Fear and loathing of the Red Sox bullpen
Jun 24, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Members of the Boston Red Sox bullpen dispute a fly out caught by Seattle Mariners left fielder Dustin Ackley (13, foreground) during the third inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Japanese for the Puffer fish is Fugu, which is a rare ocean delicacy that if prepared incorrectly can kill the diner. A sure risk when you order it and that is very similar to the Red Sox bullpen. The presentation may be delectable and tasty or it could be poison. With the Red Sox bullpen it is poison. The bullpen is considered the last stop of that train to disappointment on Fangraphs. A solid “We’re number 15 in AL!” But it is even a more depressing situation as the Red Sox bullpen is last among all MLB teams with a -1.4 WAR.
Some current occupants of the bullpen are keepers since there is a level of proven value. Others are barely keepers, but do have some possible value, some have a level of reliability that is worth an extended look and the remainder are best jettisoned for better options. The free agent market provides the usually collection of former talents on the decline, potential nuggets – gold and not the kind rabbits leave behind – and some solid bullpen citizens that would be worthy replacements.
The philosophy of pitching has changed considerably with the focus being placed on bullpen depth, competence and versatility. Seven of the top ten bullpens made it into the playoffs, so that emphasis is front and center. The ongoing issue is the need for an ace, yet Red Sox starters were twelfth in MLB and sixth in the AL with a WAR of 12.1.
Aug 7, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher
Koji Uehara(19) makes a throw to first after get struck by a ball hit by Detroit Tigers second baseman
Ian Kinsler(not pictured) in the ninth inning at Comerica Park. The Red Sox won 7-2. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Keepers
The Red Sox closer situation simply disintegrated when Koji Uehara went down to a broken bone. Koji had a very respectable season with 25 saves in 27 opportunities and batter’s hitting just .188. A BB/9 of 2.0 and a K/9 of 10.5 shows that Koji can get the important punch out and not go into walk mode as we have witnessed with his replacements.
The argument against Koji apparently boils down to his age – Koji is a baseball senior citizen and will be 41-years-old next season. Uehara also has a checkered injury history and caution must be applied as not to overwork his ancient arm. With another season on his contract the closer role is his. But what about the rest?
The primary set-up position is occupied by Junichi Tazawa (2-7, 4.14) with a high level of competency – at least until he gets arm weary – and apparently that is like flu season or an annual event. Quite possibly a more judicious use of Taz would mitigate some of the late season meltdowns. But Tazawa is a keeper. He’s demonstrated the ability to be productive and, no doubt, will continue to do so with a warning label about excessive use. Of note: On July 31st his ERA was 2.60.
Robbie Ross (0-2, 3.86) is another former Ranger of some value. Ross certainly did not provide replacement value for departed Andrew Miller, but Ross was serviceable and even assumed the closer role with six saves. As the season moved forward Ross’ fastball also ticked upwards. Lefties hit .224 against Ross and right-handers hit .272. Ross showed enough down the stretch to warrant a return.
Matt Barnes (3-4, 5.44) is either a short reliever, starter, long reliever or whatever else can be dreamed up by baseball ops….or is it oops? Barnes, a former first round pick, has a cannon arm and incredible inconsistency, but a fastball velocity average of 94.7 is difficult to give up on.
Aug 28, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher
Alexi Ogando(41) looks toward home during the seventh inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Take a long look types
If this was 2011, then Alexi Ogando (3-1, 3.99) would cost a premium price, but it is 2015 and injuries and performance issues made Ogando expendable in Texas. Ogando led the Red Sox with 65.1 bullpen innings and can still bring some heat with a 94.4 fastball. You compare Ogando to his great 2011 season and that FB was at 95, his 2011 metrics are very similar to 2015, So there is still some positive value.
Tommy Layne (2-1, 3.97) was a free agent signing who was brought in to bolster up the bullpen from the left side. Layne’s biggest issue is 5.1 – that is his BB/9 rate and when you walk too many managerial confidence dwindles. Layne was certainly not a reincarnation of Miller, but provided some serviceable time out of the ‘pen with 47.2 innings and a H/9 of 7.7. Lefties hit only .148 off Layne, but righties picked up the slack at .322.
At 26-years-old the time line for Heath Hembree (2-2, 3.55) is running short. Very similar to Barnes, Hembree tosses his heater about 70% of the time and brings it in the mid-90s. Barnes and Hembree may be in the Thunderdome contest – two men enter and one man leaves.
Jean Machi (1-0, 5.09 in Boston) is a 33-year-old vet right-hander who was dumped by San Francisco and picked off the waiver wire by the Red Sox. Nothing impressive by Machi who did have four saves. One interesting point is Machi allowed only two runs in his last 9.2 innings.
Steven Wright (5-4, 4.09) in 16 games (nine starts) and Rich Hill (2-1, 1.55) in four starts and in the mix for both the rotation and the bullpen.
