With the caveat that Berra The Yogi was right—“In baseball, you don’t know nothing.”—let’s try to discover stats that will likely allow us to predict something about baseball; especially batters and pitchers.
Have you ever heard this nonsense?
Baseball announcer:
"“Boswell has hit well against the Pirates; his lifetime batting average against Pittsburgh is .455.”"
It’s useless information, Boswell has not been batting against ALL the Pirates for the past 9 years; he hasn’t even been battling against ALL the Pirates’ pitchers.
He HAS had at bats against certain Pirates pitchers over the years, but he has not batted against the Pirate pitcher on the mound in the game today.
>>>POINT: The only relevant stat for Boswell [or any batter] is the one on the mound today; the only potentially valid stat is this batter’s past record against the pitcher he is currently facing in the game today.
Suppose Boswell is facing Ralph Rush in the game against the Pirates. And, to make it interesting, suppose Boswell has faced Rush, when the pitcher was previously with the Phillies and the Mets.
Then, the announcer should be provided all the ABs that Boswell had against Rush, regardless of the team that Rush pitched for.
Also, suppose Boswell has played for other teams as well; then all of his ABs against Rush, regardless of the team Boswell batted for are significant.
Thus, Boswell has had great success against Rush; in 55 total ABs, Boswell has his .455 with 6 HRs, and 22 RBIs.
How many times have you heard a baseball announcer say?
"“Johnson has pitched well against the Red Sox; his lifetime ERA average against them is 2.88.”"
More nonsense.
Johnson has not been pitching against ALL the Red Sox batters for the past five, or more, decades.
He HAS pitched to certain Red Sox batters over the years; he has even pitched against the Boston batter at the plate in this game.
>>>POINT: The only relevant stat for Johnson [or any pitcher] is his past record against the batter he is currently facing in the game today.
Hence:
“Johnson has baffled McDuffy over the years; McDuffy has a career record of just .125 in 64 ABs and has only managed 4 singles and a walk.”
In the Pre-internet Era, print media and TV/radio announcers were provided with “inside” stats by the MLB teams. Today, any fan with internet access, can find out how any batter has fared against any pitcher.
Find the Pitcher’s page on MLB and use the “Batter vs. Pitcher” link and choose the opposing team. EX: we choose the Tampa Bay Rays, a possible WC winner and Sox ALDS opponent.
FELIX DOUBRONT CAREER STATS
Doubront vs.
PLAYER
SEASON
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
IBB
SO
SB
CS
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
Escobar, Yunel20131012000010100.
200
.333.200.533
Jennings, Desmond20131112000020400.
182
.308.182.490
2013201000000000.500.500.5001.000
2013100000000000.000.000.000.000
2013400000000300.000.000.000.000
2013801000010200.125.222.125.347
Longoria, Evan20131124100010300
.364
.417.455.871
2013401000010000.250.400.250.650
Myers, Wil201380
3
000
3
10120.375.444.375.819
201321100
1
100000.500.5002.0002.500
Rodriguez, Sean20131001100100300.
100
.100.200.300
Scott, Luke20131002000110300.
200
.250.200.450
2013812000030210.250.455.250.705TOTAL20138962020161102230.225.314.281.595
While the sample size effects the predictive value, we note that Myers has 3 hits and 3 RBIs; Scott and Rodriguez cannot buy a hit against Doubront; Longoria does well.
Suppose the Sox face Francona’s Indians in the ADLS and the Game One starters are Lester and Jimenez.
To find out how the Sox batters fared against Jimenez, you would start on the Indians’ team page:
http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/index.jsp?c_id=cle
Click on the ROSTER choice at the top of the page and you are here:
http://indians.mlb.com/team/roster_active.jsp?c_id=cle
Find Jimenez and click on his name and you are here:
http://indians.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=434622#gameType=%27R%27
Scroll down to about the first ¼ of the page and find:
UBALDO JIMENEZ CAREER STATS
Click on the last choice “Batter vs. Pitcher” and you will see:
UBALDO JIMENEZ CAREER STATS
Jimenez vs. [CHOOSE]
Please choose an opposing team or player to see results.
Use the drop-down menu to select the Boston Red Sox.
Bingo! You have a list of the Sox batters and their stats against Jimenez:
PLAYER
SEASON
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
IBB
SO
SB
CS
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
2013000000100000–.000–.000
2013201000100010.500.500.5001.000
2013512100010100.400.500.6001.100
2013010000010000–1.000–1.000
2013010000010000–1.000–1.000
20131111000000001.0001.0002.0003.000
2013100000000100.000.000.000.000
2013100000110000.000.500.000.500
2013010000110000–1.000–1.000
2013100000010000.000.500.000.500TOTAL20131154200460210.364.556.5451.101
Given the small number of ABs, there isn’t much of stat value here.
Now you know how each Boston batter did against this pitcher.
We found Lester’s page and discovered that Asdrubal Cabrera “owns” Lester with a .571 BA, 4 for 7.
| Cabrera, Asdrubal | 2013 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .571 | .571 | .714 | 1.286 |
We also noted that Lester has not given up a HR against the primary batting order.
Also, Lester “owns” Mark Reynolds:
| Reynolds, Mark | 2013 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .231 | .333 | .385 | .718 |
Since, with a large enough sample of ABs, it should be more predictive of performance, you may find that you can anticipate–even predict–how a Red Sox batter might hit during a particular game in 3 or 4 ABs against a certain starter.
Why do some batters “own” certain pitchers?
We will speculate on that question in our next article:
“Why do some batters “own” certain pitchers?”
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