MLB Standings Watch: Red Sox fighting to avoid last place
Sep 19, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) celebrates with designated hitter David Ortiz (34) after hitting a home run during the sixth inning in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
With only a dozen games left on the schedule, the Boston Red Sox find themselves in a tight race. Nope, it’s not a playoff race. This is a battle to avoid last place.
The Red Sox have split the first two games of a four-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays, which began with Boston trailing by a mere half game. The teams have taken turns sharing the bottom spot in the division during this series and may flip-flop again over their next two games.
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Is finishing ahead of Tampa Bay for fourth place really much of an accomplishment? Not really, but the Red Sox are eager to avoid the stain of finishing last in the division in three of the last four years. A lot of franchises would gladly accept that fate if it meant having a championship season in between, but that mentality doesn’t fly in Boston. The Red Sox are supposed to contend every year, so 2013 is looked at as meeting expectations, while the seasons that bookend that title are considered massive disappointments. This team doesn’t want to end the season that way again.
The Rays aren’t the only team in this battle. Boston is only two games behind the Baltimore Orioles, who they welcome to Fenway Park this weekend. By the end of the week the Red Sox could potentially be as high as third place in the division.
Why should this matter to Red sox fans? It’s not just about pride, although that should come in to play for the players at least. Third place may not mean much, but last place might. Boston will be looking to reload this winter with an eye on fixing their starting rotation. That will likely have them looking to dip into the free agent market, which is expected to be flush with potential front line starting options. Money talks in the free agent game and the Red Sox front office should be ready to open up the checkbooks after shuffling through the bargain discount bin for pitching last offseason. However, they won’t be the only team willing to spend. The chance to win is also a factor for the top free agents, so finishing last in their division for the second straight season could work against the Red Sox if all else is relatively equal.
Postseason hopes faded long ago for the Red Sox, but let’s not pretend that there is nothing left to play for in these final two weeks.
Next: Rising
September 4, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Texas Rangers right fielder Shin-Soo Choo (17) hits a triple in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Rising
(AL team gaining momentum)
Texas Rangers: Texas has opened up a two-game lead in the division after sweeping a four-game set against the Houston Astros last week. The Rangers have won 7 of their last 10 games, giving them the league’s best record over that span.
The resurgence of Shin-Soo Choo has helped carry the Rangers offense this month. Choo was deemed a bust after providing essentially replacement level value in his first season in Texas after signing a lucrative free agent contract. He seemed to have declined even further this year before turning it on in the second half of the season. So far in September he is slashing .423/.543/.592, raising his season numbers to a respectable level and giving him a 120 OPS+ for the year. His 2.5 WAR indicates he has actually provided enough value to live up to the $14 million he’ll earn this year, although he’ll have difficulty keeping up with his contract when his salary jumps to $20+ million in each of the next five seasons.
Texas still has to make another trip to Houston this weekend in a series that could either help them pull away or turn the tides of this race in the Astros favor. The good news for Texas is that they finish the season with their final 7 games at home, while Houston finishes with 6 games on the road. While the Astros have a league-high 51 wins at home, they are only 29-46 on the road this season.
Next: Falling
Sep 18, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) walks off the field after being relieved in the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Falling
(AL team that is struggling)
Kansas City Royals: With a 10 game lead over the Minnesota Twins in the Central division, the Royals need not worry about losing their spot in the postseason. What should trouble them is losing their grip on the league’s best record, which would give them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Kansas City has dropped 6 of their last 10 games, leaving them with a mere 1.5 game edge over the Toronto Blue Jays for the league’s best record. If those two teams meet in the ALCS, the right to host a potential Game 7 at home could determine the series. Toronto has been average on the road this season, posting a 37-37 record away from the Rogers Centre.
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So, what’s up with Johnny Cueto? The Royals acquired him at the trade deadline expecting him to lead their rotation, but he’s been a flop so far with his new team. Through 10 starts with Kansas City he is 2-6 with a 5.12 ERA, which is nearly double what his ERA was at the time he was traded from Cincinnati. His strikeout rate has declined from 8.27 to 6.40 since the trade, while the .577 OPS he allowed to opposing hitters with the Reds has jumped to .837 with the Royals. He has already been roughed up for 5+ runs in a game 4 times since the trade, while only giving up 5 runs once in 19 starts with the Reds.
We know it’s more difficult to navigate the deeper lineups in the American League, but nobody could have anticipated switching leagues would make this much of a difference. Especially since he was moving from a hitters park in Cincinnati to a more pitcher-friendly environment in Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium.
Is he pitching through an injury? He did battle through some elbow soreness back in May, but he hasn’t missed a start since coming to Kansas City and his fastball hasn’t lost it’s velocity since the start of the season, even if it is down a tick from previous years. Is it bad luck? His .345 BABIP is significantly higher than his career average, so you would expect that to stabilize playing behind one of the league’s best defenses. Then again, defense can’t do much to prevent home runs and Cueto has given up 9 of them, nearly matching the 11 he surrendered with the Reds in less than half the number of innings.
The Royals will still be playing in October, but how long they last may depend on if Cueto can get back on track.
Next: Playoff Outlook
Sep 19, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) celebrates with Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson (20) after hitting a two run home run during the ninth inning in a game against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. The Boston Red Sox won 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
AL East Standings
(Division standings as of Wednesday morning)
Playoff Outlook
(Division leaders and teams holding a Wild Card spot in the American League)
AL East: Toronto Blue Jays (86-65)
AL Central: Kansas City Royals (87-63)
AL West: Texas Rangers (81-69)
Wild Card: New York Yankees (83-67)
Wild Card: Houston Astros (80-72)
Toronto holds a 2.5 game edge over the Yankees for the division title heading into their final head-to-head meeting Wednesday night. The Jay will wrap up the season with 7 of their last 10 games on the road, while New York gets 8 of their last 11 at home. That scheduling advantage could help the Yankees make a late push to overtake Toronto.
The Twins (2 games back) and Angels (2.5 games) are still in the Wild Card race, ready to pounce if either team in the AL West race were to falter. The Angels get to beat up on the Mariners and A’s at home before finishing on the road against the Rangers in a battle that could decide the final Wild Card spot.
Cleveland is still hanging around in the mix at 4.5 games back and they still have 6 games left against the Twins that could result in them overtaking their division rival in the race. The Indians finish the season with a 7 game homestand that wraps up with the Red Sox coming to town. If Terry Francona‘s team is going to make a late push for the playoffs, he may need to go through his old team to do it.