Ranking the best free agent pitching targets
Aug 13, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher
Ervin Santana(30) walks off of the field after the sixth inning during their win against the Los Angeles Dodgers batter at Turner Field. The Braves won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Santana represents arguably the best combination of attainability and talent. As we saw last season, most teams are only willing to surrender a draft pick for a top of the market player. Santana was not top of the market in a thinner pitching pool last year, even while coming off a better year. His value is lower this year and with a protected draft pick, the Red Sox will not need to be as thrifty in their acquisitions this offseason. Santana likely represents the best of the second tier options and if the Red Sox only plan to sign one ace, he is the best pitcher available not confined to that ace paradigm.
Likely a number two starter in Boston, Santana put up career numbers as a Royal in 2013. Prior to signing a one year deal with Kansas City (yet another prove-it/flyer deal, for those of you picking up on the recurring theme), he had an up and down (recurring themes all around, but this is Ben Cherington’s prototype!) seven seasons to open his career as an Angel. Very much like Clay Buchholz, Santana has spent much of his career pitching very well, or very poorly, but after two strong seasons with KC and Atlanta, there is reason for optimism.
The source of Santana’s recent success has been attributed to his improved ability to mix up his pitches. The one major concern with him for most of his career was his appalling fly ball rate, and concerning lefty-righty splits, but since the successful implementation of a sinker ball as a Royal he has seen his groundball rate make up substantial ground on his flyball rate and his split stats even out as well. If he resumes his fly ball tendencies, his tenure at Fenway Park could be disastrous (see: Jake Peavy) but if he maintains his results, he represents a far better number 2 starter than we currently have on the roster. And if he is forced to once again settle for a below market deal due to draft pick compensation attached to him, Ben Cherington may pounce on the 31-year old righty.