Ranking the best trade targets for the 2015 Red Sox rotation

This represents part three of a five part analysis of the 2015 Red Sox rotation. Part one analyzed which of the current Red Sox starters had earned a spot in the 2015 rotation, while part two examined the free agent market for potential fits. This third segment is an in-depth showcase of the options that may be available via the trade market this winter to bolster the rotation. This post categorizes players into those that I am confident can be acquired and players that may not be so easily pried from their current club. These rankings DO rank the target pitchers by talent; unlike with the free agent list, I do not believe the Red Sox have many restrictions on their trade philosophy, and thus looked at it from the perspective that any one of these pitchers could be had given the value of the team’s prospects.

Honorable Mention: Jon Niese

Sep 2, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Jonathon Niese (49) throws during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The 27-year old Niese has flown way under the radar, not only trapped on the miserable Mets, but concealed behind the flashy young upstarts Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, and even Noah Syndergaard, who has not even thrown a pitch in the major leagues. The quietly effective Niese put together a sub 3.50 ERA for the second time in the last three years, while compiling 185 or more innings pitched for the second time in the same span. But his true value lies in his contract; the Mets made a surprisingly astute move, signing him to a very team-friendly deal before he started thriving.

Next year, he will enter the fourth year of a five year, $25.27 million deal. Even more appealing are the two option years, both held by the team, that can keep him under club control for a still reasonable $21 million divided across two seasons. With a FIP that doesn’t promote concerns of regression, Niese looks like a safe option, and one who will be affordable in both monetary value and trade value. That said, he deserves honorable mention because he would best be suited as a number three or four starter. If the Red Sox decide to sign an ace and call it quits, Niese would slot in nicely behind Buchholz and ahead of Kelly, bumping De La Rosa to the bullpen.

Great options… if they can be had

8. Jose Quintana

Sep 25, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher

(62) throws a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

The lesser known 25-year old ChiSox southpaw, Quintana is far from a slouch. The international product signed out of Colombia in the winter following the 2011 season has been very strong in his first three seasons with the White Sox. Perhaps more encouraging has been his progression across those three seasons, debuting to a solid 3.76 ERA in 2012, improving to an even better 3.51 in 2013, and ultimately underscoring his growth with a stellar 3.32 ERA this past season. That number is nearly a full point better than that of the best ERA in the Red Sox rotation at the end of 2014, Joe Kelly‘s 4.11.

He pitched 200 innings each of the last two seasons and has seen his strikeout totals steadily climb also, reaching 178 this year. All of these numbers are impressive but the sticking point will be his availability. The White Sox have stated that they have no intentions of trading their young arms, despite the obvious rebuild that they are undergoing. With Quintana under team control until 2019, they truly have no pressure to deal him unless they get a hefty offer; one that will likely need to include Henry Owens or Mookie Betts (I consider Xander Bogaerts and Blake Swihart untouchable and generally don’t even float them in hypothetical trades). Some of the other names on this list will have a similar price tag but better resume, so unless the asking price is less than I expect, it may be safer to deal for someone else.

7. Braves Young Arms: Mike Minor/Kris Medlen/Brandon Beachy/Alex Wood

Mar 9, 2014; Port St. Lucie, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher

(54) throws against the New York Mets in spring training action at Tradition Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves once again find themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place. After again missing the playoffs, it has become apparent that they are not as close to contention as they seemed to be after the acquiring the Upton brothers. Now they risk losing one of their biggest young superstars in Jason Heyward because they gambled and missed, badly, on B.J. Upton. With the potential loss of Heyward looming large, they may seek to acquire another outfielder in the near future who will be capable of generating offense in the top half of their lineup.

The Braves may have to deal from their surplus of young quality arms if they want to bolster their offense. People forget how much good pitching the Braves actually have; this past season they were actually heavily interested in acquiring more, the reason being that most of their pitching talent has a way of ending up on the DL. Both Alex Wood and Mike Minor missed substantial time this season, and trended in different directions in their time on the field. Minor (26), who looked phenomenal next to his 3.21 ERA in 2013, struggled mightily this season and saw that number climb to 4.77. Wood (23) on the other hand, impressed for the second straight year with a dominant 2.78 ERA.

