Early predictions for the 2015 Red Sox rotation

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This represents part four of a five part analysis of the 2015 Red Sox rotation. Part one analyzed which of the current Red Sox starters have pitched well enough to earn a spot on next year’s pitching staff, while part two examined the free agent market and ranked the potential fits, and part three was a showcase of the trade options available this winter ranking the options by their talent. This fourth component offers my predictions for what starting pitchers could find themselves on the 25 man roster in the spring; please note these predictions are based on the information available to me as of October 7 and my views may change as the off season unravels. I not only chose one player to fill every rotation spot but offered two back up plans in the event plan A falls through. Each option was selected and ordered based on a combination of my view of their talent, and my perception of their fit in the Red Sox organization. Ladies and gents, part four:

Final Prediction:
Staff Ace: James Shields

Oct 5, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) reacts against the Los Angeles Angels after the final out of the top of the sixth inning in game three of the 2014 ALDS baseball playoff game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

For those of you that read my free agent targets at starting pitcher, you know that I am among the many who see James Shields as an excellent fit for the 2015 Red Sox. Shields will not command nearly as much as fellow aces Jon Lester and Max Scherzer, in dollar value or time commitment. Shields has been a portrait of efficient consistency all the way back to his breakout season during his days as a Ray. Shields is playoff tested; a factor that Ben Cherington and all of Red Sox Nation should not take for granted after watching some dominant starting pitchers get shelled right out of October baseball when faced with a playoff lineup.

Hopefully the team can come to a four year deal with a loaded average annual value for the 32 year old righty. A five year $100 million dollar deal is also not out of the realm of possibility, and I would still prefer it to seven or eight year deals with Lester and Scherzer. There is plenty of smoke to give credence to this possibility. Nick Cafardo recently wrote that the Red Sox “covet” Shields, and industry heavy hitters Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal have also linked the Sox to Shields. I hope this one gets done, and barring a team giving him the extra years that I know the Red Sox won’t, I expect it to happen.

Plan B) Jon Lester

My contingency plan to bring in an ace is likely the headline many of you are desperately waiting for. But I do not expect Jon Lester to return to Boston. Ben Cherington does not expect Jon Lester to return to Boston, otherwise he would have long ago extended him and we would never have seen Yoenis Cespedes don a Red Sox jersey. The Cubs have made it no secret that Jon Lester is a priority and barring an appearance from a mystery team in the Lester sweepstakes, or a stronger than expected effort by the Yankees, my gut says Lester will take the mound at Wrigley next year.

But if James Shields bolts for Texas, or the Yankees diabolically undercut us the way they did this year (to their own detriment) with Carlos Beltran and grab Big Game James, then I think Ben Cherington will be in the unfortunate position of crawling back to Lester. With a true need for an ace that will leave them with zero leverage, I can’t imagine a hometown discount will enter the conversation this time around. If we are to prevent Cubs GM Theo Epstein from signing him, we will have to give Jon Lester much more than we want to.

Plan C) Chris Sale

Sep 24, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (49) warms up before the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The best of the three pitchers I named is the dark horse pick because he is a long shot. Buried in this article from the great Peter Gammons, is a tidbit of note to Red Sox Nation: “They’re not trading Vasquez, or Betts…” the only words that may mean more to Red Sox fans than a Jon Lester signing. If Mookie Betts is off the table, and Gammons is the one person I would accept that from, then our trade market has severely dwindled. It seems beyond impossible in my eyes to get a Sale trade done without Mookie, unless they have changed their stance on moving Xander Bogaerts and Blake Swihart… I hope they haven’t.

No, Henry Owens and Manuel Margot represent our next best prospects who, presumably, are available via trade but are far from a Sale worthy package. Lest the Sox change their course by mid-season, don’t expect Chris Sale in a Sox uniform next year. But there is one top starter who I believe we could still acquire…

Number Two Starter: Cole Hamels

Sep 23, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels (35) delivers a pitch during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Ballpark. The Marlins won 2-0. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, the dreaded Cole Hamels could be bringing his concerning inter-league stats to Boston this winter. Here’s a peek at his stats against the AL East Teams in their ballparks, as well as his stats against the American League in general:*

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*Hamels has never pitched at Tropicana Field; thus explaining the absence of the Rays in my table

So let’s break this down. The 4.54 ERA against American League Lineups is shaky. The shellings by the Blue Jays and Orioles are also worrisome as he will not be able to avoid those lineups as a Red Sox pitcher (and they won’t get any easier to handle in the coming years). That being said, he pitched well at Fenway in his one outing, and he also kept the Yankees in check which is another important quality for a Red Sox pitcher. And he still maintained 8.1 K’s/9 and 3.77 BB/9 that are right in line with his career marks of 8.5 and 3.77 respectively, so his stuff and command is not mysteriously vanishing.

