Boston Red Sox Round Table: Which free agent pitcher is the best fit?
Sep 24, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski (left) introduces Mike Hazen (right) as the team
The Boston Red Sox are desperately in need of an ace to anchor their rotation. The free agent market is ripe with enticing options, but each of the top starting pitchers available come with their fair share of cautionary flags. If the Red Sox could sign one pitcher among the group of David Price, Zack Greinke and Johnny Cueto, which of these aces would be the best fit in Boston?
This topic spurned an intense debate among the BoSox Injection staff, which led to various opinions that weighed the risks and rewards of each of these top-tier free agent pitchers. We’d like to share with you the highlights of our discussion, which have been compiled below. Have an opinion of your own? Feel free to join the debate by expressing your thoughts in the comments section!
Let’s get things started.
Sean Penney: As long as ownership is willing to open up their wallets, David Price is the most likely pitcher on this list of aces to prove to be worth the, ah… price. He is a proven commodity in the AL East, having started his career with the Tampa Bay Rays and later thriving following a trade north of the border to join the Toronto Blue Jays. We know that Dave Dombrowski is drawn to power pitchers like Price, who finished 4th in the league in strikeouts this season. He once traded for Price when he was the general manager of the Detroit Tigers and must be salivating at the opportunity to acquire him again.
What do you guys think? Even if Price ends up demanding the most lucrative contract of the three, is he worth it?
Next: The Price is right?
Oct 23, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher David Price throws a pitch against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning in game six of the ALCS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Loper: Out of these three free agents, I’d have to go with Price. I worry about Greinke’s head and Cueto’s arm (or shoulder to be precise). Price is a proven workhorse who has experience in the AL in general, and more specifically the AL East. He may struggle in postseason starts, but you still need an ace to get you there. He’ll give you 30 plus starts.
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Rick McNair: Price is like Uber. He’ll get you from point A to point B quickly and efficiently. But once you are at point B (playoffs) you are on your own – just like the Uber driver going away. Cueto has a chance to raise his stock in the Word Series. Greinke has been good in the postseason, but not great. What the Red Sox are looking for is the next Curt Schilling, who gets you there and then goes to the next step.
Sean: The biggest concern with Price seems to be his postseason track record, but are his struggles a bit overblown? It’s been well documented that he hasn’t won any of his career postseason starts (2-7, with both wins coming in relief appearances), while his 5.12 ERA certainly isn’t appealing. However, his strikeout rate is in line with his regular season numbers and his walk rate actually improves in the playoffs. His bloated ERA is heavily influenced by a 7-run shellacking at the hands of the Red Sox in 2013, while some of his losses have been of the hard-luck variety. We all know that postseason glory is all that really matters in the hearts of Red Sox Nation, but is Price not being a proven winner in October a reason to pass on him this winter?
Drew Peabody: Regarding the criticisms leveled at Price, I think the fact remains that this guy is at the top of his game right now no matter what his postseason numbers show. You have to get to the postseason and Price is the guy to do that. His 2.45 ERA in 2015 with his team in the pennant race speaks volumes.
Next: Doubting Cueto?
Oct 28, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) celebrates after defeating the New York Mets in game two of the 2015 World Series at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Jorge Camargo: Personally, I don’t think any of the three options would fit in Boston, but if I have to choose I’ll go with Price. Boston is a place where sports are almost a religion, and Fenway Park is the cathedral. Even though Greinke might be the best option, I don’t see him with the attitude to lead a Red Sox rotation as Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have done before. I know Los Angeles has a market similar to Boston, but everything is easier when you are behind Clayton Kershaw. Cueto might have the attitude and swag, but his shoulder and recent record are a huge red flag.
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Brandon Nickel: I weep for the poor soul who decides to pick Cueto. I’ve written about the pros and cons for the Red Sox signing each of these three men, and instead of rehashing my arguments, I’d rather take the approach of who I would never touch with someone else’s 10-foot pole.