Beachy (28) has spent quite a bit of his four Major League seasons battling the injury bug, but compiled 3.3 WAR in limited time his first two seasons, and looked incredible in his shortened 2012 season. Rounding out the foursome is Kris Medlen (pictured), who also excelled in a two-year span before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. After taking the baseball world by storm in 2012, he leveled out while maintaining excellence, posting a 3.11 ERA. Any of these starters would make an incredible addition… but may involve giving up Cespedes or Betts.

6. Jordan Zimmermann

Oct 4, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher

(27) pitches in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants in game two of the 2014 NLDS playoff baseball game at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Rob Carr/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Nationals have no reason to trade Zimmermann. Again, he outshined the flashier Stephen Strasburg, leading the Nats to October as the team’s true ace. But I have a hunch. Whenever teams have this much young talent in sports, eventually some of it inevitably gets forced out. With Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister and Tanner Roark rounding out the rotation behind Zimmermann and Strasburg, the Nats certainly do not want in the pitching department. So clearly they must be compensating for a lackluster offense, no?

Alas, the Nats have Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche and Ian Desmond to complement two of the brightest young hitters in the game in Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper. Now, perhaps I am looking too far down the road, but the team is already dealing with concerns that they may lose Desmond to free agency and Werth, LaRoche and Zimmerman are nearing the end of their careers.  Problematic now? No. Down the road? Almost certainly. They also lack the in-house solutions to fix their offense from within, with a farm system whose clear strength is pitching.

Which leads to the last point before I form my conclusion. With Lucas Giolito and to a lesser extent A.J. Cole rapidly approaching, does this team really still need Jordan Zimmermann? I don’t believe so, and I think that eventually he will be moved for a bat. That being said, Gio Gonzalez would not be a bad consolation prize if the team does decide to keep Zimmermann. I could be jumping the gun on this one, but my instincts tell me it could be in the works in due time.

4. Mat Latos

Aug 17, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Cincinnati Reds pitcher

(55) delivers a pitch during the third inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

One Padres pitcher who has had very little trouble adjusting to life outside of San Diego is Mat Latos (26). Among the many talents plucked from San Diego before he could blossom for them, the 26-year old Reds starter has impressed from the onset of his still young career. As a 22-year old in San Diego, Latos wowed over 31 starts with a 14-10 record, 3.o WAR, and 189 K’s in 185 IP to go along with the first shutout of his career. He regressed some in 2011 after starting the season on the DL and actually tied a franchise record for longest winless streak despite his still strong numbers.

Latos was unhappy in San Diego, and made some enemies in the clubhouse before San Diego elected to trade the young talent (on a side note, he was actually included in the deal that sent Edinson Volquez to San Diego that I mentioned in my free agent targets post). In his first year in Cincinnati, Latos nearly replicated his ERA and strikeout totals, but saw his record leap to 14-4, and his WAR to 4.1. His follow-up saw him lower his ERA all the way back down to 3.16 and the Reds have been quite satisfied with the young pitcher’s performance.

But alas, the Reds remain a mid-market club with substantial money devoted to Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce, not to mention a need to extend Aroldis Chapman and Todd Frazier. Cincinnati  should have the ability to extend a pitcher, but unfortunately, they have two ace pitchers. Will they choose to extend Latos, or his more expensive counterpart, who will make an appearance later on this list?

3. Cole Hamels

Sep 28, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher

(35) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

After my article supporting a Mookie Betts trade, I learned that apparently Red Sox nation is unimpressed by Cole Hamels and his 2.46 ERA. Yes, after watching him continue to exceed expectations for almost a month after I published that article, I have had some second thoughts. But people seem a little too confident in Mookie Betts. Yes, Mookie will be cheaper and has boatloads of potential. But Cole Hamels is a premier player in the league. I was astonished just how many people were negative of my article, not because I was acting as a proponent of a Betts trade, but because I had the gall to suggest targeting Hamels in return.

Seriously? Cole Hamels is a World Series-winning (he also claimed MVP by the way), perennial Cy Young contender in the prime of his career. Stop me if that sounds like another lefty who the Fenway Faithful are desperate to sign. I really don’t mean to come across as anti-Mookie. I think he is a terrific player. I raved about him in the BoSox Injection Red Sox Rookie of the Year roundtable. But right now, the Red Sox have a surplus of outfielders and a dearth of starting pitchers. I too, would much rather see Mookie packaged for Giancarlo Stanton, but let’s just say he is not available by trade. Maybe the Sox go out and sign him a few years from now, but until then, they need pitching.

