Who’s next to join Red Sox DH David Ortiz in 500 Home Run Club?

Sep 12, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (34) hits his 499th career home run during the first inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Once David Ortiz gained access to one of baseball’s most exclusive clubs by blasting his 500th career home run Saturday night, Boston Red Sox fans naturally began to wonder how high their iconic designated hitter could climb on the all-time list.

The rest of the baseball world quickly leaped ahead to the next most enticing question – who’s next?

Ortiz is the 27th member of the 500 Home Run Club and one of only three active players to achieve that milestone, joining Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. No other active player is even on the verge of being added to that list, with the next closest hitter being 90 homers away.

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We won’t see any new entrants anytime within the next year and it may be a while before we do. That doesn’t have to stop us from looking ahead with some predictions of the most likely active candidates to one day become the 28th member of this prestigious group.

In order for us to give serious consideration to these candidates they must be at least halfway to this milestone. Major League Baseball is bursting with a new wave of young talent that is beginning to take over the league, but we can’t reasonably project a hitter in their early 20’s to accomplish something that so few ever have. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are off to incredible starts to their careers, but lets not punch their tickets to Cooperstown just yet.

We are also going to leave out aging veterans that probably don’t have enough time left in their careers to get there. Carlos Beltran (388 career home runs) and Aramis Ramirez (385) could top the 400 mark by next year, but both are entering their late 30’s. They each may only have a couple years left in their careers, which won’t be enough given their recent track records. Unless they have already surpassed the 400 threshold, hitters older than 35 don’t have a realistic shot of reaching 500.

With this criteria in mind, let’s explore the top-5 options for active players that could conceivably reach 500 career home runs.

Next: Adrian Beltre

Sep 2, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre (29) hits an RBI triple during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Adrian Beltre
Current Total: 410

Beltre has the most career homers among active hitters that aren’t already in the 500 Club, but he’s also the oldest candidate at age 36. Can he hang around for a few more years to pile up 90 more?

The Rangers third baseman is signed through next season, so he’ll be back for at least one more year. After that it’s anyone’s guess. He still has one of the best gloves around at the hot corner, but eventually you would expect that his range would decrease to the point where he can no longer play the position every day. Even if he proves capable of staying at third base for a few more years, the team that signs him to his next contract will have to factor in that risk. That may influence the Rangers desire to keep him beyond 2016, considering Prince Fielder will be clogging the DH spot in Texas for the foreseeable future.

If he does change teams after next season, where he ends up could have an effect on his future home run production. If he ends up playing in a pitcher’s park that saps some of his power, which we saw happen during his Seattle years, that could reduce his projected career home run total. Unless he remains in Texas, there aren’t many other teams that play in a more homer-friendly environment than Globe Life Park.

The last two seasons have also seen Beltre’s power begin to dwindle. Last year was the first season he failed to reach 20 home runs since 2009, when he played 111 games during his last season in Seattle. His career was revitalized by a brief stint with the Red Sox the following year when he hit 28 home runs, and he topped that number in each of the next three seasons after moving to Texas. This season he currently has only 15, as his power continues to decline.

Given his current trajectory it would take about 5 more seasons for Beltre to crack 500, which would take him through his age 41 season. It’s unlikely he hangs around that long, especially if his production continues to drop.

Verdict: Lukewarm chance

Next: Miguel Cabrera

Sep 7, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) at bat against the Tampa Bay Rays at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Miguel Cabrera
Current Total: 407

Now here is where it gets interesting. Cabrera is within striking distance with less than 100 long balls to go, plus he’s only 32 years old. It certainly helps that he got off to an early start by debuting as a 20-year old in 2003, but he’s also been incredibly good at the plate ever since.

Cabrera hit 30+ homers in 9 of 10 seasons since his first full year in the big leagues in 2004. That run was capped off by back-to-back MVP campaigns in which he blasted 44 homers in each of them.

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While Cabrera remains an elite hitter with a batting average well north of .300, his power has started tail off the past two seasons. His home run total dropped to 25 last year and he currently sits at only 17 this year. Granted he missed a significant chunk of time due to injury this season, but that wasn’t he case last year when his .524 slugging percentage was the lowest he had posted since he was a 21-year old.

What Miggy has going in his favor is time. He has already agreed to a 10-year extension with the Tigers that doesn’t even kick in until next year. Assuming that he plays out the full contract, Cabrera only needs to average just under 10 home runs per season over the next decade in order to cruise to 500. Even if his days of hitting 30+ homers are behind him, he shouldn’t have much difficulty getting there.

As long as he stays relatively healthy for most of his remaining years then he should make a run at becoming only the 9th player to reach 600 career home runs.

Verdict: Strong chance

Next: Mark Teixeira

Aug 15, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; New York Yankees designated hitter Mark Teixeira (25) hits a RBI single against Toronto Blue Jays in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Teixeira
Current Total: 394

The power is still there, given that he clocked 31 homers this season. The problem for Teixeira has been staying on the field, as the Yankees first baseman is expected to miss the rest of the season with a leg injury that has limited him to 111 games. This comes on the heels of a year in which he missed 39 games and a 2013 season that was almost entirely wiped out by injury.

Teixeira still has another year left on the mega-contract he signed with the Yankees, so he’ll presumably reach the 400 mark wearing pinstripes. If he has another productive season then it may entice New York to offer him an extension, which would certainly give a boost to his chances since it would mean that he still gets to hit at Yankee Stadium.

After hitting 30+ homers in eight straight seasons, Teixeira’s home run totals suffered a hit when he started missing significant time due to various injuries. This year was proving to be a bounce-back season until the injury imp struck again. Will he be able to pick up where he left off next year or are the ailments that he keeps piling up a sign that his health will be a concern the rest of his career?

The 35-year old should have a few solid years left in him, which should put him within range of getting to 500. If he can avoid the disabled list and a drastic decline in his late 30’s, Teixeira will make a serious run at joining the club.

Verdict: Reasonable chance

Next: Prince Fielder

Aug 30, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers right fielder Ryan Braun (8) celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a solo hoe run in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Braun
Current Total: 255

Braun took the league by storm by cranking out 34 home runs in 2007 to capture the Rookie of the Year award. He followed that up by hitting at least 25 homers in each of his first 6 seasons, topping 32 in 5 of those seasons.

Braun finished as the runner-up in the MVP race in 2012 when he led the NL with a career-high 41 home runs. That’s the only year in which he has ever led the league in that category, as his career has been more about consistency rather than a number of monster seasons.

Of the current members of the 500 Home Run Club, Eddie Murray is the only one that never hit more than 41 home runs in his career. Murray’s career-high was only 33, but he hit at least 30 in five different seasons and played for 21 years in the big leagues. Even with over two decades of consistent production, Murray still barely made the list, finishing with 504 career home runs.

Braun will have difficulty duplicating that path to 500 unless he manages the same type of longevity, which seems unlikely given that he’s not even halfway to playing that many seasons at the age of 31. It also doesn’t help that he missed over 100 games in 2013.

Speaking of which, we can’t ignore the fact that those missed games two years ago came as the result of a suspension for a failed PED test. Braun had a bit of a down year in 2014 as he attempted to shake off the rust from a lengthy layoff, but he has returned to his All-Star form this year. While his numbers are starting to climb back towards his peak level, he has still only managed 25 home runs this season. It makes you wonder if he will ever get back to the 40+ level now that he’s clean.

Verdict: Long shot