I think he would do fine against American League lineups in the long run; yes, there may be an adjustment period and no, he may not be as dominant as in the National League. But these are points of leverage in trade discussion, points that will make Hamels available for perhaps Henry Owens and Manuel Margot rather than having to bring Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart into the conversation. He is the one arm on the trade market the Sox seemed to be linked to and the Phillies are clearly interested in what we have to offer as well. This prediction has the lowest chance of coming to fruition but that is saying more about my confidence in the other ones than my lack of it in a Hamels deal happening. You should all be hoping, but it is not a stretch to be cautiously optimistic about this one either, and could also see us reel in another piece, like veteran catcher Carlos Ruiz, upside outfielder Domonic Brown or even our old (overpaid) friend Jonathan Papelbon; just so long as Ryan Howard isn’t included…

Plan B) Tyson Ross 

Jul 19, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Tyson Ross (38) pitches during the first inning against the New York Mets at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Much more of an unknown than Hamels, Tyson Ross put together another strong season in 2014 and I truly expect him to be their target via trade if not Hamels. Despite his youth and affordability, Ross may not quite be the pitcher Hamels is which is one of three reasons I have him ranked behind Hamels. The second reason is that he is right handed; this may seem nit picky but currently with the Red Sox are very light on left handed starters and while the casual fan may not notice a difference, having depth in his starting pitching repertoire is important to a pitching minded coach like John Farrell.

The third reason though is the most important, Ross is a budding ace. He is just 27 years old and entering his prime and will be arbitration eligible next year, where he will get expensive in a hurry. While these initial arbitration salaries are pennies to the Fenway group, Ross will be a free agent in 2018 as a 31 year old and will command a hefty deal if he hits the open market. If the team can work out an extension beforehand, they will have themselves a coup, but if not they will surely lose him to whoever is willing to give him that deal into his late 30’s.

Plan C)Clay Buchholz

The in house option, and the only that does not involve sacrificing top prospects. That said, it is also by far the worst option to me, because while there is a chance Buchholz returns to ace form, his durability issues make that a risky proposition to bank on. There is not much else to say here, even though giving up high upside prospects is always a risk, this to me, is by far the riskiest of the three options. I would rather give up Margot or even dare I say Betts if it means securing Hamels, Ross or Mat Latos (really a long shot). Pitching wins in the playoffs and a Red Sox team with playoff aspirations won’t get very far with Clay Buchholz as their number two starter. If there was a trade suitor for him, I would not be remiss to move him. But that said, his current ceiling is a number three starter, and if the Red Sox elect to use the low set up of Christian Vasquez to his advantage he could thrive in that role..

Number Three Starter: Clay Buchholz

Sep 28, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz (11) delivers a pitch during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Which is why I’m giving it to him. For 2015 at least, Vasquez should see a lot of playing time while the super prospect Swihart refines his abilitiwa in Triple A for one more year. Vasquez is a tremendous game caller, sets up low, frames pitches phenomenally, and throws out anyone that runs on the bases. All four of these skills will aid Clay Buchholz. As someone with a deep repertoire of pitches, having Vasquez behind the plate to keep hitters guessing will just create one less thing for the often mentally shaky Buchholz to worry about. Vasquez also sets up low, where Buchholz makes a living when he is pitching well and if he loses his control slightly as can happen with him, look for Vasquez to pull the ball back and steal a few strikes. Finally, another thing that has always thrown off Buchholz is baserunners. But with his Yadier Molina esque arm, concerns of base runners too will be alleviated. I expect a bounce back year from Buchholz in his contract year, and if we get one, he will be quite the number three starter.

Plan B) Kenta Maeda

Mar 17, 2013; San Francisco, CA, USA; Japan starting pitcher Kenta Maeda (20) pitches the ball against Puerto Rico during the first inning of the World Baseball Classic semifinal at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Another interesting mid rotation option is the latest superstar pitcher to head for Major League Baseball from Japan, Kenta Maeda. As my colleague Conor Duffy wrote, Maeda has already expressed interest in signing a (lucrative) deal with either the Red Sox or Yankees. But, unlike last year in the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes where the Yankees had a strong lineup and no rotation, this year, the shoe is on the other foot and the Red Sox find themselves needing pitchers. But the sticking point could be the six year, $130 million dollar deal he is reportedly seeking. As Conor wrote, the Red Sox scouts don’t view him as a top of the rotation arm, so if someone else is willing to break the bank, and after the success of Tanaka, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Yu Darvish it wouldn’t surprise me, we could see Maeda seek greener pastures elsewhere. But if Maeda’s market is that of a mid rotation starter, perhaps in the range of the deal Tigers pitcher Anibal Sanchez received at five years, and $80 million it would not shock me to see him pitching in our rotation next year.

