Top 5: Closers in 2015 AL East

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Jul 5, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Koji Uehara (19) pitches during the ninth inning of the Boston Red Sox 5-4 win over the Houston Astros at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not sure if such a thing is documented, however I feel confident in suggesting the bullpen is the primary cause of baseball-fuelled rage in homes across the nation. Outside of the umpiring of course. Some day when robot umpires have been rolled out and we’ve all finished laughing at the whole thing, maybe then we’ll understand for sure that all along it was relief pitching that caused us the most headaches. Indeed, I’m getting one just thinking of the converted dumpster fire that was used as a bullpen for the Boston Red Sox in 2015.

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Those last 2-3 innings are critical. Baseball is a game of streaks. One minute you’re hot, the next you’re Pablo Sandoval. It happens so seemingly at random that any change to the status quo or chance for momentum must be seized. It’s up to the bullpen to paper the cracks smoothly after a tiring and perhaps faltering starting pitcher starts to lose command, speed or both.

Behind them all stands the closer, a fancy title for the guy with the ubiquitous task of handling the last three outs from a close victory. Usually the position, in saving the best for last tradition, is the most capable of the bunch from the pen. More than that is required, however. Nerves of steel to handle the pressure and arms of thunder to handle the outs, the closer is the de facto ace of the bullpen, the final piece in the puzzle.

Of course because baseball loves seemingly pointless statistics and is wont to invent them for just about any old reason, we also have the save (SV) count for each pitcher. Every time a reliever closes a game with his team ahead by 3 runs or less, they pick up a Save. The statistic is fairly important in general, but not entirely relevant to our discussion.

I want to sit down with you and look at the top 5 closers in the AL this year, the who’s who of 9th inning specialists in the most lucrative league of the lot. Of course, I will give consideration to how many saves each closer has obtained, however, as the number of saves is somewhat dependent on how well the team has played (giving the pitcher the opportunity to get the save) it doesn’t tell the full story of each reliever’s ability. Call this the Red Sox clause, if you want.

Primarily, I would like to focus on advanced sabermetrics. Chief among these will be each pitcher’s ERA, FIP, WAR and K/9. Lesser importance will be afforded to, as mentioned above, SV (with save opportunities), IP, and opponent’s BA. Also, for fun, we’ll throw in that invisible “It Factor” which exams the unique swag-esque quality, essential for every would-be ace, that each closer brings to the party. Let’s begin.

Next: 5 - Brad Boxberger

Sep 18, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays relief pitcher Brad Boxberger (26) throws a pitch during the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Baltimore Orioles 8-6. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

5) Brad Boxberger – Tampa Bay Rays

ERA 3.71, FIP 4.26, WAR 0, K/9 10.57, SV 41, SVO 47, BABIP .296

It Factor – All Star closer who probably shouldn’t be used as a non-closer too

Look at that FIP, it’s really bad for a relief pitcher, never mind a closer. Now check out the SV. Spoiler alert, that’s the highest number you’re going to see in this list. Yep, Boxberger racked up 47 saves, the highest in the American League and 4th highest in all of baseball. Now if ever I needed justification that the stat doesn’t necessarily reflect on a pitcher’s ability, this would be it.

That’s not to say Boxberger is Brad…er…bad. On the contrary. His K/9 of 10.57, even despite some of his struggles, is a really solid number that is typical for the best closers in the Majors. He may have blown 6 saves, but when compared to the 41 that he actually converted the number is so small as to be almost moot. So why then is he worth 0 WAR, the baseball nerd way of saying worthless? Where to begin?

Behind the common statistics on Boxberger lie something far more worrying, he had a win-loss record of 4-10. This is worrying, not necessarily for the high number of losses, but for the sheer number of non-save situations that he was called upon to pitch in. The Rays had their share of bullpen problems this year and, unfortunately for Boxberger, refused to commit to him as a permanent closer.

He was used and abused in just about every situation early on in the season and by the time September came around, it started to show. He pitched to the tune of a 7.20 ERA in the month, giving up 9 hits, 8 runs and 3 homers in only 10 innings of work in the month. Ouch.

Suffice it to say, Boxberger’s struggles probably didn’t help Tampa as they slid rapidly down the table with only Boston as the unenviable fig leaf between them and the cellar. The good news for Tampa Bay fans, all three of you, is that likely Boxberger’s struggles are by and large not of his own making. He has the stuff to be a quality closer. His fastball lost some of its pace and his big-out changeup some of its bite, but that can all be put down to fatigue from which he will recover. He pitched some 63 innings in 69 games on the year, which is a lot for any reliever, let alone a closer.

