Red Sox Series Preview: Meet the Marlins

Jul 5, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Koji Uehara (19) pitches during the ninth inning of the Boston Red Sox 5-4 win over the Houston Astros at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY SportsOptimism is on the upswing at Fenway Park for the Red Sox after they took their weekend series with the AL West leading Houston Astros in dramatic fashion with a late home run.  On Tuesday, the Sox take on the Miami Marlins for an abbreviated two game set, in an unusual week when the Red Sox will have two days off in the last week before the All-Star Game on Tuesday July 14.  The Yankees follow the Marlins in to town on Friday but the Red Sox need to keep their momentum going into that huge series.

The Miami Marlins are in fourth place in the National League East.  Their record is 35-48 and they are 11 games behind the first place Washington Nationals.  The team expected to be better.  The Marlins traded minor leaguers for starting pitcher Dan Haren and second baseman Dee Gordon from the Dodgers.  They inked Giancarlo Stanton and outfielder Christian Yelich to long extensions.  Like the Red Sox, they had a difficult May which sent them under .500 from which they have been unable to recover.  Unlike the Red Sox, it cost their manager Mike Redmond his job.  Dan Jennings, the Marlins former GM, took his place despite no managerial or big league experience on May 17.  His record is 19-26 in his first season at the helm.

The Marlins are not a good road team, currently sporting a 14-26 record away from home. They lost their last two games at the Chicago Cubs after a four game winning streak, including sweeping the San Francisco Giants in Miami. Let’s take a look at the Marlins, who recently lost Stanton to a broken hand (who was voted to be an All-Star starter) which has everyone writing them off from contending this season.

Jul 1, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Dan Haren (15) throws against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Pitching Matchups:

Tuesday July 7:  Dan Haren (6-5, 3.45) vs. Wade Miley (8-7, 4.53)

Haren leads the Marlins with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He is 1-5 with a 4.08 ERA in six career starts at Fenway in his career (2-7, 3.41 ERA overall vs. Boston). The right hander, originally a pick of the St. Louis Cardinals (and pitched for them against the Red Sox in the 2004 World Series) is on his fourth team in as many seasons. His last start against the Red Sox was May 3, 2011 while a member of the Los Angeles Angels. Haren took the loss in that game, allowing four runs over seven innings. He is winless over his last 5 starts (0-3, 4.06), during which the team has given him just 12 runs of support.

Miley is looking to bounce back from an extremely shaky five inning performance vs. Toronto in which he walked seven batters (as many as his previous four starts combined). He only secured the win by getting eight runs in the first inning from his offense. Since his brief tantrum in the dugout in Baltimore on June 11, he has posted a 3-1 record with 3.04 ERA over 23.2 innings pitched with only one home run allowed in that span.

Wednesday July 8:  Tom Koehler (7-4, 3.52) vs. Rick Porcello (4-9, 6.08)

Koehler will be making the first appearance of his career vs. the Red Sox. The six foot three inch right hander, former 18th round draft choice, has won his last three starts. Against the American League East this season, he is 2-1, with a 3.15 ERA. He beat the Yankees and Orioles and lost to the Blue Jays who touched him up for three home runs and five earned runs over 6.2 innings.

Porcello has been one of the worst starters in the major leagues. He is 0-7, posting an 8.18 ERA over his last eight starts. The Red Sox managed to win the other game in which he did not get a decision. In three of those losses, winning streaks of at least two games were halted. Porcello’s last win at home came against Tampa Bay on May 5. The team is hoping the return of catcher Ryan Hanigan with whom Porcello had a 3.79 ERA in three starts early in the season, can help Porcello turn his season around.

Jul 4, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Shane Victorino (18) advances to third on Boston Red Sox catcher Sandy Leon (3) single (not pictured) during the second inning of the game against the Houston Astros at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Red Sox Key Players to Watch

Shane Victorino

Victorino has been limited to just 74 plate appearances this season. He just came back from his second stint on the disabled list this season on Saturday with two hits and on Sunday contributed a key sacrifice. The team is 14-8 when he plays so his presence is important if the Red Sox are going to make a run in the second half. Fans are skeptical that he will stay healthy, considering his all-out style of play, and the fact that he was only able to play 30 games last season and 122 games in 2013. Even if he stayed healthy for the rest of the season, he would only have played about half the possible games in his three year, $39 million contract signed before the 2013 season.
 

Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts has looked right at home in the third spot in the lineup since Dustin Pedroia has been on the shelf. In 12 starts there he has slashed .340/.375/.453 while hitting six doubles and driving in eight runs. Look for him to continue his success as the Sox try to build on their recent streak of winning seven of ten games. Since he is near the top in every statistical category for shortstops, he should be on the All-Star team this season.
 

Jul 5, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (34) celebrates rounding the bases after Boston Red Sox left fielder Hanley Ramirez (13) hit a two-run home run as Houston Astros shortstop Marwin Gonzalez (9) walks away during the seventh inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Predictions:

• Game One Winner:  Boston Red Sox
• Game Two Winner:  Boston Red Sox

Final Thoughts

The Red Sox catch another break on the injury front (the Astros dynamic George Springer was also injured on a hit by pitch) in this series. Stanton will not be in the lineup for this two game set. Miley will be facing a much weaker offense than Toronto in a Miami club that is 26th in the majors in runs scored. The Red Sox have taken three straight series against contending teams, so their confidence should be at a high point for the season.

The hope is that the team will not look past the Marlins to the Yankee series this weekend. Though the team needs an extended winning streak to get them past the .500 mark, winning each series will help accomplish that goal in the long run. Beating up on a sub-par team like the Marlins, and avoiding elite starter Jose Fernandez, whom the team is giving an extra day off after his first start returning from Tommy John surgery, is what the team needs to do to keep the ball rolling.

While Haren is a veteran, he has not had a lot of success in Fenway and has not won over his last five starts in which he hasn’t gotten run support. Koehler is a young pitcher who has never pitched in Fenway before, so they have a good chance to work the counts and get him rattled to get the offense clicking on all cylinders. The Red Sox need to take care of business against a losing team, remembering the Marlins’ -39 run differential is still better than their own of -43.

The prediction here is a sweep of this quick two game set.