Guaranteed to happen: Red Sox predictions

Sep 10, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; A general view of Fenway Park during the seventh inning of the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions have long been a staple of baseball fans, especially Red Sox fans, and Bill James even created a cottage industry with PECOTA. Player predictions, team predictions and management predictions and, of course, the ever changing odds on who will make the playoffs or win the MVP.

I do recall that in a Nostradamus quatrain was something about a “Red leathering wearing fiefdom expunging the curse of the rotund hero.” So, just maybe, this baseball predicting goes back to the 16th century? So now it is baseball swami time for what the crystal ball ($9.95) portends for the Red Sox.

Jul 2, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli (12) hits a double during the eighth inning in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. The Boston Red Sox won 12-6. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction: DFA – Mike Napoli

Dustin Pedroia is back with an offensive vengeance slashing .306/.367/.452 and with some old-time Pedroia power. Then another injury and, thankfully, not to his hand, but leg. A little rest and rehab and back to irritating pest status in a few weeks or less. What to do with Brock Holt?

Holt is not nosediving as in 2014 and has performed reasonably well at second ……and third….and short….and the outfield. You just do not – John Farrell – sit a .300 hitter with a Mensa rating in baseball smarts.

The solution is a simple and a costly one: DFA Napoli. An 8M gift to Napoli and another team hoping for some type of Napoli second half resurrection. The Red Sox have toyed with a mix and match approach at first base and that may just be greasing the skids for Napoli.

Approaching 34-years-old the affable Napoli just may have reached a status of being sent to the baseball boneyard of players who just saw their career spiral in the wrong direction.

With Jackie Bradley and Rusney Castillo a 50 mile trip away the moving Holt to the outfield is not critical, especially with the emergence of Alejandro De Aza.

Jun 28, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Koji Uehara (19) and Boston Red Sox catcher Blake Swihart (23) celebrate after they defeat the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Boston Red Sox defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction: Blake Swihart becomes starting catcher.

Sandy Leon would be considered an acceptable hitter if he was in the National League and a pitcher. He is neither. Leon was dumped by Washington and hired on by Boston, based on his defensive skills and especially a 48% career caught stealing percentage. Leon’s claim to a roster spot is further enhanced by his symbiotic relationship with Clay Buchholz.

Ryan Hanigan is a desirable catcher who has his MLB niche clearly described in his statistical résumé – backup catcher. Translation is simple: Good enough to play a few games a week and not kill you. Unfortunately the loss of Christian Vasquez placed Hanigan into the numero uno catching mode until injury intervened.

Swihart did the job offensively in Boston slashing .241/.279/.323, but – as Paul Harvey would say: “Now for the rest of the story.” In his last 15 games, before sustaining an “injury,” Swihart slashed .298/.353/.383. That shows adjustment.

So the 23-year-old switch hitter deserves to have his future now. A future that could have been with a dozen other teams who salivated at the prospect of acquiring this talented player via a coma induced trade with the Red Sox. The Red Sox have, thankfully, repeatedly spurred offers.

The difficult decision is just not that difficult since the Nationals already did in the beginning on the season – just DFA Leon and go with Swihart.

Jun 23, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Joe Kelly (56) pitches against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction: Joe Kelly returns and Red Sox trade for bullpen help.

The Red Sox bullpen is Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara. That’s it. The rest is pitching flotsam and jetsam. A collection of baseball white flags signaling the Red Sox are about to allow the opposition the pleasure of padding their batting statistics.

There are two potential solutions and the best path is to combine both under the old adage “You never have enough pitching.”

Step one is to get Kelly into the bullpen. Based on his performance as a starter this is comparable to handing a loaded gun to a three-year-old, but Kelly has a history of professional and nonprofessional (college) bullpen duty. In MLB service the 52.2 innings had a .333 BABIP, a WHIP of 1.35 and 3.25 ERA attached. Compared to what we have seen dance out of the bullpen this is actually enough to do a Beau Jangles dance.

The Red Sox are stuffed with promising talent in the minors and that means trade potential. Time to move a few pieces to shore up the ‘pen and hope this does not end up as Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson.

Mar 24, 2015; Jupiter, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brian Johnson (78) throws against the Miami Marlins at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction: Brian Johnson is a regular addition to the rotation. Justin Masterson to bullpen.

Nothing much left in Pawtucket for Johnson except to get his work in and watch the box scores. The call will come. That call has to come. Manager Kevin Boles will call him into his office and pat him on the back and say: “Kid, you’re going to the big club and probably never coming back.”

The rotation is starting to solidify with three pitchers that make one feel we have a chance at shutting down the opposition – Wade Miley, Buchholz and Eduardo Rodriguez. However, this is not 1895 and a rotation consists of five reliable – or close to reliable – starters and not the three for nine innings each of the Dead Ball Era.

So who gets dumped? Rick Porcello is signed into the next ice age with an enormous contract for being statistically the bottom of the starters barrel in the AL. Masterson is doing his absolute best to match Porcello for getting bopped around. The Red Sox go with Porcello and move Masterson to the bullpen.

Jul 5, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (34) celebrates rounding the bases after Boston Red Sox left fielder Hanley Ramirez (13) hit a two-run home run as Houston Astros shortstop Marwin Gonzalez (9) walks away during the seventh inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction: David Ortiz announces retirement.

Ortiz walks away from 10M option to call it a career. Ortiz will do this despite respectable home run and RBI totals, but a shrinking batting average.

Ortiz has primed Boston for this day with talks about his legacy, PED’s, HOF and just about any baseball related topic that touches on his career. There will be no farewell tour nor a spectacular post season performance since the Red Sox will be sitting this one out.