Who knows what the offseason holds for Tampa, but expect Boxberger to be a feature in their 2016 bullpen, if perhaps not quite as frequent as in 2015.

Next: 4 - Roberto Osuna

Sep 25, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Roberto Osuna (54) throws a pitch during the ninth inning in a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

4) Roberto Osuna – Toronto Blue Jays

ERA 2.58, FIP 3.02, WAR 1.3, K/9 9.69, SV 20, SVO 23, BABIP .240

It Factor – Precocious phenom on the way to the top

A cursory glance at Roberto Osuna’s stats paint a picture of an average, though not spectacular, closer. Alas, the stats don’t tell you that easel upon which the painting is done is that of a 20 year old. When you consider that, and that this was his first year in the show, then I’m sure you must have a different view of the artwork.

Osuna has had an amazing breakout season, all things considered. His fastball is electric, sitting between 95-96 MPH and can only get more potent. His secondaries are also above average, with an equally used slider and changeup getting mixed with a very occasional cutter to throw off hitters. Osuna is a very complete closer, perhaps projecting to be one of the most in this list.

For now though, the painting is just as you see. Average, but not spectacular. That said, it could have been something much more. After an August worth a stingy 0.79 ERA (Osuna only gave up 1 run on 6 hits in 11 innings), he would struggle in September to the tune of a 4.91 ERA, conceding 6 runs in, again, 11 innings of work and, perhaps more worryingly, 4 dingers. Questions were being asked about his suitability for the closer role, with the Blue Jays winning AL East and favorites among many to take on the World Series. Such questions were ultimately unfounded. Osuna took his 1 save opportunity in the postseason and converted it, pitching pretty well on the whole in 7 games he was called on.

One black mark stands out. On October 23, Osuna came in against the Kansas City Royals and gave up a run on two hits in one inning. Not great, but not dreadful. Except that run was the winning run and that made Osuna the losing pitcher. And thus the Blue Jays and Osuna were done for the year. As the old saying goes; in life we have two chief regrets, when we do good nobody remembers and when we do bad nobody forgets.

Even so, it’s important to look at the bigger picture. Osuna impressed enough that almost certainly his role as closer in Toronto is cemented for the foreseeable future. That’s more than enough for a 20 year old. You probably hadn’t heard of Osuna before 2015, but expect to hear a lot more of him for a long time to come.

Next: 3 - Koji Uehara

Jul 31, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Koji Uehara (19) pitches during the ninth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

3) Koji Uehara – Boston Red Sox

ERA 2.23, FIP 2.44, WAR 1.3, K/9 10.49, SV 25, SVO 27, BABIP .248

It Factor: Koji Time

Koji is a closer’s closer, he thrives on the moment and is almost inordinately better in it than not. Indeed, his stat line truly does a disservice to his overall performance solely as a closer this year as it lumps together the many mediocre outings he had in non-save situations. Such situations, quite unlikely the problems faced by Brad Boxberger, were thrust on Koji to keep him sharp (due to large swathes of time when the Red Sox found themselves unable to get into any save situations).

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Uehara in 2013 was a revelation. A dominating, lights out closer that operated on a historic level. Between July 9 and September 17 of that year, Koji retired 37 consecutive hitters, which is an all-time record in Boston. His WHIP on the year of 0.57 was the best in history of any pitcher going over 50 innings. And thus Koji Time was born.

While he struggled in 2014, the return of Koji to form in 2015 saw a return in Koji Time and at the ripe old age of 40 he was as automatic as ever. Between June 24 and August 7, Uehara gave up a single run and a mere 6 hits in 16.2 innings of work.His ERA for July was 0.93 and, for August, 0. Good night.

Unfortunately that was it for Uehara’s year. An unfortunate, and how many times did we see this in Boston in 2015, accident occurred with the last out on August 7. Uehara took a splitter back at him on his right hand, ending his season and, perhaps with little coincidence, the Red Sox’ as well.

Even so, there’s so much going for Uehara that it’s hard to say he won’t be around in at least some capacity as a reliever in 2016. Admittedly it helps that the Boston bullpen’s idea of a no-hitter is managing not to hit the batter. His fastball speed may struggle to break 90 MPH, but he’s possibly one of the few for which that doesn’t even really matter. His weapon of choice, the splitter, is one of the nastiest in the business and has the wonderful side effect of producing some awkward, hulking swings and misses. The fastball complements it by sitting high on a hitter expecting the split, making them look equally, if not more so, foolish.

Koji is probably the most fun member on the team, whether it be his ridiculous walk up music, his jumping high fives on his clearly vertically superior teammates or his hilarious interview comments. Everybody loves him. He’s a closer, a teammate and a Red Sox legend. He may no longer be the best in the business, but he’s still plenty good and at 41 you can expect his star to shine over Boston once more.

