Red Sox breakout selections for 2016

Aug 26, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Hanley Ramirez (13) helmet comes off mid swing during the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

Every season brings the potential for individual and group failure. In 2015, the Red Sox certainly gave us more group failure than anyone could have anticipated. Coming off the disater of 2014 it was back-to-back misery.

Players come in and sometimes they are new to the team and simply fail. Others come in and do the opposite. A cosmic dance for baseball with a very thin line that impacts performance. An injury, marital problems, sheer laziness or just some quirky anomaly that ruins a season and, hopefully, does not set in motion a career trend.

For the negative there is always the positive that surfaces. For Boston, the hope eternal was the sudden plethora of young players of varying degrees of promise. That was the focus during the season as management cut ranks with several veterans of note and some that were nothing more than an item to be forgotten on the transaction page.

This coming season there will be player’s who both breakdown and some who will breakout. This will be a list of four that I expect to pick it up a notch or several notches.

Sep 26, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Rusney Castillo (38) hits a double during the sixth inning of the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The mantra from the recent and latest “Great Recession” was some are “Too big to fail.” The same can apply to baseball when a player has demonstrated the physical tools, yet seems a step behind than a step ahead. This is Rusney Castillo.

The Red Sox gave Castillo enough money to put a healthy down payment on the purchase of his hometown of Ciego de Avila, Cuba or maybe even Havana itself? So far the returns have been questionable.

Now 28-years-old, Castillo is coming off what should have been a breakout season with even the possibility of being Rookie of The Year. The slash line was .253/.288/.359 with five home runs and 29 RBI in 80 games. Not bad numbers until you realize that the Red Sox paid north of 11 million for it.

Watching Castillo it seems his swing had more holes than a Prairie Dog colony. The deeper stats show a 18.7 K% and a dismal 4.5% BB%. A wRC+ of 72 and the mean is 100. The WAR is barely above null at 0.4. A redeeming feature is a UZR/150 at 19.2.

Castillo seemed to have a knack for playing left field at Fenway Park. However, that should be tempered since anything was an improvement over Hanley Ramirez. There are seals at the New England Aquarium who could navigate the field with ease compared to the mysteries Hanley presented.

So start from the top. The defense is no issue. You will get the occasional mind-boggling attempts, but overall Castillo can handle the field. Now for the hitting.

Castillo hit in Cuba, Arizona Fall League, Winter Ball, Pawtucket, International play and even briefly in Boston in 2014. I expect that to surface and now for the prediction: Look for Rusney to hit .290 and go 20+ in home runs.

Sep 14, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Matt Barnes (68) pitches during the sixth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Baltimore Orioles defeated Boston Red Sox 2-0. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Red Sox managed a bullpen that seemly reeks. There is no way to describe the stench emanating from the bullpen. I would strongly have urged the Red Sox to provide HazMat suits to the first few rows of the bleachers.

This is a prime target area for Dave Drombrowski and there is one player – a former first-round pick – who I fully expect to surprise. Enter Matt Barnes and his 5.44 ERA in 2015. OK, I understand, a Barnes entrance into a game was a time for joy if you were the opposition.

Is there absolutely anything I can mine from his statistics that give a glimmer of hope?

Let’s go to the velocity. On his fastball it was a vFA (fastball velocity) of 94.7%. The curve checked in at 81.9 and the change at 86.2. I will avoid all the vC and vCH since it hurts my eyes. Barnes relies on all three pitches with the heat being thrown 62.7%, curve 21.9% and change at 15.2%. Three pitch selection, that is, no doubt, the result of being geared as a starter.

A starter or relief? Barnes has too much of a power arm to give up on. His 8.16 K/9 is decent. His 3.14 BB/9 needs improvement. Barnes can pitch multiple innings and in September Barnes tossed 10.1 innings allowing one run. Look for Barnes to step it up and be among the first called out of the bullpen.

Oct 4, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Rick Porcello (22) delivers in the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

One of the responsibilities of the Attorney General’s Office in Massachusetts is to investigate consumer fraud. I don’t know if the Red Sox were victims when they signed Rick Porcello? Or were they willing accomplices? Maybe it was just a desire to say “We won” with the trade that brought Porcello to Boston.

What happened? You look at the metrics and what jumps out for me in a comparison to Porcello’s 2014 (15-13, 3.43) is the HR/9 that went from 0.79 to 1.31 in 2015. Every game you just knew one would leave the park. The BABIP was .298 in 2014 and jumped to .332 in Boston. The WAR shrunk from 2.8 to 1.6. I have been educated by the seamheads on the importance of xFIP as a true indicator and, voilà, it was stable with a 3.68 in 2014 to 3.72.

Next: Red Sox free agent target: Matt Wieters

The real indicator to me is the second half statistics that take into account a post R & R visit to the disabled list. Porcello went 4-6 with a 3.53 ERA and a WHIP of 1.29. Not great numbers, but numbers that one could associate with a middle rotation pitcher. Look for Porcello to keep on that track with a season similar to 2014 with the Tigers.

Sources: Fangraphs.