Red Sox Series Preview: A War North Of The Border

Jul 1, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; A general view as a Canadian flag is unfurled across the outfield for Canada Day before the game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox (34-43) continue their road trip, after taking two of three games from the Tampa Bay Rays, heading over the northern border to face the Toronto Blue Jays (41-36). With four out of the five teams in the American League East division being within a game of each other, and the Red Sox looking to climb back into the race, this series will have great importance.

One game in particular will change the landscape of the series. In Toronto, many Blue Jays fans come to the Rogers Centre to show their support; however, the crowd atmosphere is not like other ballparks. People wearing opposing team outfits are free to walk around the park, cheering for their team that isn’t the Jays, as much as they want and in large numbers. On July 1st, however, that will not be the case.

That day is Canada Day, the nation’s birthday when all of Toronto forsakes the traditional blue for the red-and-white that makes up their flag. The place will be packed and the energy will be electric. And you thought Canadians only celebrated hockey and maple syrup in droves. Shame on you!

That game will be the one that will be deafening for the Red Sox, who will have less red on than the rest of the place. Both teams are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but the Blue Jays will have the distinct home advantage. Besides the fandom, the Jays are 25-15 at home where they feed off of the crowd. The Red Sox are 17-23 on the road. They may have overcome the fans in Tropicana Field, but that was Tampa. On Canada Day week, with the home crowd going crazy in a packed set of bleachers, it will be very different fireworks than what the Red Sox have seen lately.

Let’s look at the tale of the tape for this four-game series:

** All statistics, other than pitch types, come from MLB.com

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Jun 20, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Mark Buehrle (56) throws a pitch during the first inning in a game against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Pitching Matchups @ Blue Jays (Rogers Centre):

June 29th @ 7:07 PM ET

• Clay Buchholz (5-6, 3.68 ERA) vs. R.A. Dickey (3-7, 4.88 ERA)
• The righty veteran for the Red Sox has been significantly lowering his ERA, since the first two-and-a-half months  of the season. In his last three games, Buchholz has allowed five runs and three walks, while striking out 13 opposing batters. The only problem is that four of those runs came in one game: against the Toronto Blue Jays.
• Even with a 1-1 record in his last three games, Dickey’s knuckleball has been dancing well for him and the Blue Jays. He’s allowed seven runs in that span, while walking nine and striking out 14 batters. After starting the season being pulled quickly in games, Dickey has lasted at least to the seventh inning in each of his recent starts.  Do not expect the Red Sox to get to the bullpen early, if Dickey can keep the damage to a minimum. Since the game will be in the Rogers Centre, Dickey should be feelin’ like dancin’ the night away. All three of his wins, including a complete game, were at home.

June 30th @ 7:07 PM ET

• Eduardo Rodriguez (3-2, 4.33 ERA) vs. Marco Estrada (5-3, 3.45 ERA)
• The Red Sox’ 22-year-old lefty was roughed up for two losses in his last three starts, although he had a good start to win against a tough Kansas City Royals lineup. Rodriguez gave up only a single run on six hits in 6.1 innings. However, in his last start against the Blue Jays, Toronto smacked him around for nine earned runs on eight hits and three walks in 4.2 innings.
• Estrada has come out of nowhere and decided to be an elite pitcher, lately. The righty has won two out of the last three starts, with his no-decision coming from flirting with a perfect game, ending in the ninth inning on the last out against the Rays. He allowed just two hits and struck out 10 batters in the cause, lasting 8.2 innings. Estrada is the hottest pitcher on the Blue Jays and, quite possibly, the entire American League.

