Red Sox Armchair GM: Conor’s take

Jul 12, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia (15) walks to the dugout after striking out during the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Richardson-USA TODAY Sports

Following one of the worst seasons a defending World Series champion has ever had, the Red Sox will have their work cut out for them this offseason. In the beginning of the year, the offense was the problem as the Red Sox were experiencing anemic production throughout their order on account of down years by Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli, and David Ortiz and the absence of 2013 stars Jacoby Ellsbury and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. While they’ve largely fixed the lineup, however– as they acquired Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig, and Rusney Castillo down the stretch– there’s still plenty of work to be done this offseason. The starting pitching is the area which needs the most improvement as the Red Sox dealt away four fifths of their Opening Day rotation this season, but there are necessary acquisitions all across the roster.

In my take as the armchair GM of the Red Sox, I will highlight the areas of need for the Red Sox and what I would do to fill the team’s vacancies if I were Boston’s general manager. Without further ado, let’s get started on the offseason to-do list!

Starting Pitching

Oct 26, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning during game five of the 2014 World Series at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

As it stands: 

After trades of Jon Lester (to Oakland), John Lackey (to St. Louis), Jake Peavy (to San Francisco), and Felix Doubront (to Chicago), the Red Sox’ rotation looks very different now than it did at the beginning of the season. Currently, Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly are the only locks to be members of Boston’s rotation in 2015 as, despite the team giving auditions to a number of young pitchers down the stretch, nobody else really separates themselves from the pack.

While the Red Sox have a myriad of young arms that appeared in the Major Leagues this year, including Matt Barnes, Rubby De La Rosa, Anthony Ranaudo, Allen Webster, Brandon Workman, none of them are truly ready to be members of the rotation. Therefore, the Red Sox are left with potentially three places to fill in the rotation entering the offseason. More likely, however, is that the Red Sox will acquire two starting pitchers and orchestrate a spring training competition for the fifth starter role.

Course of action:

The Red Sox need to acquire at least two pitchers through free agency and trades and, with a number of solid arms available, the defining question of this offseason will be who the Red Sox land. The consensus is that the Red Sox will pursue one ace-level pitcher and at least one second-tier, mid-rotation starter and that’s exactly the course of action that I plan to take as Red Sox GM.

1. The biggest move that I would make this offseason would be signing James Shields to a 4 year/$90M contract. Shields, now 32 years old, had yet another solid season as the ace of the American League champion Royals, posting a 3.21 ERA to go with solid peripherals, including a stingy 1.7 BB/9, 3.59 FIP, and an excellent 4.09 K/BB ratio. Due to his age, he will sign a smaller contract than fellow elite free agents Jon Lester and Max Scherzer and, for the cost, will likely prove his worth just as much as those two. Shields isn’t a bona fide ace like Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez, but the Red Sox have had plenty of success without a true ace (as recently as last season) and his consistent production would be a fantastic addition to the front of the Red Sox rotation.

2. Shields gives the Red Sox a front-end arm, but there’s still more to be done in a depleted Red Sox rotation. The Red Sox will need to acquire another mid-rotation starter to compete next season and Brandon McCarthy represents one of the more attractive names on the market. McCarthy, once a top starter for the Oakland A’s, struggled in his first season-and-a-half with the Diamondbacks but he revitalized his career and free agent stock this season after being traded to the Yankees. He posted just a 5.01 ERA in 18 starts for Arizona but he trimmed that to 2.89 in 14 starts for the Yankees and, as an excellent sinker-baller and clubhouse presence, would be a solid choice to pitch from the middle of Boston’s rotation. He could be looking for a multi-year deal after such success in New York and I would not hesitate to give him a 2 year/$15M deal.

The final product: 

After signing Shields and McCarthy, the Red Sox will have a front four of Shields, Buchholz, McCarthy, Kelly, and the fifth spot will be up for grabs. There will be a spring training competition between Matt Barnes, Rubby De La Rosa, Anthony Ranaudo, Allen Webster, and Brandon Workman and I expect that Webster, who trimmed his ERA (8.60 to 5.03) and his BB/9 (5.3 to 4.3) from his first to second season in the Major Leagues, will grab the final spot in the starting five.

This spending spree on starting pitching also means that the Red Sox, who have roughly $70M to spend this offseason, will have about $40M left to spend on other positions.

