Red Sox should “Chase” Headley, not Panda

I will begin with a disclaimer: I do NOT believe Chase Headley is a better player than Pablo Sandoval, at least in terms of offense. I do believe Sandoval is the premier free agent third baseman on the market and deservedly so. He’s put up a career .811 OPS while playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark (though it’s not as pitcher-friendly as the park Headley called home for most of his career). If the Red Sox do indeed sign Sandoval, he will be a good addition at least for the immediate future.

Oct 11, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; San Francisco Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval draws a walk against the St. Louis Cardinals in the fifth inning in game one of the 2014 NLCS playoff baseball game at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

That being said, I do feel Headley would be a better fit for the Red Sox if they were to pursue a free agent for the third base job. Going for the mid-tier free agents has become a calling card for the club in recent seasons, and Headley over Sandoval is right up that alley. Aside from that, I have three thorough explanations as to why the Sox should “chase” Headley instead of the Panda.

1. Better Defender

While Sandoval is indeed a better overall hitter than Headley, Headley is the superior fielder.

Sandoval has usually ranked average to below average at third in his career, while Headley has ranked well above average defensively. In the lifetime of each player’s respective next deal, Headley is more likely to remain a third baseman.

A three or four-year deal for Headley would also not necessarily be giving up on Garin Cecchini, though it would make the prospect a more available trade chip. Cecchini did spend some time in left field this season. We’ve yet to find out what the Red Sox will do with Yoenis Cespedes in his walk year. But if he does walk, Cecchini could step in as the starting left fielder after 2015.

It’s highly unlikely that Sandoval remains at third through the entire lifetime of his next deal. I’ll go further into detail later in the article. That being said, with Sandoval’s defensive uncertainties and Headley’s superior glove, the latter is a better investment as a fielder. It’s even more appealing considering it would be a plus to sandwich Xander Bogaerts between two Gold Glovers. Signing Headley would accomplish that.

2. No Draft Pick Compensation

Having been traded during the season, Headley is not eligible to receive a qualifying offer. Therefore, any team that signs him will not have to surrender a draft pick.

The Red Sox will have their first rounder (seventh overall) protected in next year’s draft. They will also be receiving Oakland’s Competitive Balance Pick as part of the Jon Lester trade. So there is a good chance that the club is more open to parting with that pick than they were in the 2012-2013 offseason.

That being said, the Red Sox could very well prefer to burn that pick by signing a top-tier starter such as James Shields. Or they could go after mid-tier guys with solid upside such as Justin Masterson, Ervin Santana, or Brandon McCarthy to retain that draft pick. That draft pick is currently the 43rd overall pick and is 27 spots higher than the Competitive Balance pick they’ll be receiving from the A’s.

Most clubs are placing a higher value on draft picks than in years past. The Red Sox should be no different. Especially when considering there’s still quality in the free agent options that come without penalization attached.

3. Likely Terms And Lifetime Of The Deal

According to a recent profile article off MLB Trade Rumors, Headley is projected to receive something in the range of four years and $48 million. The Red Sox could always try to shave a year off the deal while increasing the annual salary if they aren’t comfortable committing longer than three years. But even if the player is set on receiving a four-year pact, the Sox should not shy away. Headley will still be on the front side of 35 at the end of a four-year pact and four years should not be a deal breaker.

Sandoval, on the other hand, will be the premier free agent hitter on this year’s market given his age (recently turned 28) and above-average power potential. His suitors are likely to be other big market clubs such as the Dodgers or Yankees. These two factors make it hard to see Sandoval getting a commitment that’s anything less than five years.

It should be noted that Sandoval may be coming with a “Buyer Beware” tag. His current team (San Francisco Giants) hasn’t been shy of handing out extensions, most notably to the likes of Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Hunter Pence. One has to wonder why they never reached an extension with Sandoval given he’s young, fairly durable, one of the more productive third basemen in the game, and not represented by Scott Boras. The answers are probably found when looking at his body type and regression with the glove and bat.

Sandoval’s body type is not one that ages well. One needs to look no further at the current Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder deals. The former hasn’t been the same since rupturing his Achilles tendon during an at-bat during the 2011 NLDS. The latter signed a very lucrative deal prior to 2012 and put up a .940 OPS that season. His OPS dropped to .814 in 2013 and was .720 with a meager total of three home runs (while playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark) before suffering a season-ending injury that required surgery. As of right now, Howard is still owed $50 million for the next two seasons with a $23 million option or $10 million buyout for 2017. Fielder is still owed $144 million for the next six seasons, with the Tigers paying $30 million of that salary for him to be the Rangers’ problem. Chances are Sandoval’s deal won’t be as costly, but there’s still the risk of him getting old very fast.

Now we reach the point where we revisit the issue of where to play Sandoval down the road. With him continuing to regress defensively as a third baseman, it is doubtful Sandoval stays at the hot corner in the coming seasons. Those in the pro-Sandoval camp suggest making the player the primary first baseman a season or two into his deal. While in theory it makes some sense (Sandoval has played some first base in the past and should be an adequate fielder at the position), it’s very questionable if his bat is good enough to be penciled in at such an elite offensive position.

Sandoval’s OPS had declined in each of the past three seasons. While a move to a more hitter-friendly home ballpark should reverse that trend, it’s no guarantee. Look no further than Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann. Both players experienced a drop in OPS despite playing their home games in a ballpark that was tailor-made for their respective swings.

Even if Sandoval does reverse his OPS playing his home games at Fenway, the increase will likely be more tame than tremendous. With that in mind, as well as his tendencies to have an OBP under the AL average for first basemen, it’s doubtful the bat will ever be playable as a regular first baseman.

Realistically, Sandoval could eventually become a primary designated hitter who occasionally subs at first and third. Which brings us to our next dilemma: When exactly will that happen? David Ortiz could very well play another three seasons. If Sandoval continues to regress defensively, will he hit enough to justify remaining on the field? Unless he miraculously starts putting up Miguel Cabrera-like numbers until and beyond Papi’s “R34PECT” tour in 2017, the answer is probably “no.”

Headley has also experienced a decrease in OPS the last three seasons, but we should also consider that his home ballpark has been even less hitter-friendly and his supporting cast has been considerably worse for most of his career. Headley also put up a more exceptional OPS (.768) after being traded to the Yankees where he found himself in a more hitter-friendly ballpark and on a team that was at least in pseudo-contention. It’s likely he would put up a solid offensive output at Fenway. His defense will more than make up for the amount of ground he’d be giving up offensively in comparison to Sandoval.

Let’s Review

If Chase Headley puts up an OPS of .750 or better with 12 or more homers annually while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense, a three or four year investment in the $36-52 million range would be money well spent. It’ll also be something much better than they’ve gotten at the position over the last two seasons. Sandoval on the other hand, is likely to land a significantly larger deal and has been regressing in recent seasons. Aside from the bigger salary, Sandoval will also come with attached draft pick compensation. Why not sign the sure thing for less money and keep the pick?

It’s very likely that the Red Sox will look to upgrade at third from outside the organization this coming offseason. If they go down the free agent route, they shouldn’t pursue the biggest name. Instead, they should pursue the one who’s less touted, but still solid.

They should “Chase” Headley, not Panda.