Red Sox spare part outfield options
Nov 1, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) grounds out in the 12th inning against the New York Mets in game five of the World Series at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The latest to surface from the rumor mill is the Red Sox may have a significant interest in pursuing Alex Gordon of the Kansas City Royals – a prime free agent possibility. But what about the very basic complementary piece? Spare parts that apply to the outfield and are a part of that management equation to seek additional support that is not necessarily an All-Star or a regular elsewhere -essentially a fourth outfielder. The early prognostication is that the outfield will resemble what was presented in the latter games of 2015. The configuration of Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley and Rusney Castillo. Defensively, this is an excellent group that can be interchangeable – unless signings and trades take place.
Defensively, according to fangraphs, the Red Sox outfield was ranked seventh among the 15 American League teams. The defensive UZR/150 was -0.7. That may seem a bit harsh until you go a wee bit deeper. The right field contingent was second in the league with a UZR/150 of 9.6 and center field was fifth at UZR/150 of 1.5.
So two out of three ain’t bad unless a ball is stroked to left field and that is where UZR/150 was -3.2. That remedy for left field malfeasance was corrected when Hanley Ramirez – ranked dead last among qualifiers and non-qualifiers – was removed from further destruction.
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What surprised me is Betts checking in at a UZR/150 of zero. However, Bradley was third in the league at 22.2 and Castillo sixth at 19.2. The eyeball test showed that all three had the range, arm, acrobatic skills and gap closing speed combined with instincts to be an élite defensive outfield.
The glove is one item of equipment and the bat is another. The Boston outfielders finished ninth in the American League in WAR at 19.1, but that was certainly skewered with some members departed and others in a flux. The “Big Three” as now formulated have mixed results. Betts you can simply put down as an All-Star for 2016. Bradley came back to the nest and lit it up until a dismal September left a pocket full of question marks. Castillo may or may not be Yoenis Cespedes.
The Red Sox need some outfield depth if non Betts performers cause some fan hand wringing. This would mean beating the trade market or free agent listing for a player who will not have embarrassing at bats, be versatile enough to cover a minimum of two outfield spots and will not go into a personal funk if 300+ at bats are not reached.
Now for a few items that may be on the free agent wish list.
September 28, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants pinch hitter Alejandro De Aza (45) hits a sacrifice fly scoring right fielder Marlon Byrd (6, not pictured) for game-winning run during the 12th inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at AT&T Park. The Giants defeated the Dodgers 3-2 in 12 innings. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Alejandro De Aza: 114 G, 325 AB, .262/.333/.422, 7 HR, 35 RBI, UZR/150 -2.0, WAR 1.2
De Aza was a regular for a few seasons with the White Sox before moving on to the O’s before being shipped to Boston in early June for Joe Gunkel. De Aza became the odd man out in the outfield for the fading Red Sox and was dealt on 8/31 to the Giants for Luis Ysla.
De Aza certainly made a positive impression in his Boston stay with some tough at bats, excellent defensive work, strong-arm and hustle. The Boston stat was .292/.347/.484 with seven home runs and 25 RBI while playing right and left field. De Aza also had a knack for triples as he finished the season with seven, of which five came while with Boston.
De Aza, a 31-year-old lefty, can play all three outfield positions and did manage to show some quite positive ability to handle the very testy right field at Fenway Park. With the bat De Aza is best suited to face right-handers since his career average is .238 against lefties.
The time spent in Boston made an impression on the fans and the team. De Aza also appears comfortable with being a platoon player who could give you 300-400 decent at bats during the year. De Aza is coming off a five million dollar contract and will generate interest in the free agent market for anyone, especially Boston, seeking a proven complimentary piece for the outfield.
Sep 29, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Detroit Tigers left fielder Rajai Davis (20) reacts after popping out on a bunt attempt during the ninth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Rajai Davis: 112 G, 341 AB, .258/.306/.440, 8 HR, 30 RBI, UZR/150 8.8, WAR 1.8.
Davis has long been a semi-regular, but at age 35 the right-handed Davis may be seeing a bit less playing time. Davis is traditionally a lead-off hitter using his speed as his main weapon with 322 career steals. The downside is a 2015 BB% of 5.9 and a K% of 20.5 and that is true throughout his career.
The defensive skills of Davis may not be of a Gold Glove caliber, but he is a capable defender who is usually in center field, although he has considerable career time at all three outfield positions. An interesting statistical notation is that after ten seasons Davis’ defensive runs saved figure is exactly zero.
One nugget that stands out in the statistics is Davis is a career .290 hitter at Fenway Park. Davis also pilfered 18 bases in 26 attempts in 2015 so his speed, although diminished, can still be a game factor.
Davis has never been the outfielder that one would expect to be a regular in Boston. The power numbers certainly would not justify any regular status and his speed may be lessened to where that very valuable part to his game – especially infield hits – start to depreciate. Simply put is if Davis becomes a regular outfielder in Boston your season is in a world of trouble.
