Red Sox Armchair GM: Conor’s take

Starting Pitching

Oct 26, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning during game five of the 2014 World Series at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

As it stands: 

After trades of Jon Lester (to Oakland), John Lackey (to St. Louis), Jake Peavy (to San Francisco), and Felix Doubront (to Chicago), the Red Sox’ rotation looks very different now than it did at the beginning of the season. Currently, Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly are the only locks to be members of Boston’s rotation in 2015 as, despite the team giving auditions to a number of young pitchers down the stretch, nobody else really separates themselves from the pack.

While the Red Sox have a myriad of young arms that appeared in the Major Leagues this year, including Matt Barnes, Rubby De La Rosa, Anthony Ranaudo, Allen Webster, Brandon Workman, none of them are truly ready to be members of the rotation. Therefore, the Red Sox are left with potentially three places to fill in the rotation entering the offseason. More likely, however, is that the Red Sox will acquire two starting pitchers and orchestrate a spring training competition for the fifth starter role.

Course of action:

The Red Sox need to acquire at least two pitchers through free agency and trades and, with a number of solid arms available, the defining question of this offseason will be who the Red Sox land. The consensus is that the Red Sox will pursue one ace-level pitcher and at least one second-tier, mid-rotation starter and that’s exactly the course of action that I plan to take as Red Sox GM.

1. The biggest move that I would make this offseason would be signing James Shields to a 4 year/$90M contract. Shields, now 32 years old, had yet another solid season as the ace of the American League champion Royals, posting a 3.21 ERA to go with solid peripherals, including a stingy 1.7 BB/9, 3.59 FIP, and an excellent 4.09 K/BB ratio. Due to his age, he will sign a smaller contract than fellow elite free agents Jon Lester and Max Scherzer and, for the cost, will likely prove his worth just as much as those two. Shields isn’t a bona fide ace like Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez, but the Red Sox have had plenty of success without a true ace (as recently as last season) and his consistent production would be a fantastic addition to the front of the Red Sox rotation.

2. Shields gives the Red Sox a front-end arm, but there’s still more to be done in a depleted Red Sox rotation. The Red Sox will need to acquire another mid-rotation starter to compete next season and Brandon McCarthy represents one of the more attractive names on the market. McCarthy, once a top starter for the Oakland A’s, struggled in his first season-and-a-half with the Diamondbacks but he revitalized his career and free agent stock this season after being traded to the Yankees. He posted just a 5.01 ERA in 18 starts for Arizona but he trimmed that to 2.89 in 14 starts for the Yankees and, as an excellent sinker-baller and clubhouse presence, would be a solid choice to pitch from the middle of Boston’s rotation. He could be looking for a multi-year deal after such success in New York and I would not hesitate to give him a 2 year/$15M deal.

The final product: 

After signing Shields and McCarthy, the Red Sox will have a front four of Shields, Buchholz, McCarthy, Kelly, and the fifth spot will be up for grabs. There will be a spring training competition between Matt Barnes, Rubby De La Rosa, Anthony Ranaudo, Allen Webster, and Brandon Workman and I expect that Webster, who trimmed his ERA (8.60 to 5.03) and his BB/9 (5.3 to 4.3) from his first to second season in the Major Leagues, will grab the final spot in the starting five.

This spending spree on starting pitching also means that the Red Sox, who have roughly $70M to spend this offseason, will have about $40M left to spend on other positions.