Relief Pitching

Oct 11, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles relief pitcher Andrew Miller (48) pitches in the seventh inning against the Kansas City Royals in game two of the 2014 ALCS playoff at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports

As it stands: 

Right now, the Red Sox are looking at a bit of a mass exodus in their bullpen. Their core of five top-notch relievers at the beginning of this season– Craig Breslow, Andrew Miller, Edward Mujica, Junichi Tazawa, and Koji Uehara– could be cut down to as few as three pitchers over the course of the offseason as Breslow and Miller (who they traded to the Orioles at the deadline) are free agents, in addition to low-profile addition Burke Badenhop. This leaves the Red Sox with a relatively empty bullpen, filled with only Tazawa, Mujica, Uehara, Tommy Layne, and a bunch of youngsters yet to establish themselves as bullpen stalwarts, including Matt Barnes, Drake Britton, Edwin Escobar, Heath Hembree, and Alex Wilson.

With so little substance in this prospective bullpen, there’s plenty of work to be done to patch up the late innings and, as armchair GM, let me enlighten you to my plans.

Course of action: 

Tazawa, Uehara, and Mujica are the only relievers that could be entrusted with a late-inning role, so my first priority in the bullpen would be to sign somebody that could serve as closer or, considering the cost of bona fide closers, at least a setup man. In addition to the closer or setup man, I’d like to acquire a strong left-handed reliever as Layne is the only lefty that’s a lock for next year’s bullpen.

1. Still, there’s always the chance that the Red Sox could kill two birds with one stone and bring back a familiar face in Andrew Miller. Miller, whom the Red Sox traded to the Orioles on the trade deadline, had a dominant season between the two AL East squads in 2014. Since the Red Sox converted him to the bullpen in 2012, he has ascended the ranks of left-handed relievers and now ranks among the best in baseball after posting a stingy 2.02 ERA and career-best 14.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in a phenomenal 2014 season. He’ll be pricey, likely costing somewhere in the range of 3 years/$24M, but I’d pay up to land such a nasty arm at the back of the bullpen.
2. Sticking with the trend of keeping 2014 relievers in Boston, it wouldn’t hurt to re-sign Burke Badenhop for another season. Acquired from the Brewers in a minor trade last offseason, Badenhop was one of the best arms in the bullpen this season as he posted a career-low 2.29 ERA. He likely can’t be counted on to serve as more than a middle reliever as he struck out just 5.1 per nine this season, which doesn’t play particularly well in high-pressure situations. However, the Red Sox could do a whole lot worse than signing Badenhop to a 1 year/$5M deal and that’s exactly what I’d do to pad the middle innings.

The final product: 

Once the dust settles, the Red Sox will have a bullpen that looks very similar to the ‘pen which started the 2014 season, a bullpen that was very strong before the trade of Miller and collapse of Uehara. Any of Uehara, Miller, Tazawa, or Mujica could serve as closer or the Red Sox could run a closer-by-committee or hot-hand approach in the late innings. Outside of those four, Layne would act as the situational lefty and Badenhop could eat up the middle innings, leaving one more open space. I’d give that open space to Rubby De La Rosa and see if he can make the shift from the rotation to bullpen, where his dominant stuff would play up and his lack of a third pitch would not hurt him as much.

De La Rosa could serve as the long reliever or develop into a late-inning option, but in any case, the Red Sox will have spent $21M on their bullpen, which leaves approximately $19M to fill the rest of the team counting the $30M spent on starting pitching.

Catching

Jul 20, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Gerald Laird (11) celebrates his single with Atlanta Braves first base coach Terry Pendleton (9) in the second inning of their game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Turner Field. The Braves won 8-2.Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

As it stands:

The Red Sox’ starting catching position underwent a fair amount of turmoil in 2014, starting with A.J. Pierzynski taking over for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who gave the Red Sox excellent production from behind the plate in 2013. Of course, the Pierzynski experiment failed, but all things considered, the catching gig finished in a good place for the Red Sox. Despite some mixed results offensively, Christian Vazquez has firmly cemented himself as the starting catcher for the 2015 season due to his elite defense behind the plate.

Still, backup catcher David Ross’s contract has expired, leaving the Red Sox without a backup catcher. They could go from within, utilizing Dan Butler in that role, but some veteran leadership would be a valuable commodity for a young catcher like Vazquez and that’s what I would seek in a second-string backstop.