Sep 2, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher
Ryan Cook(46) delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees during the third inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Gone and forgotten
Being an intellectual is not necessarily translated into performance and Craig Breslow (0-4, 4.15) has clearly reached the end of the line. A Breslow appearance is tantamount to just saying “we are cooked.” Breslow had a remarkable stay in MLB and it is over – at least in Boston. What glimmer of hope surfaced was when Breslow participated in two starts at the end of the season with remarkable success – that may encourage others to give Breslow a look.
Ryan Cook (0-0, 27.00) is about as bad as it gets and that was for a mere 4.1 innings. The only ones who will miss Cook are the hitters.
Another waiver wire desperation move was Roman Mendez (0-0, 4.50 in Boston). Mendez has one sterling quality – he is 25 years-old and that may make the right-hander a possibility for Pawtucket to refine his game.
Sep 19, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Noe Ramirez (66) throws a ball to first base during the seventh inning in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. The Boston Red Sox won 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Farm living is the life for me
The farm system is depleted of prospect talent. A few made it to Boston for a quick peek and the veteran talent that was stored at Pawtucket failed when called upon. Here are a few possibilities or long shots for 2016.
Pat Light finished out 2015 at Pawtucket appearing in 26 games and picking up a pair of saves. The 24-year-old right-hander tossed 33 innings allowing less that a hit an inning (31) and a K rate better than one an inning (35). Impressive? Well…not as “impressive” as 26 walks at Pawtucket. He’ll be with the PawSox.
Noe Ramirez also impressed at Pawtucket (4-1, 2.32) and did reasonably well (0-1, 4.15) in a late season try out in Boston. The 25-year-old right-hander will get into the competition mix in spring training. Not overpowering, but with a deceptive and somewhat quirky delivered (ask Alex Rodriguez), you may see the latest Ramirez addition to the roster start in the Pawtucket bullpen and be in Boston by June.
Jonathan Aro (0-1, 6.97) did little to impress in a short sample 10.1 innings in Boston, but did impress at Pawtucket and Portland (3-3, 3.04). A 24-year-old right-hander who may get an outside shot.
Dayan Diaz is a 27-year-old right-hander who has been in professional baseball since 2006. Boston represents his third organization and Diaz split duty between Pawtucket and Portland appearing in 37 games and an impressive 72.2 innings of relief. Diaz finished with a 2-1 record and 1.73 ERA. The downside was walks – 30 between the two teams.
Looking at the career stats of Jorge Marban is like reading a travelogue. The previous stop was Australia before signing with the Red Sox organization and working in relief for three teams (7-2, 1.31) with the final stop at Pawtucket for 13 innings and a 3-0 record. Marban worked 62 innings and allowed a meager 45 hits. Looks good? Again the issue is walks and for Marban it has plagued his entire career and for 2015 the grand total was 33.
An 18-year-old left-hander that I am adding to the list? This is Logan Allen who finished up at Lowell and he is currently the 13th ranked Sox prospect. My reasoning is simple: In 24.1 innings young Mr. Allen walked a grand total of one batter. Allen also whiffed 26 and he will not be in Boston in 2016 or 2017, but keep that name in your register of Sox pitching talent.
Free agent ventures
A left-hander who is just as effective against right-handers has value and that is 32-year-old Tony Sipp (3-4, 1.99). Sipp is not over powering and just barely touches 90 MPH, but .190 RHB and .227 LHB shows his value for when a manager wished to play percentages. Sipp relies on three pitches – a fastball, slider and change. In 60 games for Houston Sipp pitched 54 innings with a K/9 of 10.27% while issuing 15 walks.
Darren O’Day (6-2, 1.52) knows the AL east since he has worked out of the Orioles bullpen for the last four seasons. The 33-year-old right-hander has been a mainstay for the Orioles ‘pen – ranked first in MLB with a 6.1 WAR. O’Day can handle both right-handed hitters (.192) and left-handed batters (.210), so O’Day can be used in any situation. A BB/9 of 1.9 and a K/9 of 11.3 is excellent. Expect O’Day to get a healthy contract somewhere and maybe that somewhere will be Boston? O’Day would provide an excellent bridge to a closer. Career 1.25 ERA at Fenway Park.
Tyler Clippard (5-4, 2.92) can do just about any bullpen duty requested. The 30-year-old right-hander appeared in 69 games for Oakland and the Mets, pitching 71 innings and allowing only 49 hits.
Joakim Soria (3-1, 2.53, 24 SV) is throwing as hard (92.1 MPH) as he did in his pre Tommy John surgery salad days in Kansas City. Soria, now 31-years-old, no longer relies extensively on his fastball (54.2%), but mixes it up with several other pitches.
Sources: Baseball-reference/Sox Propects/Fangraphs
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