Sox after this season. “Because I’m a free agent, and I’m just going to pick the best choice to go. The main thing — I would like to come here because it’s a championship-caliber team.” “Yeah, that’s what I think,” he said when he believed the Red Sox might be a landing spot when trade rumors started swirling prior to this season. “I think, ‘I’ll wait for Boston.’”
OK so his English is sketchy and he was being translated by Hanley Ramirez, but that’s pretty frank for a player who had only just joined a club already planning for a World Series run. Up until that point he had managed a pretty stellar 1.80 ERA in four starts for the Royals. After that point, he may as well have not turned up.
I’m not suggesting that Cueto didn’t show interest for the Royals based on a desire to want to play for the Red Sox, but his desire to want to pitch here is a solid advantage over the strained relationship with Price and the complicated health consequences that could arise with Greinke.
On top of that, Cueto has a lot of friends in Boston. Ramirez is joined by David Ortiz, both of whom speak his language and call him their friend. Perhaps more significantly however is the presence of Red Sox legend Pedro Martinez, who was Cueto’s hero and role model growing up in the Dominican. Much of Cueto’s pitching mechanics are modeled on Pedro’s and having Pedro around as a guide, instructor and influence could bring out the best in Cueto. And Cueto’s best is pretty amazing.
Though it’s unsure at present how much contribution will come from Ryan Hanigan in 2016, he caught Cueto for years with the Reds and the two would be a familiar battery. Red Sox defensive catcher Christian Vazquez, mother tongue Spanish, would also make a solid and reliable partner.
In the end, it would make sense that Cueto would want to be at Fenway. Despite his struggles, he would still easily slot above the rest in the rotation, would have familiar and friendly faces around and have the comfort of knowing that he will be an integral part of a team that is not only aiming for a world series, but has the resources to actually make one.
Next: Fan support
Jul 12, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) delivers a pitch during the second inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
The fans will grow to want him too
Cueto is entertaining, perhaps on a level that doesn’t exist in starting pitching today. He’s not that blank-expression, emotionless pitching machine-esque Rick Porcello, but he’s not the bizarre motions and outlandish antics of Jonathan Papelbon either. He’s enthusiastic in a passionate way. He roars on the mound almost all the time, at himself when he’s pitching poorly, at the umpire when he’s umpiring poorly and at the opponent’s bats when he sends them to the dugout by way of the K.
Cueto is just cool. He’s got awesome dreadlocks. Indeed, dreadlocks done right. Take note, Hanley Ramirez, as Cueto’s dreads are long, brilliant, perfectly formed and yet manage to stay the entire game inside the hat which comes as part of the uniform.
Cueto has amazing form that makes the swings and misses all the sweeter. His pitching mechanics have so many changes that Jeff Passon named them all in an article entitled “Johnny Cueto: The Pitcher so frustrating he makes hitters want to punch strangers”. There’s the traditional, the Tiant, the rocking chair and the quick pitch.
The traditional is as you see – a standard delivery with a slight leg left before flowing into a small after-kick. The most famous of his deliveries and indeed, his most used, is the Tiant. Such named after Luis Tiant, whom he modeled it after; it starts with Cueto turning so his back is to the batter, before uncoiling back to deliver with enhanced speed and movement. It’s a sight to behold. Then there’s the rocking chair, it’s like the Tiant only longer, Cueto holds the turn for an extra second, all but to the point of balk before unleashing the pitch. Finally the quick pitch, in which much to his opponent’s amazement, Cueto simply throws the pitch without any additional delivery.
Bottom line is that Cueto is one of the most entertaining pitchers in baseball today. More than that even. More like enigmatic. He has the flare, the presence and the stuff to be everything an ace should be. Intimidating on the mound as much as dominating. The Fenway faithful would doubtless find him a delight to watch and this should enhance his game as well.
You see one pattern emerged quite clearly from Cueto’s struggles with Kansas City; he fed off the cheers from the home games far more than the jeers when out of town. With Boston’s strong support both home and away, Cueto would be more easily settled into his grove and that grove is the funkiest in all of baseball.
In the end though, after spending some time walking with the elite, as Dombrowski is wont to do, we aren’t any further on in knowing how he will tackle the situation of finding an ace for the Red Sox. Every option, be it free agency or trade, is on the table and Dombrowski is likely to kick many tires before the hot stove has burned itself out. One thing is for certain though, he wants an ace, a leader of the pack to guide the younger players like Eduardo Rodriguez and Joe Kelly, and bring Boston back to contention again. Johnny Cueto may not be the ace he chooses in the end, but make no mistake, he can be.