Red Sox Top 6 Free Agent Pitcher Targets In 2015

The Boston Red Sox starting rotation took a lot of flack before the 2015 season even began, and continue to take it as we get closer to the end of the year. Rob Bradford of WEEI.com mentioned six pitchers in his article who could be top free agent targets for 2016. He made an argument to justify how their signings should still not stop the Red Sox from picking up the team option on their current ace Clay Buchholz, which was reviewed in yesterday’s ‘Chowda’.

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Let’s take for granted that the Red Sox make enough moves to feel comfortable with Buchholz’s option and look at the six proposed candidates to be added to the roster.

Each of these players are starting pitchers for their respective clubs, whom at one point or another were invovled in trade rumors before this year’s trade deadline. Three of them were traded this year. Two of them were traded last year, as well. Five of them spent the majority of their playing days in the National League. One has a great deal of experience with the American League East division, and is still currently there.

Who will be the best fit in Boston? If you were the president of baseball operations, like Dave Dombrowski, who would you choose to sign?

* Note: All pitch types and their statistics were found on FanGraphs.com. All other statistics come from MLB.com.

#6 – Doug Fister

The seven-year veteran from Merced, California has fallen quickly from the baseball gods this season. At 31 years of age, the righty picked up two major injuries, since being traded to the Washington Nationals from the Detroit Tigers in 2013.

On March 23, 2014 Fister picked up a right lat strain and was placed on the 15-day disabled list. He didn’t come back to the big club until the following May. This May, Fister complained about his pitching arm, and was diagnosed with right forearm tightness, often the codewords for Tommy John surgery. However, instead, Fister came back to the Nationals on June 18th.

That return has not been pleasant for Nats fans. So far, Fister has a 4-7 record with a 4.66 ERA and 55 strikeouts. His struggles in July, going 1-3 with a 4.82 ERA and an opposing batting average of .319 in five starts, contributed to the Nats moving Fister into the bullpen. He didn’t like it, but he went.

And it hasn’t been much better. Fister had a loss and a 6.39 ERA with a .346 opposing batting average in August.

To be fair, Fister does have a fairly decent .263 against lefty bats; however, his .352 against righty bats is killing any chance of Fister making a comeback.

MLB’s web site has projected Fister to end the 2015 season with a 5-8 record and a 4.42 ERA in 114 innings of work. All of this has cost the Nationals $11.4 million this year, a season where they let the New York Mets slip past them in the National League East division. They may not even make the playoffs, as they are behind both the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs for the wild card spots.

The evidence is pretty absolute in the deduction that Fister will be taking a severe cut to whatever he thought that he was worth. This contract year was, unfortunately for Fister, a disaster. Don’t expect the Red Sox to get into any form of bidding war for him. Even for a try-out year, they could be making the same mistake that they made with Justin Masterson.

#4 – Johnny Cueto

Before everyone gets their pitchforks out, just hold on and look at how Cueto has done in the American League for the Kansas City Royals. Try to forget the fact that the eight-year vet has been the ace for the Cincinnati Reds, before being traded at the deadline. Pretend that the 29-year-old righty had many of Red Sox Nation drooling before he was moved.

The man, who thinks that he’s worth a heck of a lot more than $10 million this season, is expecting a big payday for a 9-9 record, with a 2.94 ERA and 152 strikeouts in 171.2 innings. If you rush to the argument that his ERA is very respectable and that he lost games playing for a bad team, consider the following: Cueto is 2-3 in six starts, allowing 19 runs (18 earned) on 45 hits in 41 innings of work.  That effort was for one of the best defensive teams in the majors and the AL champs from a year ago; it doesn’t get much better than that.

Cueto’s opposing batting averages are .243 against lefties and an astonishing .310 against righties. Imagine that in Fenway Park.

Why imagine? In his recent start for the Royals in Boston, Cueto allowed seven runs, six earned, on 13 hits, no walks, and three strikeouts in six innings. The Red Sox’ .433 batting average alone made the Royals’ manager give Cueto the hook, as he took the loss.

Cueto’s seven-pitch arsenal didn’t do much to help the situation. His fastball moves at just under 93 mph and he relies on it 50.9% of the time. When you have a sinker, a slider, a curve, a changeup, and a cutter, why the reliance on the fastball? Age catching up and trying to deny it? Maybe not, but if that’s not pretty suspect then his recent outings have been.

Unlikely that any of this will cut through the hype surrounding this polarizing figure, as Cueto will continue to ask for a great deal of money. The Red Sox should be wary of this man, as they need more than one player to help fix their issues. Putting ace-money into a man whom has only made middle-rotation results, so far, seems foolish. Just ask the Toronto Blue Jays with their R.A. Dickey contract. Cueto is not Dickey, but even the knuckler needed at least two years before he started performing better.

#3 – Jordan Zimmerman

The 29-year-old righty from Wisconsin has played all seven years of his MLB career in the NL with the Nationals. He may want to ask for big money from the Red Sox, as well as other teams, simply to drive the price up for the Nationals to try to match, as he may feel comfortable playing there. His homelife may be something that he doesn’t want interrupted through signing elsewhere.