Plan C) Francisco Liriano

This one seems like a long shot to me. I wish it wasn’t. I trust his talent, and think we could have him on a deal similar to the ones that other risky pitchers like Bartolo Colon and Scott Kazmir received in the range of two to three years and between $10 and $14 million a season, in other words, Cherington’s favorite contract. But alas, there would appear to be no smoke to this one yet, and there is plenty of smoke elsewhere, which leads me to believe that Liriano may not be in the Red Sox’s plans this winter.

Number Four Starter: Allen Webster

Sep 12, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Allen Webster (64) delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Anyone who has read any of my writings knows I believe in Allen Webster. Enough to give him a spot next year, and down the stretch he looked like a pitcher who deserved a rotation spot. Granted its a tremendously small sample size but:

The talent is there and he was putting it together in September. I would not be opposed to trying him in the bullpen because I think he could succeed there too, and as mentioned in the Peter Gammons article I linked earlier, giving Carlos Carrasco time to hone his skills in the bullpen worked wonders for the now Indians starter. Tyson Ross followed that same path himself actually. So in the end my conclusion is to start him in the rotation and if he doesn’t succeed, try him in the bullpen until he does.

Plan B) Justin Masterson

Aug 30, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Justin Masterson (63) delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

Another signing that would not slightly surprise me is a reunion with Justin Masterson. It seems like for years the team, and fans, have been scheming of ways to bring the talented starter back to Boston after dealing him away for Victor Martinez in 2009. But this year there were no Masterson rumblings. No, this year he struggled… mightily. So much so that the Indians decided that the player who was their ace for the last few seasons was becoming a roadblock to their new group of talented young arms.

He was dealt to the Cardinals, a team notorious for taking flyers and turning them into core components. But even the magic at work in St. Louis proved incapable of fixing Masterson. He should be very cheap this offseason and people in the organization still love him here. He could pay dividends for someone willing to give him a chance, and don’t rule out that team being us.

Plan C) Jon Niese

I would not trade premier prospects for Jon Niese. The Mets, conceivably would not accept an offering of sub-par prospects for Niese. The oft-maligned Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a suggestion straight out of left field (very bad pun intended), in the form of a rather uneven straight up swap of Niese and Yoenis Cespedes. Right off the bat, I am sure some are wondering if we turned Cespedes into Jon Lester, how on Earth does it follow that Niese would be our return for Cespedes.

It all comes down to club control here. Niese is signed to one of the most manageable contracts in baseball right now, while Cespedes is entering a walk year. There has been speculation that the team has no desire to extend Cespedes and will be looking to move him either this winter or next deadline. Personally, I don’t understand the sentiment and am frazzled by the notion that he doesn’t fit into our future plans here. I don’t want to trade Cespedes and while this trade is closer to fair than many of you think, I will want more than that (elite bullpen arms and/or prospects). I much prefer Sherman’s first suggestion of a Shane Victorino for Bartolo Colon swap. But I also think he’s crazy if he thinks the Mets can pry Bogaerts from us, even with All-Star Daniel Murphy and super prospect Noah Syndergaard. Niese would be a good add, but remains a long shot.

Number Five Starter: Joe Kelly

Sep 27, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Joe Kelly (56) walks off the mound after being relieved during the eighth inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Kelly is like the slow and steady turtle that still wins the race. He will not wow anyone, he keeps low strikeout numbers and is more of an innings eater than a shutdown pitcher. But as a groundball pitcher there is room for him to succeed here at Fenway, as he did down the stretch achieving a modest 4.11 ERA in Boston that concealed the fact that he turned in six quality starts in ten appearances, and came very close to notching two more in his last three starts.

But he pitched well enough for the team to win games in his time here, earning a 4-2 record, and I think he will be a more than adequate option to round out next year’s pitching staff. And if he falters.. there are plenty of contingency options waiting in the wings such as:

Plan B) Rubby De La Rosa

The young fireballer hurled his way to early success with the team at summer’s onset, but ultimately wore himself out and fell off pretty substantially down the stretch. His stuff worked as a starter but it clearly wears him out to put his best stuff to use, and that is why I picture him in a bullpen role going forward. But he has dominant potential as a reliever and can surely make spot starts too.

Plan C) Matt Barnes

Sep 13, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Matt Barnes (68) delivers a pitch in the eighth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City won the game 7-1. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

I really want to give Matt Barnes a chance. Like Allen Webster, he has the talent to succeed in the major leagues if only as a middle to back end starter. Whether it is because Kelly is not doing well enough or Clay Buchholz implodes again, I expect Matt Barnes to be the next man up; Anthony Ranaudo proved his stuff would allow too many fly balls to succeed in Fenway and represents a good trade asset or bullpen option, Brandon Workman finally wore out his welcome in the rotation and is certainly bullpen bound, and Henry Owens is not ready, nor do I expect him to be at his age. Owens will be here soon (assuming he isn’t traded) but Barnes is very close to ready, and quite talented in his own right.

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