Cole Hamels is a great pitcher. Since breaking into the Major Leagues in 2006, he has consistently been among the best left-handed starters in baseball and, at 30 years old, he still has plenty of good years left in him. Hamels has a career 3.27 ERA, 8.5 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 in his illustrious nine-year career, spent entirely in Philadelphia, and had the lowest ERA of his career in 2014. Despite all those positive qualities, however, there are numerous reasons why it would be a mistake to acquire Hamels this offseason.
First and foremost among those concerns is the cost, both in terms of money and prospects. Unlike most available pitchers on the open market, Hamels would not only cost a boatload of prospects, being the ace of the Phillies, but he also has 4 years and $90M left on the 7 year/$153M contract he signed before 2012, plus a potential $20M vesting option for 2019 that could bring the total remaining value on his contract to 5 years at $110M.
That’s a lot of money, but that contract does only run through Hamels’ age 35 season at worst (if his 2019 option vests), so it’s not unmanageable when compared to the contracts that free agents Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields are likely to receive. No, the real issue with acquiring Hamels is the haul of prospects.
For a pitcher of Hamels’ caliber, the Red Sox would be forced to create a package including both quantity and quality of prospects to swing a trade. It’s unlikely that the Red Sox would be able to create an acceptable package without including either Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart, both of whom look to be stars in the league sooner rather than later.
With plenty of room on the payroll and a deep farm system, the Red Sox would be best served to either sign a free agent starter and/or trade for a pitcher that wouldn’t require such a huge return. However, it would be unwise to spend both money and prospects for a pitcher that is unlikely to be significantly better, if better at all, than Scherzer or Lester.
In addition, Hamels, who has spent his entire career with the Phillies, has minimal experience in the American League and may experience some regression in the hard-hitting AL East. All things considered, it just seems like a bad idea to give away potentially the most talented youngsters in the organization and spend a huge amount of money to bring an aging career National Leaguer to the Red Sox, even as good as Hamels may be.