2015 Red Sox starting pitching rotation predictions
Sep 14, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Joe Kelly (center) talks with pitching coach Juan Nieves (right) during the game against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
The Red Sox finished 23rd in baseball in team ERA in 2014, largely due to an inconsistent starting rotation. The problems started early for Clay Buchholz, Jake Peavy and Felix Doubront and compounded with the trades of Jon Lester and John Lackey.
A number of prospects took the hill for the Sox in the second half, as well as Joe Kelly, acquired in the Lackey trade. None really separated themselves from the pack and, with the team looking to climb back into contention in 2015, it seems free agent signings or trades for pitchers are imminent.
We asked the BSI staff: who do you have in the Boston Red Sox starting rotation for 2015?
Sep 14, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Jon Lester (31) pitches to the Seattle Mariners during the second inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Lester – Kelly – Brandon McCarthy – Buchholz – Allen Webster
Lester should be the focus of GM Ben Cherington’s offseason work and the Fenway Group’s $60 million war chest. Stop the posturing and negotiating, give him a market level offer and bring him back to head the rotation.
Kelly was the real focus of that deal with the Cardinals. Whoever’s idea it was to include that minimum clause in Lackey’s contract was a genius. It brought Kelly, his 98 mph fastball and grit to Fenway. Get a better team behind him and he wins 15 games.
McCarthy looked like a desperation move by the Yankees at the trade deadline last year (and all they gave up was Vidal Nuno to Arizona; no wonder they cleaned house). All he did was throw up a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts, many with that short right field porch for lefties to shoot at in the Bronx. Bring him in, Ben.
Buchholz needs an injury-free season. Get his mechanics where they need to be. Keep him healthy. Watch him produce.
Webster posted a 2.63 ERA in his last four starts of the season, and two of those teams (Royals and Orioles) went to the playoffs. Get his head right and tell him he is on the team out of Spring Training.
Rubby De La Rosa seems better suited with his electric fastball
and Pedro-taught change-up in the bullpen, where he only has to go
through lineups once. Could also be the #5, depending on which way
they want to build the ‘pen.
Sep 17, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels (35) pitches during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Cole Hamels – McCarthy – Buchholz – Kelly – Anthony Ranaudo
Hamels, not Lester, will be the lefty ace at the front of the Sox rotation. The Phillies have expressed significant interest in Mookie Betts and would likely accept a package that centers on Mookie and a couple hurlers from the Red Sox army of young guns (Eduardo Rodriguez, De La Rosa, Webster, Matt Barnes). Hamels has only four years and $90 million left on his contract, a shorter-term commitment than Lester, and he’s two years younger than James Shields.
McCarthy will be an affordable two or three-year option, given his injury history, and he’s proven that he can pitch in the American League. His best full seasons were with the A’s in 2011 and 2012, and he had a 2.89 ERA with the Yankees last season after struggling in the first half with Arizona.
The mercurial Buchholz is a lock for the rotation next year, as is Kelly, a legitimate middle-to-back of the rotation guy with the potential to be more. That leaves one spot for a young arm, which I believe will go to Ranaudo, the International League Pitcher of the Year, who has the best combination of upside and MLB-readiness of the young guys.
Oct 21, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning during game one of the 2014 World Series at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
Shields – Francisco Liriano – Buchholz – Kelly – De La Rosa
“Big Game” James may have had a subpar World Series for Kansas City in 2014, but I’ve been a fan of Shields since his early days in Tampa Bay. His ability to eat innings and his experience pitching in the AL East, I think, would make for a great signing by Ben Cherington. Shields is a great alternative to more expensive options like Max Scherzer and Lester.
Liriano would surely be a very risky signing for Cherington and company, but given the way I have the rest of the rotation shaping up, a lefty will be needed in the rotation. Liriano’s injury history and the fact that he’s pitched in significantly smaller markets than Boston (Minnesota and Pittsburgh) worry me. Liriano did have a fantastic season as recently as 2013 and given his drop-off last season, he may be one of the cheaper options.
The inconsistency and injury troubles for Buchholz have been very frustrating and there is no way he should be higher than a number three starter at this point in his career.
Still a youngster at 26, Kelly showed definite glimpses of being a valuable member of the Sox rotation during the second half of the 2014 season. Kelly also has playoff and World Series experience, which could prove valuable should the Sox make a return to the postseason in 2015.
De La Rosa was one of the prize prospects during the monumental Sox/Dodgers trade involving Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and friends. He also showed some signs of being a solid Major League starter a season ago and his potential warrants him a spot in the starting rotation next season.
Sep 6, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) pitches during the first inning against the New York Mets at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
Lester – Ervin Santana – Johnny Cueto – Buchholz – Kelly.
The set pieces are Kelly and the enigmatic Buchholz. Buchholz has certainly got “the stuff” to be a top of the line rotation guy and has shown that, periodically. My assumption is the Red Sox will hold on to Buchholz.
Kelly is certainly a middle of the rotation guy.
The trial runs of various starters during the summer was like eating saltines while someone else has rib eye. None left a feeling of confidence. So that means free agency and trades.
I would attempt to get Lester with Shields and Santana as fall backs. The other possibility is a trade for Cueto.
The Red Sox will also import the usual mix of pitchers who are looking for opportunity after varying degrees of success at the MLB level. A “toss it against the wall and see if it sticks” approach.