2015 Boston Red Sox Armchair GM: Spend big or go home

Oct 10, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington watches the team during a workout in preparation for the American League Championship Series at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Lets time travel back to the off-season between the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

The Red Sox had just endured their worst season since 1965. The saviors we thought we had in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford were nothing more than false prophets. Josh Beckett had forgotten how to throw a baseball and was working to take Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Clay Buchholz with him.

Bobby Valentine had been fired (thankfully), Gonzalez, Crawford and Beckett dumped in the Nick Punto trade with the Dodgers. John Farrell was the new man (back) in town, and John, Tom and Larry had money bags ready to drop like bombs on the free agent market. And that money was turned into Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, Jonny Gomes, David Ross, Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli and Koji Uehara. These acquisitions would amount to $100.7 million in financial commitments, and would account for $53.4 million of their payroll in 2013. We all know how 2013 ended.

Anybody else getting a little deja vu? Enter the off-season between the 2014 and 2015 season. John Farrell is still in town (despite the rumblings that have begun since Joe Maddon became available); after winning it all in 2013 the team (and its fans) endured another 90+ loss season, and once again John, Tom, and Larry find themselves holding stacks of cash after some smart wheeling and dealing mid season along with Ben Cherington’s effective contract structuring work.  As you can see above, they possess somewhere in the range of $52 million, not at all far from what they had before 2013… do I smell another World Series run in 2015? We certainly have more punch in our lineup than we did after 2012. With Xander Bogaerts, Rusney Castillo, Yoenis Cespedes, and Mookie Betts (and maybe even Allen Craig?) all expected to do great things next year beside the mainstays Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz, not to mention holdovers Mike Napoli, Daniel Nava and Shane Victorino, this team is loaded with offensive energy. But the pitching on the other hand, is much worse than 2012. Fortunately with a few offensive pieces to spare, and plenty of spending money, this team has the pieces to assemble a strong lineup for next year. Maybe even World Series caliber… but it this team needs a plan. I can only speculate as to Ben Cherington’s, but if I was in his shoes, this would be my plan.

Oct 26, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher

throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning during game five of the 2014 World Series at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

1) Sign James Shields; 4 year contract/ $92 million, AAV of $23 mil. I have said all along Shields is the guy I want, and it all comes down to consistency. Over the last four seasons, his worst saw him go 15-10 with a 3.52 ERA and 2.2 WAR – this came back in 2012. The other three saw Shields go no lower than 13 wins, a 3.21 ERA, and 3.3 WAR. Jon Lester seems to be the other popular candidate for the Red Sox to chase, but he will cost much more money. Over the same four years Jon Lester was much more inconsistent. His worst season, which coincidentally also came in 2012, (the year of the Red Sox collapse when they arguably needed him most) saw him go 9-14 with an atrocious 4.82 and .4 WAR. These numbers are unacceptable for an ace and came in his age 28 season, when the team expected his best. We can’t have another season like that from Lester if we are going to give him $23 million. His best season did outpace Shields’ own high watermark, but narrowly, and came this past year which just so happened to be his walk year… another coincidence? Lester’s other two seasons, he posted a 3.47 and 3.75 ERA, hardly the stats of an ace. I want Shields, but as with every player in this feature I will expose one flaw to my plan. Shields is not the stone cold playoff pitcher Lester is. But while concerning, this also helps the Red Sox. After a strong run to the postseason, there were murmurs that Shields had earned a fifth contract year, but with his playoff struggles, I think that it is possible he may have pitched his way back into the four year range. And the Red Sox will welcome him with open arms. Backup Plan: Overpay Jon Lester

Oct 26, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants third baseman

reacts after scoring a run against the Kansas City Royals in the 8th inning during game five of the 2014 World Series at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

2) Sign Pablo Sandoval; 5 year contract/ $100 million, AAV of $20 mil. I don’t often agree with Dan Shaughnessy, but it is in the best interest of the 2015 Boston Red Sox to sign Pablo Sandoval. The Kung Fu Panda hit .279 this season with 16 homers, 73 RBI, and 3.4 WAR, and it is not a stretch to think the offensive numbers would improve moving from AT&T Park to Fenway. He is just entering his prime and already flashed sensational abilities, with two seasons of 20+ HRs and 2 seasons batting .315+ already under his belt at just 28. Time will tell if he puts all his tools together or just maintain the numbers he puts up every year which are nothing to sneeze at. The Panda is usually good for a .280 AVG, 15 HRs, 70 RBI, and 50 R. As I said above, it would not be a surprise to see improvement with the venue change, but it is certainly expected as he enters his prime years. The other upside to the Panda is clutch hitting. He was the MVP of the World Series when the Giants swept the Tigers in 2012, and is a career .326 hitter with a .902 OPS in October baseball. As with Shields there is one caveat, left handed pitchers:  

As shown in the above tweet, southpaws gave the Panda fits this past year. I should also mention that he was the reason I decided to incorporate a backup plan along with each choice; there will be a market for him and Brian Sabean and the Giants will not let go of him easily. But if he is the best 3rd base option on the market for a team that desperately needs one. Backup Plan: Give up big time prospects for Adrian Beltre

