Free Agent Friday: Red Sox options at third base
Aug 29, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Will Middlebrooks (16) works out prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
As the offseason approaches, we here at BoSox Injection have taken it upon ourselves to speculate on a few of the major free agents that the Red Sox could pursue this winter. Between the recent mediocrity of Will Middlebrooks and the relative inexperience of Brock Holt and Garin Cecchini, third base is certainly the biggest area of need in the Red Sox lineup and GM Ben Cherington could and should seek to plug that hole through free agency or the trade market. So today, on this inaugural “Free Agent Friday,” we’ll count down the five best third base options in free agency for Cherington and the Red Sox.
Oct 2, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles third baseman Kelly Johnson (14) during batting practice prior to game one of the 2014 American League divisional series against the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports
If everything breaks the wrong way in the third base market this winter and the Red Sox are unable to bring aboard a starting third baseman via free agency or a trade, then Kelly Johnson, who spent a few weeks in Boston this season, could potentially fill a role on the team. Johnson had a tough year in 2014, calling three AL East cities home (New York, Boston, and Baltimore) and slashing a combined .215/.296/.362 in 106 games, but he could potentially provide some value for the Red Sox.
Johnson’s most valuable asset is his versatility as he is capable of playing third base, second base, first base, and corner outfield. In his best seasons, he has also been able to handle the bat a bit, as indicated by his career 102 OPS+ (showing that he has been 2% better than the average offensive player, adjusted by home field). Plus, there’s always the benefit that Johnson would come very cheap, likely on a one-year deal.
Regardless of all those factors, however, it’s quite unlikely that the Red Sox will sign Johnson this winter as he likely would improve their lineup only marginally at best.
Oct 6, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez (13) hits an RBI double during the sixth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals in game three of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Without a doubt, Ramirez is the best player on this list. When healthy, “HanRam” has been one of the better shortstops in baseball for the better part of a decade and posted an impressive .283/.369/.448 slash line in an injury-riddled 2014. Now 30 years old and having lost a step since his days of 50 stolen bases, Ramirez is expected to shift to third base for the rest of his career, a position that he has played occasionally in the past.
Considering all of the positives associated with Ramirez, though, there’s one big negative that will likely prevent the Red Sox from signing him and that is cost. Ramirez will sign a huge contract this winter, likely well over $100M, and with the Red Sox also seeking to patch holes in their starting rotation and bullpen, they simply can’t allocate the majority of their budget to a player like Ramirez, as good as he is. Therefore, even though he is immensely talented and still has some good seasons left in him, the Red Sox will likely pass this offseason.
Sep 13, 2014; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez (16) watches his solo home run in the fourth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Now, we’re getting into more realistic territory. If the Red Sox do miss out on the elite options due to cost or disinterest or anything else, then Ramirez will provide a fallback option who, unlike Johnson, is a legitimate starting third baseman.
Ramirez has dealt with some injuries since signing with the Milwaukee Brewers before the 2012 season, but when healthy, he has been quite solid for the Brew Crew. His .285/.330/.427 slash line is the latest chapter in a trend of above-average seasons, a benchmark that he has surpassed in eleven of the last twelve years.
However, there’s no doubt that Ramirez is slowing down. He’ll be 36 years old on Opening Day next season and has lost some of the power that once made him an elite third baseman. Still, with those age concerns come the greater likelihood of a shorter, cheaper contract and, with those previously-mentioned issues in the rotation, a one-year deal could be an attractive option for the Red Sox. He’s not the most likely candidate for the third base gig, but he would likely be a passable third baseman at the least and his stability certainly has value.
Oct 12, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; San Francisco Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval hits a double against the St. Louis Cardinals during the sixth inning in game two of the 2014 NLCS playoff baseball game at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Sandoval looked well on his way to superstardom after posting a .943 OPS in his first full season as a 22 year old in 2009, but unfortunately that hope has not quite panned out. While Sandoval isn’t exactly a stud third baseman, however, he has developed into a consistently solid option at the hot corner in San Francisco. He posted a .279/.324/.415 slash line in 2014, a 111 OPS+ taking into account the not-so-friendly confines of AT&T Park, but despite that solid production this season, there are concerns over Panda’s future.
The first of those concerns is right on the surface with Sandoval: his weight. The Giants have exhorted Sandoval to lose some weight, but the 5’11”, 245 pound third baseman’s weight just hasn’t changed much since entering the league. That’s not a problem right now but players with Sandoval’s body type typically don’t age well and, with Sandoval expected to receive a contract of at least five years, that’s a potentially frightening possibility.
Also, considering the contract that Sandoval is likely to receive this offseason, Sandoval just isn’t that good. Despite Sandoval being smack dab in the middle of his prime, his OPS has declined in each of the past four seasons and that’s a concerning trend for a player of his age, whose numbers should be moving in exactly the opposite direction.
Moving to the Red Sox and Fenway Park would have a positive effect on his statistics but, with his weight and recent performance trends, I don’t like Sandoval’s chances to live up to his contract, especially with recent speculation that Kung Fu Panda could receive over $100M in free agency.
Aug 27, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; New York Yankees third baseman Chase Headley (12) hits a single during the second inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Headley represents the anti-Hanley Ramirez or Pablo Sandoval option. While he doesn’t have the flair (or potentially the talent) of either player, there’s a much better chance that he becomes a solid, reliable third baseman for the Red Sox and lives up to his contract.
He had a tough season in 2014, slashing .243/.328/.372 between the Padres and Yankees, but his larger body of work suggests that Headley is a better player than that. Of course, he had that stellar 2012 season in which he broke onto the scene with a .286/.376/.498 slash line, 31 home runs, and a league-leading 115 RBIs. Throughout his career, though, he has been a consistent and reliable third baseman, featuring a career .265/.347/.409 line despite spending approximately half of his games in PetCo Park, a notoriously pitcher-friendly stadium.
In addition to his good-but-not-great offensive statistics, though, Headley is also a phenomenal defensive third baseman. A one-time Gold Glover and champion of defensive metrics, Headley would provide great defensive stability at the hot corner, a valuable, if underrated, skill.
More than anything else, though, the factor that bumps Headley above the other third base candidates is his potential contract. Coming off a rough season, he will be significantly less expensive than Sandoval or Ramirez, while likely providing similar production (to Sandoval at least). He’s not a sexy option, but it’s likely that he’s the player Ben Cherington will have his eye on this winter, and with good reason.