Free Agent Friday: Red Sox relief pitching options

Aug 20, 2014; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Zach Duke (59) during the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Honorable Mention Relief Pitcher: Zach Duke

Zach Duke was a revelation this year in an impressive Milwaukee relief core. Lead by a resurgent K-Rod, the Brew-Crew really worked hard to improve on one of their weakest points of 2013 and looked like the best team in baseball for a lot of the year because of it (despite just missing the playoffs). While Francisco Rodriguez and newcomer Will Smith pitched very well, Duke was the best of the three statistically. After a standout year as a rookie with the Pirates all the way back in 2005, his performance left a lot to be desired until he was given a chance by the Brewers this past season.

Duke finally came through, with a 2.45 ERA while holding opponents to a .223 batting average. He was dominant against lefties (.198 BAA) but he was still good against righties (.242 BAA) and also struck out 74 batters, while only walking 17 in 58.2 IP. His hugely impressive numbers would mean a lot more if he had a more consistent track record. That said, it is not altogether unusual for relief pitchers to figure it out later in their careers and he won’t necessitate quite as hefty a deal as some other names here. This could intrigue the Red Sox.

Oct 16, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Pat Neshek (37) throws against the San Francisco Giants during the eighth inning of game five of the 2014 NLCS playoff at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

#5 Relief Pitcher: Pat Neshek

Pat Neshek, elected to his first All Star game this past July, has not seen his career go according to plan. He had two very good seasons to begin his Major League career, posting a sub-3.00 ERA, and struck out 127 batters over his first 107 innings, all in relief. He then dealt with injuries and was not able to put together another really strong effort across a whole season until this past year. In February he signed a Minor League deal with the Cardinals, and after an offseason focusing on the improvement of his fastball velocity, was able to make the 25-man roster out of spring training.

The new and improved fastball would pay dividends for the 34-year old right-hander, as he became a nearly unhittable force for the Cardinals bullpen behind a 1.87 ERA. Neshek was not overly reliant on strikeouts, but this is no cause for concern as his 197 ERA+ and 2.37 FIP serve as great peripheral stats to supplement the resume he has built heading into this winter. Just like Zach Duke, Neshek looked like an entirely new pitcher this past season, and his numbers placed him among baseball’s best right-handed pitchers.

And he will be paid as such. Like the player that follows him on this list, Neshek will cash in this winter, and with a number of cheap young options I am not sure the Red Sox need to shell out for such a player, especially with their stockpile of right-handers.

Jul 25, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Andrew Miller (30) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

#4 Relief Pitcher: Andrew Miller

And that brings us to an old friend, Andrew Miller. Miller represents Neshek’s counterpart as the best left-handed reliever available. Despite Neshek having the better stats for the most part, in my opinion it is Miller holding the title of best relief pitcher available. First off, his astronomical strikeout numbers (103 in just 62 innings!) suggest that he has better stuff than Neshek. This argument is strengthened by a 1.51 FIP, meaning Miller may have been even better with a little bit more help in the field (I’m looking at you Xander Bogaerts, Will Middlebrooks A.J. Pierzynski and Jonny Gomes).

Second, his 2.02 ERA (which is mere decimal point behind Neshek) has even more weight due to the fact that Miller was thrown into the fray that is the AL East, not to mention being stuck in two very hitter-friendly ball parks. Finally, Miller is younger and left handed and has begun to show consistency, which summed up means he’s gonna get a lot of money this winter. All of that said, there will be quite a lot of competition for Miller and he doesn’t seem like the type to take a home town discount to come back here.

The former sixth overall pick never got paid the way he expected to, and he is going to get a hefty contract this offseason. I think that the Red Sox will be outbid by a team in more desperate need of his services like the Dodgers or the Tigers.

Jun 22, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Chicago White Sox relief pitcher Jesse Crain (26) delivers a pitch in the eighth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Chicago won the game 3-2. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

#3 Relief Pitcher: Jesse Crain

Jesse Crain did not have the season that Miller, Neshek, or Duke had. In fact, Crain didn’t throw a pitch in the Majors this season which is exactly why I’m interested in him. Pitchers who miss an entire year before entering free agency come at a bargain price, but as we saw from Eric O’Flaherty of the A’s this year, don’t necessarily lose a step when they return. Crain has a 3.05 career ERA, and had lowered his ERA for five consecutive years before losing this season after signing a 1 year/$3.25 million deal with Houston.

Crain should be back in action in 2015 and at just 33 years old, I see no reason why the right hander won’t pick up exactly where he left off with the White Sox in 2013. His health is an issue to be sure, but it is also a benefit, as the Red Sox may be able to get him for even cheaper than the $3.25 million the Astros got him for. Crane is still not quite as talented as the next two names on this list, but he is talented nonetheless… perhaps enough to close.