Aug 3, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher

(38) pitches during the fourth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

3) Trade a package including Henry Owens and either Mookie Betts or Manuel Margot for Tyson Ross

This part of the plan is the one that has given me fits. First, I was firmly in the “trade Mookie” camp. There was no place for him, and no guarantee he would sustain his performance. Then I watched him play, and it became clear how much he could contribute and I had second thoughts. But ultimately, this team needs to acquire two front line starting pitchers to compete next year. Now, perhaps some of you would prefer to forgo Sandoval and gamble on Ervin Santana or Francisco Liriano instead. But Rob Bradford’s report would seem to take credence away from this possibility, as the team only wants to sign one starter.

As far as Tyson Ross goes, I have few doubts. A 3.17 ERA last year and 2.81 ERA this year speak on their own. He is only just beginning arbitration eligibility next year and is signed through his prime years (till 2018). The one caveat with Ross is that he is in San Diego, a pitcher’s park, coming to Fenway, a hitter’s park. But former Padre Mat Latos (another viable trade target), has done quite well in Cincinnati and I believe Ross can make the transition too, especially as a number two starter. And start the conversation with Manuel Margot and not Mookie Betts, but it took one of our best hitting prospects and one of our best pitching prospects to pry the last star from the Padres, and I am concerned we may see a similar price tag.

There is one overarching flaw I must acknowledge in my plan; I am assembling a rotation that is entirely right-handed. This may be a deal breaker for the team, and thus perhaps Cole Hamels is the better option. But to make the money work, we would probably be unable to sign Sandoval or would need Philly to take on money. Backup Plan: Trade a package including Mookie Betts and maybe Henry Owens for Cole Hamels.

Smaller Moves:

Sep 30, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman

(35) is tagged out at home plate by Oakland Athletics catcher

(17) to end the first inning of the 2014 American League Wild Card playoff baseball game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

4) Sign Geovany Soto; 1 year/$4 million dollar contract

The three major components of my plan have been realized but we are far from finished! We are quickly running out of cap room if sticking to that $50-$60 million range but there are still a few minor moves to be made. Christian Vasquez ought to see the bulk of the catching duty next year, but with his offensive limitations another catcher should be added. Soto would be a good bench bat to acquire, and can hold down the

offensive duties of the catching position until Swihart arrives.

He may be due a little bit more money than we gave to David Ross, but ultimately with his off field issues with the law, his injury history, and his inconsistencies on the field, he shouldn’t require a substantial financial commitment.

Backup Plan: Sign Gerald Laird

Aug 8, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher

(12) congratulates Kansas City Royals relief pitcher

(44) after the game against the Boston Red Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

5) Sign Luke Hochevar  3 year/$12 million contract, AAV of 4 mil.

We have now spent $51.5 million in free agency (Tyson Ross’s arbitration cost next year is tricky to predict) which perhaps the team will decide is simply too much. But the roster is now complete, and looks like a World Series roster to me. Hochevar is the final piece of the puzzle for me (as I wrote before here on Free Agent Friday); I see him becoming the team’s closer by the end of this year and into the next two. He is an immensely talented righty who was dominant in Kansas City’s bullpen last year.

But he missed this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and will thus be available at reduced cost. Kansas City doesn’t have an especially pressing need for him either with a strong bullpen in place, and needs to fill elsewhere. He can start in low-leverage situations and build up, and will make for a very interesting player in next year’s bullpen.

Backup Plan: Sign an established closer

Other Options:

Sep 17, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Yoenis Cespedes (52) hits balls to infielders during batting practice before playing the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Trade Yoenis Cespedes

With Allen Craig ready to step into left field, Cespedes is a luxury for this team. One who will almost certainly walk next winter but could net us some prospects this winter to reload after trading for Tyson Ross. The team will be a little power starved if this is done, however, and that is why I didn’t include it in the base plan.

Sep 15, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder

(22) reacts after he flies out in the ninth inning of their game against the Washington Nationals at Turner Field. The Nationals won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Trade for Jason Heyward

The Red Sox really like Heyward. I have heard the most rumors about their interest in James Shields, followed closely by Pablo Sandoval, but Heyward is the surprising number three. He would look very good ahead of or behind Rusney Castillo in the lineup and beside him in right field. But he will be a free agent next fall, and unless the team is very concerned about Victorino, I wonder why they wouldn’t wait a year. I should note that this trade is probably contingent on a Mookie Betts trade, and would also become likelier if Cespedes is moved.

Sep 8, 2014; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder

(27) hits a solo home run in the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Go big… Giancarlo Stanton or Chris Sale

Boy would these two bad boys look good in a Red Sox uniform next year. But I just don’t know how feasible it is. Sale would probably require Swihart who I am not prepared to give up, and the Marlins still firmly assert that Stanton is not available. Who knows… we will have to wait and see with these two; can’t even

speculate yet.