Sep 7, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) at bat against the Tampa Bay Rays at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Current Total: 407
Now here is where it gets interesting. Cabrera is within striking distance with less than 100 long balls to go, plus he’s only 32 years old. It certainly helps that he got off to an early start by debuting as a 20-year old in 2003, but he’s also been incredibly good at the plate ever since.
Cabrera hit 30+ homers in 9 of 10 seasons since his first full year in the big leagues in 2004. That run was capped off by back-to-back MVP campaigns in which he blasted 44 homers in each of them.
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While Cabrera remains an elite hitter with a batting average well north of .300, his power has started tail off the past two seasons. His home run total dropped to 25 last year and he currently sits at only 17 this year. Granted he missed a significant chunk of time due to injury this season, but that wasn’t he case last year when his .524 slugging percentage was the lowest he had posted since he was a 21-year old.
What Miggy has going in his favor is time. He has already agreed to a 10-year extension with the Tigers that doesn’t even kick in until next year. Assuming that he plays out the full contract, Cabrera only needs to average just under 10 home runs per season over the next decade in order to cruise to 500. Even if his days of hitting 30+ homers are behind him, he shouldn’t have much difficulty getting there.
As long as he stays relatively healthy for most of his remaining years then he should make a run at becoming only the 9th player to reach 600 career home runs.
Verdict: Strong chance
Next: Mark Teixeira