I’m a Red Sox fan, but as I live in Canada I have had to listen for years about how R.A. Dickey‘s move from the New York Mets to the Toronto Blue Jays was going to be the most important signing in ages. Finally, the Blue Jays had a Cy Young Award winner and were going to go deep into the postseason. A few seasons later and the Blue Jays were not going to even sniff the playoffs if it wasn’t for the signings and trades that they made this year. And they still didn’t make the World Series. Dickey was their fourth starter in the rotation, behind Price, a second-year player who was out most of the year, and a bullpen-turned-starting pitcher who they never expected to factor in their plans that much.
Cueto’s move from the National League to the American League has looked very Dickey-esque.
Sean: Cueto’s complete game two-hit gem in Game 2 of the World Series may change people’s attitudes about his ability to shine on the big stage, which is something Price has been unable to accomplish thus far. I’m still inclined to lean toward the larger sample of Price dominating in this division.
Next: Can Greinke handle the heat?
October 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Zack Greinke (21) pitches the first inning against New York Mets in game five of NLDS at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Samantha Riley: Out of those three, I would have to go with Greinke. Cueto has been inconsistent since joining an American League team and Price’s postseason record is truly dismal – although I will admit that this record is not entirely his fault. Greinke is extremely reliable, in his prime, and has pitched successfully in both the AL and NL. It was a close call between Greinke and Price, but I went with Greinke because he ultimately has more experience and he has just been getting better and better over the past few years.
Many are worried about Grienke’s mental stability and his ability to handle being the ace of the Boston Red Sox, but being the ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers is not that much different.
Drew: Greinke’s prior mental issues are concerning, and all due respect to Samantha, pitching in LA is nothing like the cauldron of Boston and anything but success will create more pressure than he can handle.
Stephen Little: Another thing to note is that Greinke has relationships with two members of the Red Sox front office; Allard Baird and Brian Bannister. Indeed, he has widely credited Bannister for helping him understand and use sabremetrics in his pitching. The presence of both could potentially help make Boston a soft landing.
Sean: Interesting point. Greinke’s relationship with members of the Red Sox front office may help draw him to Boston, but how much of an effect would they have on his ability to handle the pressure once he got here? There is risk in signing any of these pitchers, but Greinke’s noted battle with anxiety and depression is a glaring red flag.
Next: Cost matters
Sep 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) delivers a pitch to an Atlanta Braves batter in the first inning of their game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Matt: Another important factor in this is years and cost. I know we are assuming they would all be the same for argument’s sake, but I feel like you may have to offer more for Greinke to come to Boston. No matter what, they’ll all cost a ton!
Rick: My choice would be Greinke since it would require a few less years (an assumption, of course) than the long-term requirement that Price, Cueto or Jordan Zimmermann would seek. Yes, I tossed Zimmermann into the cauldron of wishes. Age is a factor for contract lengths and the Red Sox would probably go short on years and high on dollars. Statistically Greinke is the best of the litter.
Sean: We know from last year’s negotiations with Lester that the Red Sox ownership group is hesitant to offer long-term deals to pitchers on the wrong side of 30. Greinke is the oldest of this trio at 32, but if he’s willing to sign for 4-5 years instead of the 7+ that Price and Cueto will want, perhaps that offsets some of the risks associated with his condition. The 29-year old Zimmermann is younger than all of them, but he seems to have a lower ceiling than the other pitchers in this discussion and he’s the only one of them that has never pitched for an AL team.
Brandon: I’m always very cautious about players switching leagues. I know Greinke used to play in the AL, but at least Price has been a proven talent in the same division.
Jorge: As long as the next ace is Sonny Gray or Chris Sale, I don’t mind who they sign because the No. 1 starter and leader of a postseason rotation wouldn’t be the free agent.
It’s certainly possible that the Red Sox pass on bidding for any of these potential free agent targets. The trade route is another option that the front office will explore, but discussing which starter the Red Sox should deal for is a debate for another day!