Three aces in the Red Sox trade fountain

By Rick McNair |

3 of 4

Jul 26, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Detroit Tigers President, CEO and General Manager Dave Dombrowski works in the dugout before their game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

A poker player should never show their cards and that is what Dave Dombrowski did with his very public pronouncement to procure an ace. Not exactly close to the vest and if Dombrowski fails to deliver he’ll be relegated to the land of broken campaign promises. Unfortunately for Dombrowski the Red Sox Nation takes baseball on a far higher level than mere political spats.

Dombrowski has a track record of delivering high-profile talent and shipping out high-profile talent. The expected anticipation is that when spring training is finally upon us, the Red Sox pitching rotation will have a newly minted ace to lead the foray into the 2016 season.

There happen to be three select arms of great stature who certainly can be made available to Mr. D. providing he provides their present teams with the splendor of our development system. Expect up front to see Blake Swihart go. No way around this, kids – you want an ace you gotta pay and in this poker game the most valuable chip is Swihart.

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When pitching arrives pitching must exit and the most likely candidate will be Henry Owens. Owens demonstrated his potential with some respectable late season performances. Owens is a must. Within the pitchers soon to be reviewed comes the caveat that they are under team control for a few seasons. A huge plus and one in which a premium will be required.

Teams have needs and Boston has depth in the minors and a few capable pieces on the roster. Would a Jackie Bradley seal any deal? Is Rusney Castillo and “cash considerations” a possibility? Would either be tempting enough or would Boston have to wave a fond farewell to Anderson Espinoza, Manuel Margot or another high positioned prospect?

The fact is the Red Sox will have to overpay and the debate will not center on that tidbit except for how much.

Oct 17, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Matt Harvey throws a pitch against the Chicago Cubs in the 7th inning in game one of the NLCS at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Matt Harvey: 13-8, K/9 8.94, BB/9 1.79, 2.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.15 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, 4.4 WAR.

Would New York even consider shipping Harvey out? There were a few spats during the regular season by the 26-year-old right-hander with Mets management. Are the Mets petulant enough to use this as justification to explore trading away a present day potential Tom Seaver?

The public fallout will probably be similar to the nuclear fallout at Chernobyl and just as deadly in a public relations sense. But GM’s do stupid things and GM’s can also frame a story to make today’s hero into today’s expired cold cuts, especially after Pedro Martinez has bolstered Harvey as the second coming of none other than Pedro himself! So, the spin would have to extraordinarily complex to convince the Met faithful that this was just a top notch trade.

There has also been a public dustup with Harvey’s agent – Scott Boras. Knowing that down the road, Harvey is a free agent in 2019, is the usual confrontation with Boras the Mets just might toss in the negotiations to another ball club, especially after Boras questioned Mets management on Harvey’s use. Anyways, a potential plus of all the dynamics is that Harvey can take heat and throw heat and that is an advantage in preparation of playing in Boston.

The central focus of the issue was a pitch limitation on Harvey, who had missed 2014 with Tommy John surgery. The end result was a public and limited comeuppance by Harvey, who did a nifty Fred Astaire tap dance to extract himself from further embarrassment.

What really could temp the Mets is the sudden wealth in arms that have surfaced. With such abundance comes the opportunity to plug real or perceived holes elsewhere and Harvey just may be the golden ticket for that.

Sep 25, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) throws to the San Francisco Giants in the second inning of their MLB baseball game at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports

Sonny Gray: 14-7, K/9 7.31, BB/9 2.55, 2.73 ERA. 1.08 WHIP, 3.45 FIP, xFIP 3.69, 3.8 WAR.

Why would Oakland even consider trading Gray? Gray will not get blessed with free agency until 2020 and arbitration beckons in 2017. Then again, the A’s and Billy Beane are notorious for shuffling players hither and yon on a whim. But the whim is usually based in logic that may be one step ahead of others.

Beane is historically amicable to young controllable talent that can be moved either pronto or down the road a year or two or three. The Red Sox have the bobbles that would entice Beane and the two organizations have swapped players before. Gray, a 25-year-old right-hander, is coming off back-to-back ace level seasons and rumors abound of Gray being tossed onto the available board.

Gray could have been a moot issue if the Red Sox had picked Gray up in the 2011 draft if their drafting order had been flipped with the A’s. No Gray in the first round and the selection became Matt Barnes. That is the breaks of the draft and the Red Sox certainly had their lust back then. But that was then and this is now and the possibility is presenting itself.

A pitcher’s best friend is not the double play, but a spacious ballpark and the Oakland mausoleum is just that. In Fenway Park mistakes become souvenirs while in Oakland a routine fly ball. Well, Gray has allowed 25 home runs at Oakland and 11 on the road in his career. Gray’s ERA, WHIP, BB and K totals are very favorable on the road. Gray has ventured onto the Fenway mound once for a small sample of six innings allowing two runs.

Gray fits the mold of an ace on the rise and would certainly should a prime target for Boston with his ability and youth. The price would be staggering.

Sep 24, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (49) pitches against the New York Yankees in the third inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Sale: 13-11, K/9 11.82, BB/9 1.81, 3.41 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.73 FIP, 2.60 xFIP, 6.2 WAR.

Sale has been around since age 21 and the now 26-year-old left-hander is a four-time All-Star. The statistics ring out with a league leading K/9 that resulted in a league leading 274 strike outs. That ERA may alarm some, but the FIP was also a league leading figure. And sabermericians just fawn over FIP and its bosom buddy comparison xFIP.

If the Red Sox were willing to take the massive dump truck labeled “prospects” and fill it up, Sale would be my personal target. Sale is signed for four more years at 48 Million with the last two years, having relatively low (one million) team buy outs. Compare this contract to Rick Porcello and it is Filene’s Bargain Basement figures on the Sale contract.

Sale has reasonable splits for home and road with slightly higher traditional and metric figures on the road. However, Fenway Park has not been an enjoyable destination with a 0-1 record in five games. That is tempered somewhat about Sale’s record at other American League East parks. All show dominant stats with a 2.25 ERA. Unfortunately the record is 2-5.

The Chicago White Sox have traditionally been the second choice in the second city. With the Cubs now on the rise a bold or series of bold moves are necessary to gather ink and to gather talent since the other Sox have played .436 (212-274) ball for the last three seasons.

The contract certainly increases bargaining value for Rick Hahn, White Sox GM, and he needs some type of splash to energize a franchise that was 26th in major league attendance for 2015. The road figures are equally dismal, but Houston, Toronto and Kansas City were the bottom three if that allows some type of sympathetic bonding.

This, again, is “The One” for me. If the Red Sox wish to empty out the prospect vault sent those warm bodies to Chicago.

Sources: Fangraphs/Baseball-reference/Cot’s contracts

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