Taking a look at a potential Red Sox six-man rotation in September

At the MLB Non-Waiver Trade Deadline, the Red Sox found themselves a corner outfielder with the power to bat cleanup in Yoenis Cespedes, and a stumbling 1B/OF who hit .315 as recently as last year who could push Mike Napoli out of Boston or hold down the fort in left field, in Allen Craig. To follow that up, they inked a potential leadoff hitter to a six-year, $72 million deal in the dynamic power/speed threat, Rusney Castillo.

At the season’s midway point, the biggest problem facing Ben Cherington and Co. was a severely under-performing outfield unit that has since been completely rebuilt. The writing may be on the wall for the struggling Daniel Nava and Shane Victorino, and as much as I hate to admit it, I can no longer deny that I have doubts about Jackie Bradley Jr.

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Let’s not forget about Mookie Betts either, who has looked impressive in his month long audition with the Red Sox, highlighted by his role in last night’s trouncing of Chris Archer and the Rays, in which he piled on top of the struggling Archer with a grand slam to put the Red Sox up 8-0. Even with Nava, Victorino and Bradley all being question marks, the Red Sox have four good candidates for their 2015 outfield.

In the process of this upheaval, the Red Sox dealt away their 1-2 rotation punch of Jon Lester and John Lackey and brought aboard up-and-down Cardinals righty, Joe Kelly. Also removed from the equation were struggling back end starters Felix Doubront and Jake Peavy to open up opportunities on the major league roster for promising young starting pitching prospects Rubby De La Rosa, Brandon Workman, Allen Webster and Anthony Ranaudo. Despite impressive showings for Triple-A Pawtucket, the young pitchers have been inconsistent thus far in the big leagues. Here’s a look at the dismal early return on Boston’s new look pitching staff: [table id=3 /] But this is a staff that has an average age of 25.8 years, so there is certainly room to grow and improve as they familiarize themselves with life in the Major Leagues. Here’s a look at what the aforementioned six arms have to offer the Major League club in September and beyond.

Joe Kelly was an interesting trade deadline addition. A buy-low candidate in the same vein as Craig, Kelly cruised to a 2.69 ERA for the Cardinals in 2013 before faltering in 2014 (similar, yet less drastic than Buchholz), putting together a 4.37 ERA in seven starts for the Red Birds before they shipped him and Craig up to Boston for Lackey. Since donning a Red Sox uniform, Kelly has already improved on his St. Louis numbers, compiling a 3.86 ERA in five starts for Boston.

As much as it can be dangerous to remove perceived “flukes” there is one clear outlier in Kelly’s Red Sox outings: a four inning, seven earned run shelling by the lowly Astros. Take away this start and Kelly has allowed five earned runs in 24 innings across four starts. Kelly will not be an ace but he looks more than capable of being a solid third starter or a strong number four. His sinker-ball lends itself to very high groundball rates and he has enough of a secondary repertoire to wring up a few batters and eat innings. Look for the 26-year old to reprise this role in 2015, likely as a mid-rotation arm. Aside from Buchholz, Kelly is the player I am most confident to be given a rotation spot out of camp, barring a trade of course. Kelly may even be given a bit more breathing room than Buchholz given his young age and improved durability, but we have seen how aggressive Ben Cherington is with his team management. If Kelly crashes in his first full season in the competitive AL East, he will find himself shipped back to the National League (as an aside, Jake Peavy took a no hitter 7.1 innings last night and Felix Doubront put together seven strong innings of one-run baseball, for those who don’t believe in the AL/NL disparity).

Aug 24, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Allen Webster (64) reacts as he walks off the mound after being relieved during the fifth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Allen Webster is quickly finding himself in the doghouse once occupied by Jackie Bradley. Fortunately Xander Bogaerts is still reprising the role of most disappointing Red Sox prospect in 2014 in what is rapidly becoming a recurring nightmare for the Player Development group at Fenway. I am of the opinion that it is still to early to write off Webster, but there is legitimate cause for concern if he keeps losing his cool on the mound. Last night’s vengeful pounding by the Rays underscored Webster’s tendency to lose his focus far too easily.

The 24-year old right hander got rocked on the mound and looked to be on the verge of mental collapse by the time Farrell mercifully came to relieve him in the fifth inning. The heat of competition can resemble hellfire in the merciless AL East, and Webster needs to be able to handle all of the stress that comes with playing in these rivalry-fueled matchups. The Logan Forsythe-Dustin Pedroia incident only served to exacerbate Webster’s rattling night but ultimately these incidents are not going to become infrequent occurrences. Voted to have the best sinker ball in the International League, it won’t matter how good Webster’s stuff is if he can’t keep his head in the game.

