That is obviously not a picture of Rafael Devers. That is a bad, bad man in the picture, but one who is getting older. As hard as it is to fathom, David Ortiz will soon need a replacement.
There is a power outage plaguing major league baseball. Power hitters are at a premium as pitchers have become increasingly dominant and the league has put the crackdown on PED users. The league average slugging percentage in MLB last year was .396, the lowest number since 1992.
This number has generally been trending downward since the mid-2000’s (The Mitchell Report was released in 2007). The result has been some questionable contracts as teams try to combat this trend, the most recent being Nelson Cruz’s four year, $58 million, after his career year at age 34 in a park that was favorable to him. Safeco Field in Seattle will not be so kind.
The Red Sox have seen this power outage; but have also been sheltered by the presence of David Ortiz (and Mike Napoli in 2013, who earned a contract with a $16 million AAV, after providing the Red Sox with that right handed pop they needed behind Ortiz for their playoff run). But Ortiz is entering his age 39 season, and the list of productive 40 year old baseball players is very short, particularly power hitters. His never having played the field may allow him to age better than his counterparts, but the Red Sox should not count on that.
More from BoSox Injection
- Red Sox Nation deserves far more from Fenway Sports Group
- Bizarre trade deadline comes back to haunt Red Sox after Nathan Eovaldi departure
- Red Sox’ Moneyball-style offseason continues with Corey Kluber contract
- Rich Hill’s Red Sox departure puts him within striking distance of unique MLB record
- Red Sox offseason takes another nasty hit with Nathan Eovaldi departure
Enter 18 year old phenom left handed hitter Rafael Devers. The Red Sox for years have maintained a system that reflects their organizational philosophy, stockpiling players with great hit-tools who will translate into high-OBP players. Devers is the antithesis of this with a skill-set built around hitting dingers. The Red Sox acquired him as one of the headline names in the 2013 International Signing Period, and he rewarded their investment this past season.
In his first taste of professional baseball, the Dominican Summer League (DSL), Devers was a man among boys. In 28 games, he hit .337/.445/.538, knocking in 21 RBI, and knocking 12 of his 35 total hits for extra bases. He was advanced to the Gulf Coast League (GCL), and saw little drop-off in production. In a league where he was two years younger than the average player, he triple slashed .312/.374/.484, and added 36 RBI and two more HRs, bringing his Rookie Ball totals to 57 and 7 respectfully in just 70 professional games.
He soared up prospect lists, going from a sleeper pick to a bona fide centerpiece prospect. SoxProspects.com has him ranked all the way up at fourth, behind only Blake Swihart, Henry Owens and Manuel Margot. The SoxProspect scouting report can be seen here, and it describes him as having above average power already with plus-to-better potential. Devers will be closely monitored this winter after suffering a stress fracture in his foot, during the first week of the Fall Instructional League.
Baseball America's Top 20 GCL prospects, led by Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers in the No. 1 spot: http://t.co/wcu3ZM7Ubb
— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) September 24, 2014
Other prospect lists outside of the region have him ranked slightly more conservatively, but based on sample size, not potential. If he continues to rake as he ages and reaches advanced levels, the Red Sox will once again have a prospect ascending Top 100 lists. One question surrounding Devers is his future position. While his offensive abilities profile as a middle of the order hitter, his defensive abilities lag. He doesn’t have great footspeed and there is little to suggest he has the instincts to make up for it.
Unless he develops those instincts, it will be hard to see him stick at 3B, with a move to 1B or LF more likely. Devers is still quite young, and even if he makes Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts like strides (don’t discount this possibility…), he is a few years away. This is not a question the Red Sox need to answer any time soon, and like their glut of outfielders and young pitching, this kind of surplus is a problem teams want to have.