Free Agents the Red Sox need to pass on

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Aug 12, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Hanley Ramirez (13) looks on from the dugout during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Red Sox and their fans are not immune from consumer fraud. Recently in Massachusetts several pharmacy chains faced penalties for what they would term “pricing errors” and a consumer would call “price gouging.” From a baseball point of view we have already seen two recent examples in Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval of pricing errors. Money can be well spent or not and from the cushy view from the back of the hindsight bus this was money that would have been better used to provide me with a stately home on a tropical island – and, of course, toss in a Gulfstream V.

There are various seasons that are designated by whomever wishes to push a product or make some type of statement – such as “Flu Season” or “Best of the season” prices. We are now entering a very special season in baseball and that is the free agency season roundup.

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In 2014-15 season the Red Sox got zonked as legendary TV host Monty Hall would state. In other “Free Agent Season’s” the Red Sox brain trust or is in metrics trust have had mixed results. In some instances there have been signing home runs and others seasons, signing that is best termed reliable and at least productive enough to give the signing a lukewarm thumbs up.

So just who is on my buyer beware list? Which players would I avoid? Three high profile free agents I would pass on who will all sign enormous contracts and eventually will have varying levels of success. Two represent the absolute necessity in the pitching department being high profile and thus high expense aces.

Oct 4, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis (19) hits a two run home run during the eighth inning against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles won 9-4. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The best thing about Chris Davis is he provides that one element that is prime rib to any Red Sox fan – the long ball. Red Sox fans lust for the Earl Weaver three run shot. There is already a preponderance of stories relaying the need for addition “punch” and that punch is translated as the tiny white sphere exiting the ball back like a Corvette hitting third gear.

Davis is the foremost practitioner of the art of the long ball in the American League. Davis led the league and MLB with 47 home runs. In 2013 he led baseball with 53 home runs. So Davis will hit the Big One and it is reflected in an OPS that came in at .923. With home runs comes (hopefully) RBI totals and Davis will not disappoint. The man is a classic left-handed power hitter who at age 30 in March should have some prime years ahead.

With power often comes a downside and in this instanced it is reflected in the letter “K” that is baseballese for a strike out. Davis exceeded the magical 200 barrier (208) in 2015 and that is noteworthy since it does mean LOB or Left On Base. Davis is also a career .255 hitter who never has even come within hailing distance of .300, so don’t expect any batting titles.

Davis is respectable with the glove (UZR/150) of 5.7 or second place among AL qualifiers. Davis will also require much cash since this is his one chance of a significant payout and he will get it somewhere and somewhere I hope is south or west of Boston.

The Red Sox have the “Hanley Problem” to address and that means his latest destination is first base. The Red Sox have a huge payroll commitment to Hanley and unless they are willing to say “dead Money” or find an intoxicated GM elsewhere they are stuck. The Red Sox also have in their employ Travis Shaw, who certainly got attention in his 65 games in Boston.

The DH option is set for 2016 with David Ortiz and if history is an indicator we will be entertained by a Papi payroll uprising sometime in 2016. And do not discount fast rising 22-year-old Sam Travis who will hone his skills at Pawtucket.

For my playing of GM I would pass on Davis. Money best spent elsewhere.

Oct 23, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher David Price throws a pitch against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning in game six of the ALCS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

What is not to like about David Price? Price is now ready for the ultimate cash-in with a projected contract that may touch onto 7/200M. Price is certainly the real deal with performance as a former Cy Young Award winner and a pitcher of remarkable durability.

What stands out with Price is 6-1 and a 1.95 ERA – that represents his Fenway Park record in 11 starts. Price knows the American League East and doesn’t get rattled unless, of course, it is when it really counts – the playoffs! A 2-7 record and 5.22 ERA does not bring up visions of Curt Schilling (11-2, 2.30) when the big game is on the line. Maybe some of my negativity towards such an obvious talent is rooted in the rivalry between Boston and Tampa Bay?

The long term game with Price is the potential years committed and how that lines up with the Boston roster and talent pipeline. Rick Porcello and Wade Miley are signed. The promising Henry Owens is controllable, as is Brian Johnson. The minors have a few names that are beginning to surface and Eduardo Rodriguez may actually be a potential ace, so with young talent I will admit to having a “Binky factor” in allowing as much developmental space as possible. Yes, I would prefer short in years and high in money or possibly trading some prospect stash for a young, signed and controllable ace. I would pass on Price over the potential years required to sign him and for this gnawing feeling that something is just not right about it – the science of doubt.

Oct 19, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) reacts during the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays in game three of the ALCS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

Johnny Cueto has similar issues in the playoffs as Price with a 1-3 record as an astronomical 6.93 ERA. All that can be erased with some quality starts in the World Series, but will it be enough? Cueto has the in season performance that attracts attention and 2014 really stands out. Cueto keeps the walks and hits under control and certainly can nail a K when needed.

What concerns me is the transition to the American League. The Kansas City record was 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA. That is in the territory of Rick Porcello and Wade Miley – both capable lower end of rotation performers. That is a warning flag where Boston could pump out 150M for a fourth or fifth starter.

Cueto is certainly entertaining and would get style points for his Luis Tiant approach to gamesmanship – baseball can be fun and Cueto would bring style points, savoir faire and entertainment to Fenway. This is a pitcher who would make game day a rather festive event especially, if his performance would match his record the last several seasons.

Cueto has also had some arm issues and that is another red flag of caution as wear and tear takes a vicicious toll on an arm. Would Cueto be amicable to a John Lackey type performance clause in his contract? With Cueto the risk versus reward would make me narrow my focus and I would pass based on his American League performance and potential arm issues.

Sources: Baseball-reference/fangraphs

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