The Red Sox ace minus option
The search for an ace has been debated and tossed around among the Red Sox fans and media ad nauseam with Dave Dombrowski making a virtual blood oath to Red Sox Nation to bring one home to roost at Fenway Park in 2016. Failure is not an option, DD.
The usual suspects have been debated with Sonny Gray, Chris Sale, Matt Harvey, David Price, Johnny Cueto and Zack Greinke the most notable cast of characters that fit the description of ace. But just what is an ace? To paraphrase Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart “I know one when I see one.”
The Red Sox may have such a product on their payroll in Eduardo Rodriguez who had a breakout season in 2015. The caution flag is out for a breakout can often be followed by a breakdown season. That tumultuous frustration has happened to every team in baseball. Great arms do not necessarily come with stable minds and the Boston environment can place any pitcher of merit onto a ledge at Millennium Place. Even the bon vivant, David Wells, found the intrusive fans of Red Sox Nation and the persistent scrutiny of the media to even tax his normally placid baseball exterior.
Is there a second tier to the ace madness? The possibility of pitching sloppy seconds? Those that are somehow devoid of ace magic impressed upon them? Pitchers who are as Maxwell Smart would say: “Missed it by that much.” In some cases it is the pitchers who have taken a step back and it other cases those who may take that step forward and be knighted a true ace.
Now for a look at a few select pitching bodies that could be in Boston if the “Top Six” go nowhere or elsewhere.
Sep 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) delivers a pitch to an Atlanta Braves batter in the first inning of their game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Jordan Zimmermann: 13-10, 201.2 IP, 204 H, 82 R, 164 K, 39 BB, 3.66 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.75 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, 3.0 WAR
Zimmermann was supposed to be hot property after 2015. Coming off two All-Star seasons and leading the National League in wins for 2013, Zimmermann had the credentials to cash in with a substantial paycheck. But 2015 was a step back with the sourest numbers being hits exceeding innings pitched and a career high in 24 home runs allowed.
The real plus with Zimmermann is he will not frustrate anyone with a stream of walks. In 2014 Zimmerman posted the lowest BB/9 in the National League at 1.3. You examine the deeper metrics and nothing really pops out that shows significant degrading. The velocity is down, but not significantly. Contact and swing percentages for the last four seasons align as do pitch selection. But batting average has jumped from .235 in 2013 to .260 in 2015.
The 29-year-old (30 in May) right-hander managed to surrender more hits than innings pitched for the first time in his career. Is that a trend? Should that be a buyer beware? The American League East litmus test is rather small with 9.1 innings at Fenway resulting in 9.64 ERA. In Baltimore 24.1 innings produced 15 earned runs. Take that into consideration.
Another positive about Zimmermann is the no prospect cost since he is a free agent. Likewise tossing a five-year deal in the 100 million range may be risky if 2015 was a harbinger of things to come.
Aug 30, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Stephen Strasburg: 11-7, 127.1 IP, 115 H, 49 R, 155 K, 26 BB, 3.46 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.81 FIP, 2.69 xFIP, 3.4 WAR.
The most significant obstacle to obtaining Strasburg is not players to me moved, any skill set deterioration, but the simple fact that Scott Boras is his agent. If history is any guideline, it is a virtual lock that Strasburg will test the waters of free agency.
The 26-year-old right-hander managed to actually live up to all the advanced billing as being the real deal. Strasburg burst upon major league baseball with a blazing fastball, superb control, a biting curve and a pull the string change-up. Strasburg also brought to the pitching table an arm that went into the OR.
Strasburg missed some time in 2015 after an impressive 2014 season in which he led the National League in starts. Strasburg also led the NL in strikeouts in 2014 and when getting in 30+ starts that should be a battle with Clayton Kershaw. Strasburg had impressive BB/9 and K/9 numbers in 2015 that has shown that he is on the same path of batter destruction as his previous seasons.
The risk is evident in signing Strasburg for the long haul and the possibility that the injuries may consistently surface. But a healthy Strasburg, who can get 30+ starts is a true ace level pitcher.
Sep 30, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59) delivers in the second inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Carlos Carrasco: 14-12, 183.2 IP, 154 H, 74 R, 216 K, 43 BB, 3.63 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2.84 FIP, 2.66 xFIP, 4.8 WAR.
Swing and miss stuff from Carrasco with a five pitch repertoire. Carrasco, a 28-year-old right-hander, who had the fifth best fastball velocity in the American League at 94.5 MPH. What also draws some attention is one stat in the ever-expanding universe of metrics – SIERA. That acronym is for Skill-Interactive ERA – say that fast five times. Carrasco was second in the league behind Sale.
Carrasco is either a one season wonder or a late-blooming star who could be a shutdown ace. Was 2015 the breakout year or an illusion? That is the inherent risk of dealing for someone with a limited baseball resume. And, dealing it would be.
The contract for Carrasco runs through 2020 with a few team buyout options tossed in. For the Indians, for whom Carrasco pitches, to surrender to a deal it would certainly be one where the return would expect to be substantial. Why they would trade a budding talent? The gamble is if Carrasco has reached his baseball ceiling and best to sell high.
The tale of the tape regarding the American League East is interesting. In three games at Fenway Park Carrasco has been beaten harder than an oriental rug at spring cleaning time. In 12.1 innings the stat line plugs in 20 hits and a 1.95 WHIP. Before closing that curtain the stats at New York show a 3-0 record with a 0.48 ERA, so the dreaded Yankees have turned into the Bronx Cream puffs against Carlos.
The move on Carrasco is, to me, like a minefield – cross it and sooner or later you have not exactly the best day of your life – if you take a wrong step. The talent transferred to the Midwest and the risk of Carrasco isn’t the real deal would make me a very cautious GM.
Sep 5, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Tyson Ross (38) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Tyson Ross: 10-12, 196 IP, 172 H, 72 R, 212 K, 84 BB, 3.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 2.98 FIP, 3.15 xFIP, 4.4 WAR.
Ross, a 28-year-old right-hander, is a two and a half pitch wonder for the San Diego Padres. Ross tossed a fastball in 2015 exactly 51.9% of the time, a slider 41.6% and the occasional cutter at 6.1%. The six year veteran is also presently eligible for arbitration and free agency awaits in 2018.
The 2015 season saw Ross leading the National League in walks and occasionally Ross would simply plunk someone with eight hit batsmen. The real standout is a league leading wild pitch total of 14. Ross may have a slight control issue as a present day Ricky Vaughn. Despite that flaw the statistical facts show this is one very good pitcher. A K/9 of 9.73 shows a punch out can be a very legitimate part of his game.
Ross pitched for the A’s and now for the Padres or six seasons in big ballparks. That, however, does not statistically skewer his numbers since the road BA is .239 and the home .186 for his career. Lefties hit Ross at a .260 clip and right-handers are almost invisible at .173.
Can Ross be had?
The Red Sox and Padres have an extensive history of wheeling and dealing. There are front office connections between the two teams so anything can be worked out. Ross would be a reasonable addition and if by some magic pitching elixir his walks could be chopped in half the Red Sox could have an ace.
Sources: Baseball-reference/fangraphs