Sep 30, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Oakland Athletics relief pitcher Luke Gregerson (44) throws a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the eighth inning of the 2014 American League Wild Card playoff baseball game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

#2 Relief Pitcher: Luke Gregerson

The A’s have assembled a fearsome bullpen over the last few years (one that deserves more credit in the success of Billy Beane and Bob Melvin‘s Moneyball team), and the success of this year’s unit had a lot to do with offseason acquisition Luke Gregerson. The A’s have become adept at turning players they don’t really need, or are going to lose, into effective plug and play pieces. Acquired for Seth Smith, a solid player who ultimately was not overly valuable to Oakland, Gregerson joined Ryan Cook, Fernando Abad, O’Flaherty, and Sean Doolittle in a bullpen with machine-like efficiency.

In his first four seasons, all in relief with the Padres, Gregerson never once allowed his ERA to exceed 3.25 and also managed to lower it each season. He was traded to Oakland this past offseason and pitched even better than he did in San Diego. He recorded a 2.12 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 72 IP for the A’s behind improved control; Gregerson pitched to a career best 1.9 BB/9 and in turn achieved another career best 176 ERA+; not far behind American League leader Chris Sale‘s 178.

Gregerson will not be a cheap acquisition. But he is superbly consistent and would be a tremendous right-handed addition to the 2015 bullpen, certainly an upgrade over Badenhop. Gregerson has never been given a consistent opportunity as a closer but has the talent to do so, and at 30, he has plenty of baseball left. He will be paid as a really good reliever, but if he is ultimately used as a closer, he becomes a bargain.

Sep 20, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) delivers a pitch against the Texas Rangers during the eighth inning at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals defeated the Rangers 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

#1 Relief Pitcher: Luke Hochevar

My favorite option is Luke Hochevar. His similarity to Miller is uncanny, yet his upside is higher, and his price tag may be cheaper. Bringing back Miller would be a great thing, but Hochevar is the player I want more than anyone on this list. The former first overall pick was never able to become the ace starter that Kansas City hoped for. But a move to the bullpen in 2013 saved Hochevar’s career (as it did Miller’s) and finally revealed his true value.

As a starter, Hochevar was never able to best a 4.68 ERA, but in his first year as a reliever in 2013 he pitched 70 innings of pure dominance. With a 1.92 ERA, a .82 WHIP, and 2.0 WAR (an incredible number for a reliever), Hochevar set career bests across the board in his age 30 season. He also struck out 82 batters in those 70 innings, and it appeared as though Hochevar was finally ready to become a force for the Royals. Unfortunately, he was bit by the Tommy John bug in spring training this past year and was forced to miss the season.

And yet the Royals prospered without him. Behind elite closer Greg Holland, as well as RHPs Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis, the Royals already have an elite bullpen in place without Hochevar, and the team doesn’t have the financial flexibility to invest in an area of strength. Hochevar is a Frankenstein hybrid of Miller’s potential and O’Flaherty’s value this winter. His current team almost certainly won’t retain him, he can be had for reasonable money, and there is a real chance he will be one of the best relievers in baseball next year.

And in my mind, he can definitely close. He’s got the talent, and he has experience starting so we don’t have to worry about the wear and tear that destroyed Koji. Hochevar is the reliever I want this offseason.

Conclusion

If the team goes out and signs Hochevar (and I really hope they do) they will be in very good shape for next year. They will be a little bit heavy on right-handers, but Layne showed the ability to be the lefty specialist out of the pen in September. That said, either a trade or a second signing would do this team good.  If the team wanted to, it could sign both Duke and Hochevar, and trot out a truly dominant bullpen. And it would likely cost the same (or less) as signing K-Rod, Casey Janssen or even Koji.

Sep 19, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Junichi Tazawa (36) pitches in the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Red Sox won 5-3 in ten inning. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Whether it’s Hochevar or not, I really hope the team chooses to acquire a few high quality relievers as opposed to one expensive, established closer. Closers are a position that is difficult to predict, and because of that I don’t want to invest significant money at the position, even on Uehara. He is clearly slowing down, and is getting up there in age, and as the Tigers saw with Joe Nathan, the age wall can creep up out of nowhere.

This is the bullpen I would prefer to see, sans Koji:

Sep 12, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Tommy Layne (59) delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the seventh inning at Kauffman Stadium. Boston won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

RHP (Long Relief): Brandon Workman

LHP: Zach Duke

LHP: Drake Britton

LHP: Tommy Layne

RHP (seventh inning): Junichi Tazawa

RHP (eighth inning): Luke Hochevar

Closer: Edward Mujica

If (or when) Mujica struggles, plug in Hochevar, slide Tazawa back into the eighth and give the seventh to Duke. The Red Sox also still have Rubby De La Rosa (who looks like he could be a dominant pitcher out of the bullpen),  Anthony Ranaudo, Alex Wilson, and potentially Matt Barnes, Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens until they are ready to start.

Sep 27, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez (55) and relief pitcher Rubby De La Rosa (62) celebrate after defeating the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

There is depth built into this group and I would rather pay for quantity (with the potential for quality) than to pay for (risky) quality.

But what do YOU think?