Cole Hamels and the remaining pitching options
In one has been a staggering off-season, the Red Sox have been among the biggest movers and shakers around the league.
And yet, they still find themselves without the “ace” pitcher that everyone has been waiting on after Jon Lester, John Lackey, Felix Doubront and Jake Peavy were shipped out in 2014.
But the root of the problems with the 2014 team were offensive, and the team has addressed those woes in a big way. Along with the mid-season addition of Rusney Castillo, the team brought in two more big name bats before the Winter Meetings began in Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. With a bounce back season from Mike Napoli and hopefully breakout years from Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, the team will be presenting one of the most high powered offenses in the American League.
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Once the Winter Meetings rolled around, it became time to turn to pitching. The big fish was Lester, but after all the hoopla had subsided he was wearing a Cubs hat. As Red Sox Nation recoiled from the shock of the (second) loss of one of the most memorable Boston athletes of the last decade, Ben Cherington quickly reacted by bringing in three mid rotation arms in Wade Miley, Justin Masterson and Rick Porcello. But none of those players was an ace last year, and likely will not be this year.
Some have brought up the question of whether the Red Sox need that workhorse number one starter, a fair question to ponder. But for a team with World Series aspirations, there are many question marks as highlighted by the recently released Steamer projections. Fans know how unreliable Clay Buchholz is, and they will be counting on a return to form for Masterson, and a pretty big step forward from Miley, Kelly and Porcello. Porcello may make that leap, but it remains to be seen if Kelly and Miley can step up.
Fortunately the team has other options. Here are a few ways that the team can build up their pitching a little more to make that World Series dream come true.
Trade for Cole Hamels
Sep 28, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels (35) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Long connected in trade rumors with the Red Sox, the former World Series MVP and current Phillies ace would look mighty fine as a Lester replacement. The similarities between the two pitchers are notable, and other than some concerns about his transition to the American League he seems like a terrific fit in Boston given his success in the regular season and playoffs, his clean bill of health and a contract that is big but cheaper than Lester and equal to what 33 year old James Shields is seeking.
If Cole Hamels doesn’t require the Red Sox to pick up his 5th year option (full disclosure: he almost certainly will), then he will be cheaper and two years younger than Shields. But impeding this match is general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and his insistence that Boston include either Betts or Blake Swihart. The two star prospects are supposedly untouchable so it is possible that a Hamels to the Red Sox deal may never get done.
But it is also possible Philadelphia will lower their demands. Aside from a rumored interest from the Padres, it has been mostly quiet on the Hamels front this winter. If Amaro does lower his asking price, Boston is in the best position to help replenish a questionable Philly farm system.
Trade for Jordan Zimmermann
Oct 4, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) is taken out of the game in the ninth inning against the San Francisco Giants in game two of the 2014 NLDS playoff baseball game at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
A slightly cheaper trade acquisition may be longtime Nationals front man Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann is entering a walk year and on a Nationals team stacked with talent, there may not be room for him beyond this year. Washington has a stacked rotation already and stud prospect Lucas Giolito knocking at the door of the Major League roster. It seems likely Washington will move a pitcher,and Boston has young players or veterans to offer the Nationals.
Zimmermann is a little riskier given that he can leave at the end of the year, but at 28 he is three years younger than Lester and it is possible that the Red Sox would be more willing to offer him a long term deal. But it is also possible that the Nationals, who will be a playoff team next year, will hold onto their ace even if it means losing him.
If he can be had, Zimmermann may be the best candidate for the Red Sox to trade for. He is young and talented and doesn’t carry an enormous price tag in a trade, but for these reasons he also may end up staying in Washington.
Sign James Shields
Oct 26, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning during game five of the 2014 World Series at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Do the Red Sox have one more long contract to hand out? Unlike Max Scherzer, James Shields won’t cost $200 million, but the 33 year old is looking for five years and $110 million. Unlike Jon Heyman, I don’t see the Red Sox as being a suitor for Scherzer, but Shields would be a good fit. The veteran would be able to lead and anchor a young rotation, and has been a consistent force for four years now. Shields also has somehow manage to increase his velocity as he has aged.
Gabe Kapler gave him a sparkling stamp of approval, but Shields also does not come without his question marks. His lack of playoff success is the most glaring, but it is also a daunting prospect to carry a pitcher through his age 38 season at more than $20 million. He has yet to show any signs of wearing down yet, but the track record for 35+ year old pitchers is not excellent.
If he will settle for the four year, $88 million deal HanRam got he is a great option, and he will not cost us any of our heralded prospects. Should we sacrifice financial flexibility in order to keep our prospects?
Strengthen the Bullpen
Sep 28, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Casey Janssen (44) throws a pitch during the ninth inning in a game against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. The Baltimore Orioles won 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
This is by far the least flashy option but according to Ben Cherington is the most likely. While it may concern many fans to go with what we have assembled currently, the best way to bolster our current rotation is by building a strong bullpen and fielding a great defense (which we should). Casey Janssen would provide high leverage support at the back of the bullpen, but it also would definitely help to bring back a reliable name like Burke Badenhop.
What the team really probably could have benefitted from was a reunion with Andrew Miller, but the deal the Yankees gave him seems exorbitant. It is risky to give relievers four years in general, but they also could have turned to a name like Zach Duke who only signed to a three year deal. There are few lefty relief options remaining at this point, but it is also possible they could turn to their younger pitchers.
A trade is another possibility, and if the team does intend to take this rotation into 2015 then a trade for a good left hander would be a great way to cap an exciting offseason. And this option doesn’t preclude them from adding a name like Hamels, Zimmermann or Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline.