Top 5: ‘Ace’ Pitchers in 2015 AL East

May 26, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher

Clay Buchholz

(11) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Success in baseball, as the saying goes, both begins and ends with pitching. Unless your hitters suck, but we’ll probably blame the pitching anyway. There are always gaps in the pitching; your pitchers are not going to toss a perfect game every single outing, or indeed, in the case of the 2015 Boston Red Sox, ever. The variety of the game, the raw man-on-man nature of it all, means that every at bat is different and in many cases entirely unpredictable (though, sadly, it didn’t take long until we all could predict the outcome of a Pablo Sandoval at-bat)

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You have your number 4 and 5 guys, the back end of the rotation. These guys are average in stats, in delivery, in hairstyles, and in everything else. Throwing good games mixed with implosions, there isn’t much to complain about as they bring team friendly contracts and save space in the payroll for the big guns. Also, they make your quality pitchers even better by comparison and make you start to appreciate the days that they’re not pitching. They just may lead you to increased intake of alcohol or heart pills or Fenway Franks.

Your number 2 and 3 pitchers inspire more confidence. While the back-end often make you wonder if they could even “pitch” a tent, as you get closer to the front the consistency starts to show.

A couple of solid number 2 starters are a far greater asset to the team than they are often given credit for, with around a +2 WAR on the season. They are the unsung heroes, the guys who carry the franchise from the shadows, the Robin to Batman.

Above them lies the ace, that guy who is basically the face of the franchise and is known and beloved for his ability to just get the job done.

Today, we are looking at the ace pitchers for American League East in 2015 and I’ll present a ranking of their performance. The rankings chosen are seemingly arbitrary but are based on sabermetrics with the most importance given to ERA, FIP and WAR. I’ve also taken into consideration innings pitched, winning record, strikeout rates, and the invisible ‘it factor’ which is that essential swag required for being a genuine, bonafide ace.

Next: 5 - Chris Tillman

Jul 24, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Chris Tillman (30) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

5) Chris Tillman – Baltimore Orioles

Bio: 27 y/o, 6’5”, 210 lbs

2015 Record – 11 Wins, 11 Losses

ERA – 4.99

FIP – 4.45

WAR – 1.9

K/9 – 6.63

IP – 173

‘It Factor’ – One step forward, two steps back

All didn’t go quite according to plan for the would-be Orioles ace, this year. After a promising 2014 campaign posting, if nothing else, a serviceable 3.34 ERA in 207.1 innings pitched, there had been high hopes in the Orioles front office that he was the man to lead them to another post season.

Instead, he led them to batting practice, surrendering 176 hits in a mere 173 innings and allowing 64 walks which would, had he pitched a career average amount of innings, been a career high amount of free passes. Yikes!

Where did it all go wrong for Tillman? It wasn’t in fastball speed, which remained around his career average at 92.31 mph. It was actually a combination of a few things. For a start, he was projecting towards a career-high number of home runs surrendered, which could be as a result of playing in such a hot league. Teams like the Toronto Blue Jays hit dingers the way you and I hit a shift key. Tillman took a 15.50 ERA from his five starts against the Blue Jays.

More to the point, there seemed to be an overall absence of control that led to a number of pitches, in particular with his changeup, left up all too often in the strikezone. Just such a pitch had the dubious honor of being the offering presented to New York Yankees slugger Alex Rodriguez for his 661^st homer, moving him into 4^th on the moonshot list past Willie Mays.

So suffice it to say, the 2015 Chris Tillman project didn’t quite pan out as expected. Yes, he had a better second half than a first, but overall it simply wasn’t what Baltimore wanted or needed. They came close to a Wild Card slot, but the absence of a true ace standing in front of Tillman in the rotation may have made the difference.

Next: 4 - Masahiro Tanaka

Sep 30, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (19) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

4) Masahiro Tanaka – New York Yankees

Bio: 26 y/o, 6’2”, 205 lbs

2015 Record – 12 Wins, 7 Losses

ERA – 3.51

FIP – 3.98

WAR – 2.2

K/9 – 8.22

IP – 154.0

“It Factor” – Koji Uehara as a starter, but less crazy

Masahiro Tanaka, perhaps any other year, would have been a slot higher on the list. Unfair, you might say, as he has been incessantly dogged by injuries or rumors thereof since joining the Yankees, and this year was the most troubling. Coming off a stellar 2.77 ERA and mouthwatering 141 strikeouts in 20 starts of 2014, Tanaka was surrounded by media speculation of the potential need for Tommy John surgery. This likely wasn’t helped much when Tanaka was handed the ball on opening day and promptly handed it to the Toronto Blue Jays in the form of five runs in four innings.

Tanaka would wind up being sent to the disabled list, putting distance between himself and the Red Sox pitchers who spent the year there on phantom injuries. While he would be out of commission for a little over a month, not much seemed to be substantially gained from a performance perspective. His splitter was still nasty, but his other secondary pitches proved more hittable and he was pitching them more frequently than ever.