If a couple of factors are not addressed, Zimmerman may have nothing to worry about.

For $16.5 million, Zimmerman has a 10-8 record, with a 3.54 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 160 innings, this season. He’s projected to have a 13-10 record by the end of the year. In his last seven starts, Zimmerman has a 2-3 record and a 4.26 ERA, including the four runs that he allowed against the Colorado Rockies and another four runs against the Milwaukee Brewers. Not horrific, and neither is the .242 opposing batting average in August, down from .268 in July.

Zimmerman’s assortment of pitches are more standard than some of the other names in Bradford’s article. His four-seamer and two-seamer are both clocked around 93 mph, with a slider at 87 mph, a curve, and a rarely-used changeup to complete the set. Zimmerman used them in both of his only starts in Fenway Park, a combined effort of 11 runs, 10 earned, on three walks and seven strikeouts in 9.1 innings. He earned a loss and a no-decision in those appearances.

For the money, Zimmerman would be the better value than the three aforementioned pitchers. For more than $16.5 million, however, Zimmerman might be dreaming. The Red Sox, if they find that their other choices are already taken, should try to sign him for either on par or less money. Maybe sweeten the deal with more years on the contract, but that’s it. The only reason to pay more for Zimmerman is that all other options are gone and they still need another pitcher who is a solid competitor.

#2 – Mike Leake

Leake was traded to the 2014 World Series Champion San Francisco Giants, this season. Cueto’s former teammate in Cincinnati is a 27-year-old righty from San Diego, California, making it easy for anyone to think that maybe Leake would want to re-sign with the Giants, a team that’s relatively close to home.

Having the same issues as Cueto, being on a bad team, Leake posted a record of 9-6 and a 3.53 ERA, with 105 strikeouts, so far this season. On August 7th, the Giants had to put Leake on the 15-day disabled list with a left hamstring strain, but reactivated him on the 22nd. In his last seven appearances, Leake is 4-1 with a very attractive 1.66 ERA and 36 strikeouts to only eight walks in 48.2 innings.

Leake’s projection is 12-9, a 3.64 ERA, and 131 strikeouts in 193 innings. His pitch types include six different styles: a four-seamer clocked at 90,5 mph, a sinker, a traditional slider, a knuckle curve, a changeup, and a cutter. Leake relied on his fastball about 45% of the time, but gives batters a good mix with the rest of his pitches.

Currently at $9.78 million, Leake likely will not ask for nearly as much as Cueto, Zimmerman, or Samardzija, as the hype has not been as heavy for his services as for the rest. However, with a post-All-Star- Break opposing batting average of .156, with a .263 against lefties and a .212 against righty bats, maybe he will start to think very highly of his worth. Likely other teams will, too.

Aug 28, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher

(14) poses for a photo during batting practice before a game against the Detroit Tigers at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

#1 – David Price

A general manager’s dream: a true ace who still plays like an ace at the age of 30. Price’s pedigree includes being drafted first overall in the first round by the Tampa Bay Rays. The eight-year vet from Tenessee was traded, along with his golden arm, from Tampa to the Detroit Tigers last season, as Tampa wanted to get the most for him because they didn’t think they would be able to re-sign him. The Tigers must have felt the same this season, as they traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays whom, like the Tigers from last year, are looking to make a deep playoff run.

Price has earned a 13-4 record, with a 2.42 ERA and 179 strikeouts in 182.1 innings. He would have had more wins, instead of no-decisions, in 26 starts had it not been for the Tigers’ offensive players being injured throughout the year.

With the Blue Jays, Price is 4-0 in five starts. He’s also projected to end the year, which will likely continue into the post-season, with an 18-7 record, a 2.57 ERA, and 221 strikeouts in 224.1 innings. That’s what $19.75 million buys you.

The Price you want is the one that gives you a .267 and .233 opposing batting averages against lefties and righties, respectively. It gives you a .186 average in 11 games in the cathedral of Boston, via Yawkey Way. Price has a allowed a 1.95 ERA with 60 strikeouts to only 21 walks in those 74 innings. Red Sox Nation may just burst into song if they get the opportunity to see him in Fenway Park in Boston’s home jersey.

You could look at his 94-mph fastball, that he depends on even more than Cueto, using it 56% of the time, and cry out as this author’s hypocracy. You could argue that his disregard for his slider in favor of a cutter is wonderous and confusing. You could argue that his knuckle-curve and his changeup should be used more, especially since he’s left-handed. You could even argue that his once-tension-filled relationship with David Ortiz, the face of the Red Sox franchise, may still cause problems in the clubhouse.

But, if you want John Henry and the ownership group to summon Dombrowski into the head office and demand that he get the best pitcher on the free agent market, regardless of money, then Price is the name you want. That is, unless the deep pockets of the Rogers group who own the Jays don’t re-sign him, first.

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