July 1st (Canada Day) @ 1:07 PM ET

• Rick Porcello (4-8, 5.54 ERA) vs. Mark Buehrle (8-4, 3.81 ERA)
• Porcello is not going to be mistaken for being a hot pitcher, as of late. He’s 0-6 in his last seven starts. He’s giving up runs like they are going out of style and a fashion outlet mall, giving up 33 runs on 52 hits in 42 innings. It’s not the walks that have burned him, as Porcello has only given up nine walks in that same span. He is being spanked around the park in every direction other than victory.
• In Buehrle’s case, he’s been a happy man on and off of the field. From his big smiles in the dugout, to his laughter with fellow players and the media in the clubhouse, to his calm demeanor on the mound, Buehrle has been showing what it means to be a comfortable veteran. His talents, experience, and personality have allowed the young Blue Jays to approach and learn from him as much as they can, hoping some of that success rubs off on them, too. Buehrle may be only 1-0 in his last three starts, but he’s allowed only five runs in that stretch, each  appearance lasting, with ease, to the eighth inning. Look for more of the same at the Rogers Centre, as Buehrle is 4-1 at home, and that day he will have the entire country of Canada cheering for him and the Blue Jays.

July 2nd @ 7:07 PM ET

• Wade Miley (7-7, 4.38 ERA) vs. Matt Boyd (0-1, 5.40 ERA)
• The Red Sox lefty has been burning hot since turning red in the face in front of his manager John Farrell. Miley is now 2-1 in his last three starts, with the loss being from a lack of run support. In that game, Miley threw 6.1 innings, allowing two runs on five hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts. In his previous two outings, Miley allowed a combined two runs, 10 hits, five walks, and 10 strikeouts. If he keeps this up, Miley might start to be called a consistently successful pitcher. Oh my!
• In his first major league start, Boyd did fairly well, considering the pressure. He game up four earned runs on nine hits in almost seven innings. The runs felt more like he bled them slowly, while his team didn’t give him the run support to overcome the deficit. The 24-year-old lefty has a six-foot-three frame and showed four different types of pitches: the four-seamer, the slider, the curve, and the changeup. It’s worth noting that he threw the fastball and slider over 85% of the time, according to FanGraphs.com, suggesting that his nerves may have gotten to him to want to throw faster pitches. His fastball tapped out at 91 mph.

Jun 25, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Alejandro De Aza (31) touches hands with fans after hitting three run homer during the fourth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Red Sox Key Players To Watch:

• With Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez out with injuries, and no quick time-table as to their return, other position players will have to step up against the Blue Jays’ pitching staff. One player who continues to be a factor for the Red Sox is Alejandro De Aza, the more recent acquisition from the Baltimore Orioles. De Aza has hit three home runs and six RBIs, hitting left-handed for a .353 batting average, in the last seven games. He has been a major source for the Red Sox offense, and he wasn’t even in the original plans in April.

• The designated hitter and face of the franchise David Ortiz has slowly turned things around for himself, recently. He hit two home runs and four RBIs, including the runs that won the game, last night, against the Rays. However, be careful thinking that all is well in Ortizville, again, as Big Papi is only hitting .182 in the last seven games. His production has been more of situational hitting than consistent success.

• Center fielder Mookie Betts has cooled off in recent games, after lighting it up in early June. However, much like Ortiz, Betts is finding a way to contribute. While only hitting .167 in the last seven games, Betts has crossed the plate four times and has one of the only two stolen bases for the team. Then again, that might not mean much when you realize that Mike Napoli has the other one. Regardless, Betts is putting himself into scoring positions for the Red Sox to score more runs. Any player who can do that without hitting well can be a huge danger once he figures his issues out at the plate.

Jun 28, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Koji Uehara (19) and Boston Red Sox catcher Blake Swihart (23) celebrate after they defeat the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Boston Red Sox defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions:

• Game One Winner: Boston Red Sox
• Game Two Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
• Game Three Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
• Game Four Winner: Boston Red Sox

Final Thought –

This series is going to come down to how long the Red Sox pitchers can keep the Blue Jays off of the scoreboard. Even if the Blue Jays score first, the Red Sox can still be in the game as long as the opposition’s scoring is slow. On paper, it looks like Buchholz should outduel Dickey, but he also could be due for a big loss. With the way that Rodriguez has been hit, lately, it would seem that Estrada would be too much for the Red Sox bats. Porcello… there are no words. He has almost insurmountable odds stacked against him, between the holiday crowd, the high-powered offense against him, and his own troubling issues. The only thing close to a guarantee is Miley having the skills to outmatch the rookie Boyd. However, we are still talking about the man who looked more like a horror movie before the month of June.

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