Next: 2 - Zach Britton

Sep 13, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles relief pitcher Zach Britton (53) pitches during the ninth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles won 8-2. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

2) Zach Britton – Baltimore Orioles

ERA 1.92, FIP 2.01, WAR 2.0, K/9 10.83, SV 36, SVO 41, BABIP .308

It Factor: Rule Britton-ia, Britton-ia rules the saves!

I have to confess, this was a tough call. Britton enjoyed a stellar season, his best yet for the Orioles, was an AL All-Star and has a pretty solid claim to being the best in the league at what he does. His ERA, FIP, WAR and K/9 are all among the best in the Majors for a closer and there’s very little for me to poke holes at here, for a change.

OK, he had a somewhat off month in August, if you could call it that, posting a 3.27 ERA on the whole for the month. But then he followed it with a 1.86 in September and a big, fat 0 for 3 games in October. Britton’s dominance hasn’t gone unrecognized, as he was runner-up for Reliever of the Year Award for the second year running. His main weapon of choice? The sinker. With a mouth watering strikeout rate of 31.8%, his sinker is just about as nasty as you’ll see. On top of that, he only walked 5.5% of the batters he faced and his FIP-, as per Fangraphs, is the best in baseball. Automatic.

It wasn’t all so rosy for Britton though. Rewind to 2011 and Britton was Wade Miley without the hair; a middle to back end of the rotation starting pitcher with a straight average 11 wins, 11 losses and 4.61 ERA. When put in the pen, Britton was a different beast. His fastball played up from a 92 MPH average to 95, this year it was faster than ever flashing 96-97 MPH. His changeup was shelved entirely and his fastball control, mixed occasionally with his slider, became the poison.

His SV was doubtless affected by left hand muscle tightness in September, coupled with the same problem as the Red Sox in a lack of save opportunities being handed to him. Even so, Britton is an elite closer, an ace of the bullpen and one of the best in the business. Though much talk of having him reconverted to a starter was made this year, his dominance in the 9th inning is likely too great for the Orioles to pass up going forward.

Next: 1 - Andrew Miller

Oct 6, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees relief pitcher Andrew Miller (48) throws against the Houston Astros during the eighth inning in the American League Wild Card playoff baseball game at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

1) Andrew Miller – New York Yankees

ERA 1.90, FIP 2.16, WAR 2.0, K/9 14.59, SV 36, SVO 38, BABIP .241

It Factor: Still the best in the league

Zach Britton, we learned, was runner up for Reliever of the Year 2015. Who did he lose out to? Why Andrew Miller of course.

A cursory glance at Miller’s stat line for the year seems pretty normal, much in line with Britton’s, until you come to that K/9 and spew your coffee. You’re not reading that incorrectly. Miller sent away batters by way of the K some 40.7% of the time, an absolutely obscene rate that is all but unrivaled in baseball today. Craig Kimbrel, for comparison, has a strikeout rate of 36.4%, itself completely absurd, but well below the high bar set by Miller. Perhaps the only reliever who can rival, and indeed best, Miller is Aroldis Chapman, himself with a 41.7% strikeout rate (it had been a whopping 52.5% in 2014!) and a hilarious K/9 of 15.74.

Even so, Miller is easily the top of the pile in the American League, a league far more challenging to pitchers as a whole. In fact, AL East is perhaps the hardest of the bunch to be an effective pitcher and Miller takes it all in his stride.

Miller, of course, is no stranger to Boston. A major bullpen piece for the Red Sox from 2011 through 2012 when, as he was on the verge of free agency, he was traded to Baltimore for one Eduardo Rodriguez. Perhaps former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington’s most lasting trade. Yet certainly now the gaping void left by Miller’s departure is felt more acutely than ever. Boston has lacked an effortlessly solid and endlessly capable reliever to just come in and shut the opponent down ever since.

During his tenure with the Red Sox, Miller’s fastball took centre stage. Sitting at 95-96 MPH it shows knee-buckling bite and was thrown interchangeably with his trademark slider. Since joining the Yankees this year and settling into his role as a closer, his slider has stepped forward and become the more used pitch of the two. Both pitches, it must be said, are fully capable of being all but unhittable on any given day and can all-too-easily cause many a swing and miss, as the numbers show.

As the Red Sox, under new President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski, look to rebuild the bullpen this year and potentially add a closer to back up Koji, they will certainly be hunting for someone of the calibre of Miller. He is the perfect, flawless closer. He comes in and shuts the door. He’s done it consistently and shows no signs of letting up. That’s why he’s number 1 on this list and number 1 in the Yankee bullpen.

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