Hamels represents one of the best left-handed pitchers in the league (better than Jon Lester, in this writer’s opinion) and he is only signed through his age 34 season, presumably before he will start to decline. The Red Sox could pay him the big bucks while he is in his prime, and then be able to sign him to a new contract that pays him a rate that a pitcher over the age of 35 should expect to earn. If one of the two names ahead of him on the list is available, I am going for him instead. But I am not going to turn my nose up at Cole Hamels.

2. Johnny Cueto

Sep 11, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher

(47) throws against the St. Louis Cardinals in the fourth inning at Great American Ball Park. The Reds won 1-0. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Though Mat Latos is an ace in his own right, he played second fiddle to Cueto (28) this season in Cincinnati. I am a big time proponent of taking a patient approach with pitchers with strong stuff, because not all of them hit the ground running and Cueto is another shining example of this. He debuted for the Reds in 2008, starting 31 games and got off to a rocky start, not unlike what we saw from Allen Webster this year. He pitched 178 innings his rookie year, going 9-14 with a 4.81 ERA.

His second year unfortunately only saw minor improvements (hopefully for our sake, this won’t be the case with Webster), lowering his ERA to 4.41 and pitching to a .500 record.  But he truly burst onto the scene in 2011, dealing his way to a 2.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 3.5 WAR. The next three seasons have seen Cueto post a sub 3.00 ERA, the type of consistency Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Josh Beckett dream of. A true ace, Cincinnati has a very tough decision on its hands as he enters the final year of his contract.

He is better than Latos, but will they be able to afford his eventual asking price if he continues to decimate the competition? Surely not, particularly if he can somehow replicate (surely he can’t climb any higher, right?) his numbers from this year, which earned him the nickname Johnny Beisbol – a tip of the cap to his Dominican heritage. This past season was his best yet, going 20-9, a .96 WHIP and 2.25 ERA, to go along with 242 K’s in 243 IP and a striking 6.4 WAR, finishing among the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Felix Hernandez, Hamels, and the only player ahead of him in these rankings.

1. Chris Sale

Sep 24, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher

(49) pitches in the third inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Sale represents the true prize on this list. A pitcher who I would only rank behind Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez in terms of value, it is hard to believe Chris Sale could actually be attainable. He is Giancarlo Stanton‘s pitching counterpart here in Red Sox Nation, a constant source of fantastic speculation, a veritable white whale for Ben Cherington to pursue. And yet, I truly believe even the likes of a superstar like Sale is not off limits to Boston. After the Cubs and perhaps Twins, the Sox have the best farm system in all of baseball, a bountiful garden of young talent, the type of talent that could really flower into something special.

That said, there is a caveat. I am not among those who believe that simply dangling Mookie will be enough to land Sale (probably not even Hamels, although that has as much to do with Ruben Amaro as it does Hamels’ own steep price tag), and I am truly fearful that Swihart or Bogaerts will be the asking price. That would create quite the dilemma as one could make the case that Sale is arguably worth any price, no matter how much I believe in the above mentioned prospects. Sale is one of five players in the history of MLB to see Major League action the same year that he was drafted.

And his results speak for themselves. In that first year, as a 21-year old rookie, Sale pitched 23 innings to a 1.93 ERA. He returned to the bullpen in his second year, his numbers rising slightly across a full season’s worth of action, but still performed astonishingly well, even making appearances in a closing situation at just 22 years of age! He would be converted to a starter the following season and again his ERA understandably went up, but Sale thrived in this new role going 17-8 with a 3.05 ERA alongside a 5.8 WAR and 192 strikeouts in as many innings.

As with Cueto, Sale really emerged this year to his full potential. Still just 25 years old, Sale recorded a 2.17 ERA, .96 WHIP, a 6.6 WAR that ranked just ahead of Cueto, with an absurd 208 strikeouts in only 174 innings (?!?!?!?!?!). Sale has not even entered his prime yet, and while it might be foolish to expect more from the young right hander, the sky is the limit for this fireballer.