Course of action: 

Vazquez is the clear starter behind the plate but I’d seek a reliable veteran backup to teach him the intricacies of the position and perhaps contribute a bit on his own.

1. Nobody on the free agent market would fit that role better than Gerald Laird, the current backup catcher for the Braves who is a free agent this offseason. Laird, now 34 years old, doesn’t offer much with the bat, slashing a meager .204/.275/.257 in 53 games in Atlanta this season. However, he has carved out a niche as a great backup catcher due to his veteran leadership and good defense. He’s not a flashy acquisition but a necessary one and 1 year/$2M would probably get it done.

The final product:

Signing Laird would give the Red Sox a solid catching tandem with Vazquez as the starting catcher. The Red Sox won’t get much offensive production out of the duo as Laird’s OPS was a career-low .532 in 2014 and Vazquez slashed just .240/.308/.309 as a rookie. However, the two should give the team excellent defense behind the plate and, with a potentially thin pitching staff, that could make all the difference.

The Laird signing will give the Red Sox $17M to patch up other holes on the team.

Outfield

Sep 21, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Yoenis Cespedes (52) catches a pop-up by Baltimore Orioles left fielder Alejandro De Aza (not shown) in the third inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

As it stands:

During the early portion of the season, the Red Sox had one of the worst offensive outfields in baseball. However, after acquiring Craig and Yoenis Cespedes at the trade deadline, signing Rusney Castillo to a 7 year/$72M deal out of Cuba, and the emergence of Mookie Betts, the Boston outfield is stacked. Between Yoenis Cespedes, Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo, and Shane Victorino, the Red Sox have four starting-caliber outfielders and even more considering that Holt, Craig, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Daniel Nava are also serviceable outfield options.

Course of action:

Considering their depth, the Red Sox should try and thin out that depth a bit this offseason and that’s just what I’d do as GM, as hard as it may be.

1. While it would remove a great deal of power from their lineup and take away a flashy fan-favorite, dealing Cespedes is the right move from a practical perspective. He only has one more season on his 4/$36M contract and will likely sign a huge contract next winter; however, due to his prodigious power, he still has more trade value than anybody in the outfield not named Mookie Betts. The Red Sox would likely be able to net a solid return of prospects and the Reds come to mind as a team that could be interested in Cespedes’s reputation as a powerful left fielder. It’s not likely that the Red Sox pry dominant pitching prospect Robert Stephenson from the Reds but a package headlined by Michael Lorenzen and/or Jesse Winker could be intriguing to the Red Sox.

The final product: 

Even with Cespedes out of the picture, the Red Sox have the potential to put one of the best outfields in the league out on the field. A trio of Betts, Castillo, and Victorino would be a phenomenal defensive outfield that would inject speed and even some power production into their lineup. In addition to the starters, the Red Sox would also have Daniel Nava on the bench while giving Bradley some additional time to figure out his hitting approach in Triple-A.

That outfield would be a strong component of what is shaping up to be an excellent Red Sox lineup even after subtracting Cespedes.

25-Man Roster

Sep 19, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Boston Red Sox teammates David Ortiz (34) celebrates with Rusney Castillo (38) after their game against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Red Sox won 5-3 in ten inning. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Starting rotation

1. James Shields
2. Clay Buchholz
3. Brandon McCarthy
4. Joe Kelly
5. Allen Webster

Bullpen

• Burke Badenhop
• Rubby De La Rosa
• Tommy Layne
• Andrew Miller
• Edward Mujica
• Junichi Tazawa
• Koji Uehara

Lineup:

1. Mookie Betts, LF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Mike Napoli, 1B
5. Rusney Castillo, CF
6. Chase Headley, 3B
7. Shane Victorino, RF
8. Xander Bogaerts, SS
9. Christian Vazquez, C

Bench:

• Allen Craig, 1B/OF
• Brock Holt, IF/OF
• Gerald Laird, C
• Daniel Nava, OF

This series of offseason moves would give the Red Sox a very competitive roster entering the 2015 season. The Red Sox would also have $5-10M to accommodate any potential midseason acquisitions, should they need the extra cash.

Thanks for reading my “Armchair GM” post and let’s hope that the Red Sox’ offseason shapes up as positively as we can hope!