Coming off a two-year and ten million dollar deal one would expect a substantial reduction in pay for 2016. For Boston, Davis would best fit as a one year bridge to see if the minor league prospects take a step up and to provide short-term backup in case of DL issues.
Sep 22, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Dioner Navarro (30) tags out New York Yankees pinch hitter Chris Young (24) in the ninth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports
Chris Young: 140 G, 318 AB, .252/.320/.453, 14 HR, 42 RBI, UZR/150 -2.5, WAR 1.2
Young is a ten-year veteran who is now slipping into a role of part time outfielder. The right-hander (both ways) will be 32-years-old as the 2016 season begins and looking for further major league employment. Young is an excellent power bat with 169 career home runs, but the downside is the usual with a career average of .235 and 1,050 strikeouts and counting. For 2015 the K% was 20.5.
If one is looking for some upside with Young look no further than Fenway Park where Young has a career .344 average. The downside is Young is – at best – an average defender with a career UZR/150 of 1.8. What you will get from Young is a serious threat of clout in the texture of make a mistake and it is prone to disappear into the clutches of fans in the outfield stands.
Young is coming off a one-year deal with New York for 2.5 million and that just may be a figure that will represent a negotiating point for another one-year deal. The question is just what are you willing to give up on the defensive end to add onto the offensive end? As a late inning defensive player Young simply does not accommodate a team’s needs.
Sep 4, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA;Chicago Cubs left fielder Chris Denorfia (15) misses a fly ball hit by an Arizona Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
Chris Denorfia: 103 G, 212 AB, .269/.319/.373, 3 HR, 18 RBI, UZR/150 18.6, WAR 0.8
A ten-year player who has seen service time with five major league teams, so that certainly places the designation of journeyman outfielder as part of his employment package. Denorfia has never been classified as a regular with any team, but certainly fits into the category of complementary piece. The only exception being a career year he had as a member of the Padres in 2013 when he played 144 games
Now 35-years old the right-handed (both ways) Denorfia spent 2015 with the Chicago Cubs seeing outfield duty at all three positions and even getting in 0.1 innings of pitching. Defensively Denorfia can cover ground and has the arm strength to play right and center in Boston and elsewhere. The Red Sox need bullpen help so you never know when a clean 0.1 will impress.
Denorfia will not provide power off the bench or in games in which he starts. His career average is .272, so the hits will come as will the strikeouts. In 2015 the K% was 24.2%, but the career average is significantly lower at 17.1%.
Wheaton College in Norton, Massachusetts is near where I live and I remember seeing Denorfia playing in a few games at that Division III School, so he does have some strong Massachusetts roots – always a plus if you play in Boston.
Denorfia also was the recipient of the San Diego Padres “Heart and Hustle Award” in 2013, so that is always an attention getter for Bostonians who appreciate effort expended.
The Land of The Longshots
Aug 11, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants left fielder Justin Maxwell (43) scores a run after a Houston Astros throwing error during the sixth inning at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Players that certainly fit the mold of regular and not a spare part or fourth or fifth outfielder – yet.
Austin Jackson: 136 G, 491 AB, .267/.311/.387, 9 HR, 48 RBI, UZR/150 8.9, WAR 2.3.
An excellent defender whose career seems to have perpetually stalled. Jackson twice led the American League in triples (2011-12) and managed to also lead in strikeouts (170) in his rookie year. Strikeouts are what is most noted in his career and 2015 saw a 23.9 K% and a BB% of 5.5.
The 28-year-old right-hander (both ways) will sign somewhere with the expectations of being a regular. Don’t expect Boston to be the landing spot despite a .313 career Fenway Park average.
David Murphy: 132 G, 361 AB, .283/.318/.421, 10 HR, 50 RBI, UZR/150 -8.1, WAR 0.3.
One of the original three young outfielders with Boston back ten years ago. Brandon Moss and Jacoby Ellsbury, like Murphy, have moved on. The 34-year-old Murphy is left-handed (both ways) and may be at the point in his career where he is no longer a regular. Coming to Boston is not likely.
Colby Rasmus: 137 G, 432 AB, .238/.314/.475, 25 HR, 61 RBI, UZR/150/0.5, WAR 2.8
Rasmus was part of the Astros wrecking crew and can usually be counted on for 20+ home runs a season. The left-hander hitter and thrower say duty in all three outfield spots in 2015 and at age 29 is looking to cash in with a long-term deal. A 26.1 K% for his career.
Justin Maxwell: 100 G, 249 AB, .209/.275/.341, 7 HR, 26 RBI, UZR/150 18.3, WAR 0.5.
Maxwell has mastered the strikeout. An affectionado of the whiff. A career K% of 31.1. If you liked Wily Mo Pena you will love Justin Maxwell. Saw Maxwell once hit a gigantic home run so I popped him in. Maxwell with the Sox in 2016 would mean a long and frustrating season.
Sources: Baseball-reference/fangraphs