Red Sox vs the AL East: starting pitching
Sep 20, 2014; Bronx, NY, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marcus Stroman (54) pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
5. Toronto Blue Jays
This rotation consists of a pair of former star pitchers in Dickey and Buehrle and a pair of former top prospects in Stroman and Hutchison, but it still likely has the lowest floor and the lowest ceiling of any rotation in the division. Dickey (14-13, 3.71 ERA last season) and Buehrle (13-10, 3.39 ERA last season) are no longer the studs they once were, but they’re not the problem with this rotation. Those two are still a pair of solid mid-rotation starters and that’s really all you can expect from two pitchers over 35. The real problems with this rotation is its lack of upside and depth.
Don’t get me wrong, Stroman isn’t the issue here either as the 23-year old profiles as an elite arm for the future and is coming off a rookie season which saw him post a 3.65 ERA (with a 2.84 FIP suggesting he was even better than his results) in 26 games (20 starts). Behind its front three, however, in which two of whom don’t even really belong in the front half of a contending team’s rotation, this pitching staff has no sure things. Hutchison was better than his 4.48 ERA made him out to be last season (his FIP was 3.85 and he had a K/BB over 3), but Estrada was even worse than his 4.36 ERA would indicate, as his FIP was 4.88 in Milwaukee last season.
In case of injuries, the Blue Jays do have top prospect Daniel Norris, who had a fantastic season across the three highest levels of the minors last year and could be ready to pitch in early in the 2015 season. However, it will take a few lucky breaks for the Blue Jays to even have an average rotation next season and more than likely, they’ll fall below that mark.
Sep 23, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (11) pitches during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
4. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have completed revamped their rotation since the start of the 2014 season, with Buchholz the only remaining member of last season’s opening rotation. And while Boston has certainly lost a bunch of talent after trading away Jon Lester and John Lackey at the deadline last season, general manager Ben Cherington has done a good job of adding depth to the rotation and potentially giving the team a high-upside starting five.
The major ding on this rotation has been its lack of a true ace and while that may be true, the Red Sox have a handful of guys that have pitched like aces at times during their careers. Buchholz (8-11, 5.34 ERA) is coming off a terrible season, but his 4.01 FIP suggests that he wasn’t nearly that bad; plus, Buchholz has pitched like an ace multiple times over the course of his career, with his main issue simply keeping away from the disabled list. If he is able to stay healthy, the Red Sox might already have their man. However, the Red Sox also have plenty of upside in the middle and back of their rotation as well, with Porcello (15-13, 3.43 ERA) coming off a season where he finally put it all together at the age of 25. Masterson was hurt last season, but he had a 3.45 ERA and over a strikeout per inning just a season before and is just 29 years old. Similarly, Kelly (6-4, 4.20 ERA) and Miley (8-12, 4.34 ERA) are both young and have shown the potential to be solid pitchers at the major league level.
This rotation has a ton of questions, but it certainly has upside and the Red Sox have the prospect depth to patch some holes if need be, sliding this group ahead of Toronto.
Jun 28, 2014; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (19) delivers a pitch during the ninth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. Boston Red Sox won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
3. New York Yankees
The Yankees’ rotation is a textbook example of a high-risk, high-reward rotation. This starting five has unquestionable upside, between 2014 standouts in Tanaka and Pineda, a former ace in Sabathia, and a hard-throwing youngster in Eovaldi. However, between injury concerns and a lack of depth, there are certainly reasons to be wary of New York’s rotation.
After all, each of the first three pitchers in this rotation missed significant time last season. Tanaka’s partially torn UCL, which caused him to miss 12 starts and suggests that he’ll likely need to undergo Tommy John Surgery in the near future, is the most likely to re-appear. However, it’s still worth mentioning that Pineda and Sabathia only pitched in 21 combined games last season and that the 34-year old Sabathia, despite solid peripherals, hasn’t been effective since 2012. In addition, despite great peripherals throughout his career, Eovaldi’s ERA has only been better than the league average once in the last three years (though he will be just 25 years old for the upcoming season).
This rotation has a huge ceiling, with potentially four well-above average pitchers, plus Capuano (3-4, 4.35 ERA), who wasn’t awful last season. However, the Yankees will need to count on good health, as they have little in the way of prospect depth, and a bounce back year from Sabathia in order to cash in on their potential.
Oct 10, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Chris Tillman (30) pitches in the first inning in game one of the 2014 ALCS playoff against the Kansas City Royals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports
2. Baltimore Orioles
While this Orioles rotation may lack a true ace, the Baltimore front office has built their rotation out of strong mid-rotation workhorses and it profiles to be a solid group. Tillman (13-6, 3.34 ERA) will serve as the top starter in this starting five, but he’s hardly head and shoulders above the rest of this group. The Taiwanese-born Chen (16-7, 3.54 ERA) broke out with the best season of his career last year and Gausman (7-7, 3.57 ERA) also had a breakout year at the age of 23. Gonzalez (10-9, 3.23 ERA) has consistently outperformed his peripherals and posted solid results and Norris (15-8, 3.65 ERA) certainly profiles as a strong back-of-the-rotation starter.
This group doesn’t have any big-time starter that they could throw out during a must-win game. However, between Baltimore’s lineup and the solid, if unspectacular, rotation, they might not need one. Barring major injuries, this rotation probably has the highest floor of any in this division.
Sep 23, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Alex Cobb (53) pitches during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
1. Tampa Bay Rays
Even after trading David Price to the Tigers at the deadline, Tampa Bay’s tradition of strong young pitching will persist into 2015. After an excellent pair of seasons, the 27-year old Cobb (10-9, 2.87 ERA) is looking like one of the best young pitchers in baseball and 26-year old Archer (10-9, 3.33 ERA) isn’t too far behind. Behind those two, the pair of Smyly (9-10, 3.24 ERA), whom they acquired in the Price deal, and Odorizzi (11-13, 4.13 ERA) gives them an incredibly capable front four in their rotation.
There’s a bit of debate over who will serve as the fifth starter in the rotation until Matt Moore (17-4, 3.29 ERA in 2013) is ready to return from Tommy John Surgery, but Colome (7-6, 3.77 ERA in Triple-A Durham) is likely the top candidate to take the job. Once Moore returns, however, he’ll give Tampa Bay another excellent young option in their deep, talented rotation.
Due to the depth, youth, and overall talent in this pitching staff, the Rays have both the highest floor and the highest ceiling of any rotation in the AL East this season.