Who’s next to join Red Sox DH David Ortiz in 500 Home Run Club?

Sep 2, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre (29) hits an RBI triple during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Adrian Beltre
Current Total: 410

Beltre has the most career homers among active hitters that aren’t already in the 500 Club, but he’s also the oldest candidate at age 36. Can he hang around for a few more years to pile up 90 more?

The Rangers third baseman is signed through next season, so he’ll be back for at least one more year. After that it’s anyone’s guess. He still has one of the best gloves around at the hot corner, but eventually you would expect that his range would decrease to the point where he can no longer play the position every day. Even if he proves capable of staying at third base for a few more years, the team that signs him to his next contract will have to factor in that risk. That may influence the Rangers desire to keep him beyond 2016, considering Prince Fielder will be clogging the DH spot in Texas for the foreseeable future.

If he does change teams after next season, where he ends up could have an effect on his future home run production. If he ends up playing in a pitcher’s park that saps some of his power, which we saw happen during his Seattle years, that could reduce his projected career home run total. Unless he remains in Texas, there aren’t many other teams that play in a more homer-friendly environment than Globe Life Park.

The last two seasons have also seen Beltre’s power begin to dwindle. Last year was the first season he failed to reach 20 home runs since 2009, when he played 111 games during his last season in Seattle. His career was revitalized by a brief stint with the Red Sox the following year when he hit 28 home runs, and he topped that number in each of the next three seasons after moving to Texas. This season he currently has only 15, as his power continues to decline.

Given his current trajectory it would take about 5 more seasons for Beltre to crack 500, which would take him through his age 41 season. It’s unlikely he hangs around that long, especially if his production continues to drop.

Verdict: Lukewarm chance

Next: Miguel Cabrera

Sep 7, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) at bat against the Tampa Bay Rays at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Miguel Cabrera
Current Total: 407

Now here is where it gets interesting. Cabrera is within striking distance with less than 100 long balls to go, plus he’s only 32 years old. It certainly helps that he got off to an early start by debuting as a 20-year old in 2003, but he’s also been incredibly good at the plate ever since.

Cabrera hit 30+ homers in 9 of 10 seasons since his first full year in the big leagues in 2004. That run was capped off by back-to-back MVP campaigns in which he blasted 44 homers in each of them.

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While Cabrera remains an elite hitter with a batting average well north of .300, his power has started tail off the past two seasons. His home run total dropped to 25 last year and he currently sits at only 17 this year. Granted he missed a significant chunk of time due to injury this season, but that wasn’t he case last year when his .524 slugging percentage was the lowest he had posted since he was a 21-year old.

What Miggy has going in his favor is time. He has already agreed to a 10-year extension with the Tigers that doesn’t even kick in until next year. Assuming that he plays out the full contract, Cabrera only needs to average just under 10 home runs per season over the next decade in order to cruise to 500. Even if his days of hitting 30+ homers are behind him, he shouldn’t have much difficulty getting there.

As long as he stays relatively healthy for most of his remaining years then he should make a run at becoming only the 9th player to reach 600 career home runs.

Verdict: Strong chance

Next: Mark Teixeira

Aug 15, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; New York Yankees designated hitter Mark Teixeira (25) hits a RBI single against Toronto Blue Jays in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Teixeira
Current Total: 394

The power is still there, given that he clocked 31 homers this season. The problem for Teixeira has been staying on the field, as the Yankees first baseman is expected to miss the rest of the season with a leg injury that has limited him to 111 games. This comes on the heels of a year in which he missed 39 games and a 2013 season that was almost entirely wiped out by injury.

Teixeira still has another year left on the mega-contract he signed with the Yankees, so he’ll presumably reach the 400 mark wearing pinstripes. If he has another productive season then it may entice New York to offer him an extension, which would certainly give a boost to his chances since it would mean that he still gets to hit at Yankee Stadium.

After hitting 30+ homers in eight straight seasons, Teixeira’s home run totals suffered a hit when he started missing significant time due to various injuries. This year was proving to be a bounce-back season until the injury imp struck again. Will he be able to pick up where he left off next year or are the ailments that he keeps piling up a sign that his health will be a concern the rest of his career?

The 35-year old should have a few solid years left in him, which should put him within range of getting to 500. If he can avoid the disabled list and a drastic decline in his late 30’s, Teixeira will make a serious run at joining the club.

Verdict: Reasonable chance

Next: Prince Fielder

Sep 5, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Texas Rangers designated hitter Prince Fielder (84) walks back to the dugout after being forced out at first against the Los Angeles Angels during the seventh inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Prince Fielder
Current Total: 306

Fielder blasted 28 homers in his first full season a the age of 22, so the early start certainly works in his favor. He followed that with a career-high 50 home runs in 2007 and went on to hit 30+ homers in each of the following 5 seasons.

2014 was essentially a lost season, as Fielder struggled through a neck injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. He attempted to fight through the pain for 42 games, but the injury sapped him of his power and he finished with only 3 home runs.

This year has seen Fielder establish himself again as one of the game’s most feared hitters, but the power hasn’t quite returned. He currently has 18 homers, which puts him on pace to set a career-low for any season in which he has played at least 50 games.

Perhaps Fielder will find his power stroke again the further he is removed from surgery. The 31-year old should still have plenty of time left in his career to get back on track, while his current contract should keep him in the hitter-friendly Rangers ballpark for at least another five years.

The biggest concern with Fielder is that his body type isn’t ideal for a long-lasting career. His father, Cecil Fielder, was also once one of the league’s best power hitters, until he faded drastically at the age of 33 and was out of the league a year later. Prince isn’t far from reaching the age at which his father’s career took a nose dive, so if he doesn’t get himself in better shape then he risks suffering a similar fate.

Verdict: Reasonable chance

Next: Ryan Braun

Aug 30, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers right fielder Ryan Braun (8) celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a solo hoe run in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Braun
Current Total: 255

Braun took the league by storm by cranking out 34 home runs in 2007 to capture the Rookie of the Year award. He followed that up by hitting at least 25 homers in each of his first 6 seasons, topping 32 in 5 of those seasons.

Braun finished as the runner-up in the MVP race in 2012 when he led the NL with a career-high 41 home runs. That’s the only year in which he has ever led the league in that category, as his career has been more about consistency rather than a number of monster seasons.

Of the current members of the 500 Home Run Club, Eddie Murray is the only one that never hit more than 41 home runs in his career. Murray’s career-high was only 33, but he hit at least 30 in five different seasons and played for 21 years in the big leagues. Even with over two decades of consistent production, Murray still barely made the list, finishing with 504 career home runs.

Braun will have difficulty duplicating that path to 500 unless he manages the same type of longevity, which seems unlikely given that he’s not even halfway to playing that many seasons at the age of 31. It also doesn’t help that he missed over 100 games in 2013.

Speaking of which, we can’t ignore the fact that those missed games two years ago came as the result of a suspension for a failed PED test. Braun had a bit of a down year in 2014 as he attempted to shake off the rust from a lengthy layoff, but he has returned to his All-Star form this year. While his numbers are starting to climb back towards his peak level, he has still only managed 25 home runs this season. It makes you wonder if he will ever get back to the 40+ level now that he’s clean.

Verdict: Long shot