Predicting the next Red Sox MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year
Don’t get me wrong: I’ll take that big hunk of metal with the flags over individual trophies any day. But it’s curious that despite three World Series titles in the post-Bambino era, the Red Sox have had just one major award winner: Dustin Pedroia, the 2007 Rookie of the Year and 2008 MVP.
The Sox have had a small handful of other viable candidates over the past decade, more so in some awards than others. On Monday, the indefatigable Brock Holt received one third-place vote for rookie of the year; Pete Abraham pointed out that he is the first Sox player to receive any ROY votes since Jacoby Ellsbury in ’08. Since Pedro Martinez won back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 1999 and 2000 with two of the most impressive pitching campaigns of the Steroid Era, the only Red Sox pitcher not named Pedro to receive a first place vote was Josh Beckett in ’07. Given the anti-DH bias that has handicapped David Ortiz’ MVP chances, 2011 Jacoby Ellsbury had the best shot to win MVP, but finished second behind pitching triple crown winner Justin Verlander.
One could write a 100-page dissertation analyzing the politics of voting in the writers’ association, attempting to determine the deservingness of past winners and losers. But it’s more exciting to look forward and try and predict the next Sox players to win each of the three major awards.
Rookie of the Year: Rusney Castillo
This is easily the hardest award to predict, as minor league performance never translates perfectly to the major league level. Until June 1, Xander Bogaerts was a bona fide rookie of the year candidate, meriting a place in the conversation with Jose Abreu. Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson—the list of major league disappointments goes on. Will Rusney Castillo be any different? As a seasoned professional from Cuba, the 27-year-old certainly fits the mold of two other 27-year olds to win Rookie of the Year this century: Abreu and Ichiro Suzuki. He isn’t projected at the same level as those guys, but Rusney showed flashes of talent in a very small sample size last year with the Sox: .333 with two homers and three steals in 10 games. In 2015, he has the potential to be a 20/20 guy and a .280-.300 hitter, which would unquestionably put him in the ROY discussion.
He has the best chance of any Sox prospect that will break into the big leagues in the next two years. Blake Swihart will be competing for time with Christian Vasquez. Garin Cecchini doesn’t have the upside. And with the Sox’ recent record of disappointing performances from highly touted pitching prospects, I hesitate to go with Henry Owens. There’s a 100-ton weight of hype on Castillo’s back, but he has the tools to live up to the expectations.
Other candidates down the road: Manuel Margot, Rafael Devers, Michael Chavis
I want to go with Jon Lester here. I really do. But there’s still far too much uncertainty about his return, and even his durable arm likely only has a couple of MVP caliber years left in it. So I’ll go with the upside guy, and Rodriguez gets the bump over Henry Owens. Despite a shaky first half in the Orioles farm system, he dominated in Portland after being acquired in the Andrew Miller trade. In six starts, he had a 0.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 9.40 K/9 ratio. His fastball has slightly more velocity than Owens’, according to soxprospects.com, sitting in the low 90s and touching 97, and he mixes in an improving slider and changeup. Given his inconsistency, this is a reach pick, but nobody predicted Dustin Pedroia as an MVP either. Why not Eduardo for Cy Young?
Other candidates: Chris Sale (with the help of some Ben Cherington magic), Henry Owens (same exceeding expectations logic as Rodriguez), Jon Lester (my fingers hurt from being crossed for the last six months)
MVP: Giancarlo Stanton
The Marlins can talk all they want about their commitment to resigning Stanton, but I’ve learned not to trust any reports that involve Jeffrey Loria spending money wisely on his team. It may not happen this year, but the Sox have the prospect depth to get a deal done. It may require trading away Mookie after a Rookie of the Year performance, but it would be worth it to acquire one of the few terrifying power threats of the post-Steroid era. Picture 50+ shots a year over the Monster. Stanton has a shot to win his first MVP this year, depending on the writers’ willingness to give Clayton Kershaw the Cy Young and MVP, and he’s only 24. That’s a lot of MVP caliber years left.
On the current roster, Mookie could continue his expectation-exceeding rampage and morph into an MVP, Dustin Pedroia style. And Pedroia himself, reportedly healthy for the first time in years, could regain his MVP form. But otherwise, there are no obvious candidates for MVP in the next three-five years. Maybe Christian Vazquez will morph into Pudge Rodriguez, or Blake Swihart into Buster Posey? If the Sox can get Stanton through that door, they will have the closest thing to a perennial MVP candidate since Ted Williams. Hyperbole? Maybe. But a little optimism doesn’t hurt with this team right now.