Red Sox Series Preview: Vs. Minnesota Twins

May 23, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder

(32) catches a fly ball hit by Chicago White Sox center fielder

(1) in the eighth inning at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox (21-23) go back on the road and start their three-game series against the Minnesota Twins (25-18), tonight. While the Red Sox are 5-5 in their last 10 games, they won their series against the Los Angeles Angels by winning their last two games, handily. The Twins are also winners of their last two games, going 7-3 in their last 10.

The Twins are only three games back of the American League Central division leaders, the Kansas City Royals, and will look to improve their strong home record (14-6) at the expense of Boston’s brethren. The Red Sox are an even .500 on the road, so you never quite know what you’ll get from them. It should be an interesting matchup, considering two out of three games will be during the early afternoon, instead of night games.

Let’s look at the tale of the tape:

**All statistics are from MLB.com

May 22, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Phil Hughes (45) throws against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Pitching Matchups @ Twins (Target Field)

May 25th @ 2:10 PM ET;

• Joe Kelly (1-3, 5.13 ERA) vs. Ricky Nolasco (4-1, 6.00 ERA)
• After four games where he gave up at least five runs apiece, Kelly has had two solid starts that combined for allowing only three runs. Yet, he had a no-decision and a loss in that stretch. If the offense doesn’t pick up, it won’t matter if Kelly has turned the corner on his season.
• The righty Nolasco has only one start where he allowed less than three runs, when he blanked the Detroit Tigers, a high-octane team, in Michigan. His last outing, against the Pittsburgh Pirates, was less successful, allowing 10 hits and three earned runs in 5.2 innings. In that two-game span, Nolasco struck out a combined 15 batters, showing that, whether he bleeds runs or not, he can impose his will on starting lineups. If the Red Sox can get their bats on the ball, though, it should be an early night for Nolasco.

May 26th @ 8:10 PM ET;

• Clay Buchholz (2-5, 4.58 ERA) vs. Mike Pelfrey (3-1, 3.00 ERA)
• In his last three starts, Buchholz is 1-1, allowing a combined six runs. Each game saw the Red Sox in the fray, but the team’s offense came up short of helping their starting pitcher to victory. All three games saw Buchholz go deep into the frames, playing a combined 21.2 out of a possible 27 innings. That’s the kind of performance that people expected from him; now, it’s time for the bats to do their job to support him.
• Pelfrey, a right-hander, is much stronger at home (2.35 ERA) than away (3.34 ERA). Other than the pounding that he took in Detroit, allowing four runs on 10 hits in 4.2 innings, Pelfrey has been consistent. He has never given up more than two runs in the other six of the last seven games, including blanking the AL Central leaders, the Royals. Not a big strikeout total per game, but Pelfrey’s hit total is also down. Look for balls to be in play for the Red Sox, and let’s see if the defense holds them or not.

May 27th @ 1:10 PM ET;

• Rick Porcello (4-3, 5.07 ERA) vs. Phil Hughes (3-4, 4.50 ERA)
• What should we say? Porcello was dominating in his last four starts, earning three out of four wins, before his last game against the L.A. Angels. In this last start, Porcello allowed seven earned runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings of work. Granted, the defense could have been better, that night; however, Porcello could have recovered and not let it get to him. Your guess is as good as anybody’s which Porcello we will see, tonight.
• Hughes is no stranger to the Red Sox, with most of his career spent playing with the New York Yankees. No real home-field advantage for Hughes, as the righty has a 5.11 ERA at Target Field, this season. However, Hughes has had back-to-back strong starts, recently, allowing only a combined four runs and pitched into the eighth innings. Again, not a strong strikeout total, as he has not relied on it to get the job done. Meanwhile, his hit totals verge on double digits in most of his appearances. Again, the defense will be key in this game.

May 23, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox first baseman

(12) is greeted at the dugout by third baseman

(48) after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the second inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Red Sox’ Key Players To Watch:

• First baseman Mike Napoli went nuclear on Angels’ pitching, in the last two games, hitting three home runs and seven RBIs. With a .429 batting average, five home runs, and 10 RBIs in the last seven games, Napoli is the hottest thing in Boston. But, that was in Boston. His hot streak only brought his season batting average to .203 last night, with a .149 average for away games. Has the real Napoli arrived for the Red Sox, or were the last few days a flash in the pan?

• Shortstop Xander Bogaerts can relate to Napoli’s success. Bogaerts went 4-for-4 at the plate, yesterday, with a home run and three RBIs in his last seven games. He leads the team with a .455 batting average in that stretch, but he has only .290 for the season. Sadly, that average still leads all of the starters on the team. In Bogaerts’ case, if you told him that he would be hitting this well before the season started, he would have been a very happy man, considering his dismal .240 average in 2014. Let’s see if he can improve on an already more successful campaign.

• Right fielder Rusney Castillo is not on this list because of his excellent play. In fact, he has only earned a hit three times in 12 at-bats, with no big displays of power or RBI potential, since being called up from Triple-A. He was brought up to replace veteran Shane Victorino, while he is out injured; yet, Castillo makes some big money, himself. The Red Sox are expected to pay $60.4 million until 2020 for Castillo’s services. It’s only been a few games, and the man needs time to adjust to big-league pitching, but the Red Sox will expect an immediate return on their investment, if they sit or trade Victorino for playing Castillo. The time is now for Castillo to show why there was so much hype for him, before the season started.

May 23, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter

(34) picks up relief pitcher

(19) after the Boston Red Sox beat the Los Angeles Angels 8-3 at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions:

• Game One Winner – Boston Red Sox, as Kelly will out-duel his counterpart.

• Game Two Winner – Minnesota Twins, as Buchholz will not get the run support he needs to win the game.

• Game Three Winner – Boston Red Sox, as the bats will remind Hughes of his earlier games this season, being hit around the ballpark.

If the pitching staff can keep Hunter contained, the Red Sox could win all three games. Much of the predictions rely on run support. The Red Sox have been doing that in the last two games, but it has mainly been Napoli’s bat that has done any damage. The potential is there; however, we’ve been saying that for most of this season, already. The Twins have powerful bats, which can be controlled if pitches force them low, to ground out or strike out. Hopefully, for the Red Sox’ sake, the same will not happen to their batting lineup.

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