All of this resulted in a 2.2 WAR which is fairly solid, albeit down from the 3.1 he managed in 2014. Given the injury constraints it’s hard to be too critical as Tanaka did pitch successfully and had a good win record, if nothing else.

Ultimately, Masahiro Tanaka isn’t the ace the Yankees were looking for. Nothing illustrated this fact more than his and the Yankees’ one appearance in the postseason, as Tanaka lasted five innings against the Houston Astros and surrendered four hits, two runs (both of them homers) and three walks. Good, but not great. A number 2 but not a number 1.

Next: 3 - Clay Buchholz

Jul 10, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (11) pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

3) Clay Buchholz – Boston Red Sox

Bio: 31 y/o, 6’3”, 190 lbs

2015 Record – 7 Wins, 7 Losses

ERA – 3.26

FIP – 2.68

WAR – 3.2

K/9 – 8.50

IP – 113.1

“It Factor” – Brilliance perennially marred by injuries

You guys may remember at the start of the 2015 season that the Red Sox rotation were all walking around wearing special “He’s the ace” shirts, with their names on the back. Had Joe Kelly not made the ill-advised prophecy on live radio that he would get the 2015 AL Cy Young award, we’d probably be looking back and laughing about the shirts thing instead.

If there was an ace though, and the whole thing is debatable, it was probably Clay Buchholz. Buchholz started the year with his second game seeing a ghastly line of 3.1 IP, 9 hits, 10 runs and 9 earned runs against, who else, the New York Yankees.

April seemed up and down, one minute decent the next absolutely dreadful, then May happened. By May Buchholz began, silently, to settle down and assert his authority. It was silent because the bats were still more silent than the opponent’s, so Boston continued to drop games that at least Buchholz was making winnable. Meanwhile, Red Sox pitchers had been so dire (one of the worst in the Majors) that Red Sox pitching coach Juan Nieves was given the heave-ho and replaced with Carl Willis.

Even so, Buccholz continued to provide something of a respite pitching a 3.31 ERA in May, 2.21 in June and a remarkable 1.46 in July before, you guessed it, missing the rest of the season through injury. Certainly the highlight was coming within one out of a complete game shutout on July 4^th. Incredibly, Buchholz would be the first Red Sox pitcher to finish the job and one of only three (Wade Miley and Rich Hill would later follow suit) in the year.

It’s difficult to argue that Clay Buchholz can be a true ace, he hasn’t finished a season once in his career. Even so, the numbers he puts up are compelling. His 2.68 FIP is good for being the third best in all of baseball. Even when he was pitching, he was in the top ten on FIP surrounded by names like Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale.  His 3.2 WAR is ultimately the testimony to how much even half a season of Clay Buchholz can contribute, and it’s enough even on its own to guarantee his spot on this list and perhaps in the 2016 rotation too.

Next: 2 - Chris Archer

Sep 16, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Chris Archer (22) throws a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

2) Chris Archer – Tampa Bay Rays

Bio: 27 y/o, 6’3”, 190 lbs

2015 Record – 12 Wins, 13 Losses

ERA – 3.28

FIP – 2.90

WAR – 5.3

K/9 – 10.70

IP – 212.0

“It Factor” – K Machine who is only getting better

The Tampa Bay Rays ace Chris Archer is cocky and confident for all the right reasons. His stuff is explosive and he has an uncanny and in many ways unmatched ability to generate big and undeniably awkward-looking swings and misses.

Actually, this list really isn’t reflective of anything at all, because Archer is in a different league than those who came before. Don’t believe me? His strikeout rate on the year was a career high 29% and his walk rate a career low 7.6%, the gulf between the two is simply exceptional and one of the best  you’ll see. His k/9 rate of 10.70 is on par with some top bullpen pieces and was also up there with some of his career best.

All started well for Archer and the Rays in April, as he saw the month in with a mere 0.84 ERA and boasted a faster than ever fastball (averaging 95.86 mph). His dominance continued in May and showed no signs of slowing in June, when he ran a ridiculous 46% strikeout rate. Archer’s dominance would continue unabashed until July when things started to unravel, if only a little bit.

Mixed in between outings of dominance were outings of being humbled. On July 8^th Archer would hand the soft hitting Kansas City Royals 9 runs in 6 innings including 2 homers. On August 15^th Archer would hand deliver another 8 runs to the Texas Rangers. This was isolated, but by September it was clear Archer was tiring as he was knocked around for a 6.58 ERA on the month, and thus he would finish and the Tampa Bay Rays would finish.

When all is said and done, Chris Archer has proved time again he has true top of the rotation stuff and he’s only getting better. Oh and he’s pitching for league minimum under team control until 2019. So there’s that.

Next: 1 - David Price