With all of this in mind, I still have faith in Webster’s talent. We have seen, time and again, pitchers especially taking time to settle in at the Major League level. Among the ERA leaders for 2014, only two players in the top 10 carried a sub 4.00 ERA out of their first full season (Chris Sale and Adam Wainwright), and this list includes Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels and our old friend Lester. Another interesting name on the list is Corey Kluber, who has become this year’s shining example of what a breakout season for a pitcher can look like. While I expect the Red Sox to be players on the market this winter for names like Sale, Lester and Hamels, it would surprise and disappoint me if Allen Webster doesn’t find himself in the back end of the 2015 rotation.

Aug 29, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Anthony Ranaudo (63) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Anthony Ranaudo was recently named International League Pitcher of the Year after dominating for the Pawtucket Red Sox behind a filthy 14-4 record and 2.61 ERA. 2014 has been a career year for the 6’7″ hurler, one that has taken some scouts by surprise. In 2009, Ranaudo was a superstar for LSU in the College World Series, and entered the 2010 season as one of the top MLB Draft Prospects. An elbow injury derailed Ranaudo’s season and after failing to replicate the numbers he posted in the year prior, Ranaudo fell all the way to the Red Sox in the Supplemental 1st Round, where they were happy to take the falling star (as has become their tendency with players like Ranaudo, Devin Marrero and Jackie Bradley in recent years).

Despite this seemingly promising return to form, there are still question marks surrounding Ranaudo. This scouting report from the useful SoxProspects.com sheds light on these question marks highlighted by his lack of depth in his pitch repertoire. Ranaudo has a solid fastball, but is propelled by his plus graded, swing and miss curveball that he consistently uses to send hitters stomping back to the dugout. But he will need to develop a third offering to succeed in Boston.

While Ranaudo has certainly given scouts reason to consider re-evaluating their original reports, his change-up continues to stand as a fringe-average offering that is still too inconsistent from start to start. An effective change-up can be a powerful weapon for a Major League starter, but another option for the righty is to expand on his fastball – if he can learn to integrate a 2-seam, cut or sinking fastball, he may be able to make it. He has survived thus far in August behind a 3-0 record, but his 4.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP are concerning and more concerning are his advanced stats; he currently owns an 89 ERA+ (100 is league average), and 6.57 FIP (suggesting that most of his outs are being recorded by balls in play).

For next year, Ranaudo is in my mind right behind Webster in the pecking order. I think it will depend on how the offseason goes but he could be in line for the fifth rotation spot. If I had to take an educated guess, the Red Sox will add twofront line starters this winter and the five spot will be given to Webster, but Ranaudo could see time as a long man out of the bullpen if the team decides his time is best spent with Boston, with a role similar to Brandon Workman’s last year where he becomes the next man up following an injury. Among the players who will keep Clay Buchholz honest in 2015, Ranaudo tops the list.

Jul 30, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brandon Workman (67) reacts after making a throw to first base during the fifth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Workman is another player who may be on the outside looking in (at least as far as the rotation is concerned) next spring. Often considered something of a borderline prospect, Workman may be destined for a career in relief pitching. He has a good fastball that can light up the radar gun at times, which is part of the reason he may be better suited in the bullpen. He has a great cutter, and solid curveball to round out his offerings.

There is still a chance Workman sticks in the rotation. He has had some strong starts in Boston the last two years but ultimately has yet to be consistent enough to earn a full time role. Workman has especially struggled in 2014 and it appears that this September could be his last chance in the rotation. He doesn’t really have the stuff to prosper as a starter but what he does have is tremendous command of his offerings, strong mental and physical makeup.

All of this only furthers my initial position that he would be a huge asset out of the bullpen (particularly with Tazawa’s recent struggles in the eighth inning). With so many young starters coming through the system, I think it almost makes too much sense to use Workman in the bullpen. He has shown a propensity for bullpen work in the past and I think that it is there that he will be of the most use to the team.

Rubby De La Rosa rounds out the group and presents a unique blend of potential in both starting and relief roles. He possesses a lively fastball that can hit triple digits and has shown the ability to miss bats, a plus-to-better change-up, and a slider that is, at times, deadly and otherwise catches far too much of the plate. De La Rosa’s issues stem from command; when he is commanding his pitches ,he looks like a strong mid-rotation starter.

His 3.81 ERA tells a two sided story that can be expressed by looking at his last nine starts encompassing July and August. Seven of the starts have seen him allow three earned runs or fewer but as for the remaining two, he twice lasted just four innings while allowing six earned runs. This inconsistency is exactly the type of struggle that De La Rosa has seen throughout his career, and it is precisely what could ultimately prevent him from holding a spot in the rotation. If he does not end up in the rotation, he could be a downright lethal weapon at the end of games. He reminds me a lot of Andrew Miller, and if he doesn’t refine his command, then he can be exactly that type of strikeout pitcher out of the bullpen.

But De La Rosa is definitely the wild card. If he puts it all together, he will almost certainly beat out Webster and Ranaudo and claim a spot in the 2015 rotation, but either way I expect him to hold value to the team next year in some capacity.

So that’s everybody! Let me know what you think of the six-man rotation and also who you think has the best shot to contribute in 2015 down below in the comments.