Red Sox Series Preview: @ Seattle Mariners

Apr 29, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher

(right) and second baseman

(left) joke around during the game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox continue their West Coast road trip, as they play the Seattle Mariners in a four-game series.

The Red Sox (16-18) sit in fourth place in the American League East division, while the Mariners (15-18) are in the middle of the AL West pack. After taking two of three games from the Oakland Athletics, the Red Sox have improved their away record to .500 (9-9), and will be looking to continue that trend in Seattle. The Mariners are 5-5 in their last 10 games, but have a winning record at home (9-8), this season.

By all accounts, it looks to be a close series, one that either team could win. Let’s look at the tale of the tape:

**All statistical information is from MLB.com

May 11, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher

(22) pitches during the first inning against Boston Red Sox at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

Pitching Matchups @ Mariners (Safeco Field):

May 14th @ 10:10 PM ET

• Joe Kelly (1-2, 6.35 ERA) vs. Roenis Elias (0-1, 3.86 ERA)
• Elias is one of three lefty pitchers whom Boston will compete against in Seattle. In three starts Elias has struck out 19 opposing batters to walking 7, allowing 8 runs on 18 hits. While he has not given up more than 3 runs in any start, Elias has not had the run support to earn his first win with Seattle.
• Kelly has been suffering in his last 4 starts, allowing 21 runs. If Kelly has another game like that, Elias should have enough run support, finally, to earn his first win.

May 15th @ 10:10 PM ET

• Clay Buchholz (2-4, 5.73 ERA) vs. J.A. Happ (3-1, 3.29 ERA)
• The former Toronto Blue Jays lefty is no stranger to Boston. Happ’s consistency, except for the 6-run game against the Houston Astros, has been even better than last season, when he went 11-11 with a 4.22 ERA. Happ would flip-flop from good starts to bad starts. This season, in 5 of his last 6 starts, Happ has not allowed more than 2 runs in a game, pitching an average of 7 innings in a start.
• Buchholz does not show any of that same consistency. He has reached the sixth and seventh innings multiple times, but he has also been pulled in the third and fourth innings multiple times, as well. In his last game, Buchholz recorded the win, but also gave up 3 runs on 7 hits. Not terrible, but not dominating, especially for a supposed ‘ace’, if we should even use the term, anymore.

May 16th @ 9:10 PM ET

• Rick Porcello (3-2, 4.50 ERA) vs. Felix Hernandez (6-0, 1.85 ERA)
• He’s King Felix for a reason. He had a complete-game shutout over the Minnesota Twins at the end of April. He has 50 strikeouts, to only 8 walks, in his last 10 appearances. The Red Sox will be in tough against one of the best and most dominating pitchers in our lifetime. He will also be the only righty pitcher whom the Red Sox will face in this series.
• Porcello’s last three starts have shown signs of turning the corner to greater success. He allowed only 1 run against the Blue Jays, he shut out the Tampa Bay Rays, and he held the Athletics to 3 runs in 5 innings, keeping his team in each of those games while earning 2 wins and a no-decision.

May 17th @ 4:10 PM ET

• TBD vs. James Paxton (1-2, 4.31 ERA)
• Red Sox pitcher Justin Masterson will miss this scheduled start, while being placed on the disabled list with what is being called arm fatigue.
• Yet another lefty, Paxton has taken his Canadian arm fairly deep into games 5 times out of his last 7 starts. Paxton has allowed only 4 runs in his last three starts, including a blank against the San Diego Padres in 6 innings. His ERA ballooned in mid-April, against the Texas Rangers, giving up 7 runs on 10 hits; however, it looks like that disaster could be behind him.

May 9, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners right fielder

(23) gets a hit in the fifth inning, scoring two runs on an error by the Oakland Athletics at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Mariners Key Players To Watch:

• Outfielder Nelson Cruz is the big man on offense to watch for in Seattle’s lineup. He leads the team in batting average (.346), RBIs (29), and home runs (15). Cruz has 30 strikeouts, as often big hitters have high totals in that category, but catcher Mike Zunino has 10 more than him to lead the team. With a .397 on-base percentage and a .738 slugging percentage, Cruz swings a mighty bat but he’s all about getting on base and helping his team win. However, all of the named Red Sox starters are right-handed. Cruz is significantly weaker, this season, against righty pitching (.296 to .591) in Seattle (.313 to .381 for away games). To say, though, that those numbers mean that he won’t have any success is a fool’s dream. Expect Cruz to punish Red Sox pitching, if they make a mistake against him.

• Third baseman Kyle Seager has 2 home runs and 7 RBIs in his last 10 games. The lefty bat could pose a challenge to the righty pitchers, but Seager has not shown evidence that it matters what hand a pitcher uses. He has been consistent, if not glowing like the star that Cruz has become.

• Second baseman, and former New York Yankees All-Star, Robinson Cano is also no stranger to Boston. With only a single home run and 11 RBIs for the season, so far, Cano does not look like the mighty giant that he once was, when he played with the Red Sox’ arch rivals. However, his .303 batting average against right-handed pitching, his .328 average in home games, and the fact that he gets to play his one-time enemies again may perk his interest and his bat.

May 11, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher

(19) pitches during the ninth inning against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions: 

• Game One Winner – Seattle Mariners, as you should expect Kelly to struggle, once again. However, it should be close.

• Game Two Winner –  Boston Red Sox. Happ will remember his time in Toronto, as his former Blue Jays manager John Farrell sits across from him in the other dugout, plotting a win.

• Game Three Winner – Boston Red Sox. There are no delusions, here, that Hernandez will lose this game for the Mariners. If the Red Sox win, it will be because of the bullpens, possibly extra innings. That relies on Porcello being able to keep Boston in the game, close, so they can make a comeback victory.

• Game Four Winner – Boston Red Sox. Not that Paxton cannot win the game, but it will depend on who fills in for Masterson. If the game is close, Boston should get just enough run support.

These predictions will rely on the amount of run support that the Mariners give their starters. From the look of things, either Nelson Cruz has to defeat the Red Sox, single-handed, or the Red Sox could squeak out a series victory.

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