Valentine: Verily Versatile Virtuoso and His “Tres Amigos”
By Earl Nash
If Bobby Valentine cannot have an All-Star shortstop, or even Jed Lowrie or Marco Scutaro, what would his second choice be?
A: He might answer with one of his favorite words: “versatility.”
Besides himself, Valentine has three guys who can play SS and each brings a different skill set to the game. We can rate “Los Tres Amigos“—Aviles, Punto, Iglesias—with the help of John Dewan, whose third volume of his Fielding Bible has just been released.
He was at JetBlue Park today to promote his book and in an interview with Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal, he had this to say about the defense of the Sox SS Triad:
“Aviles would project at minus 3 runs for the year, Punto at 0 [zero], Punto is a good defensive player — better than Aviles. Punto has been good at third, good at short, good at second. He might only be an average shortstop because the shortstop position requires the most athleticism and the most skill.”
For a thorough course in evaluating and calculating a player’s defensive values, get the book; for our purposes, let’s say that a “0” rating means that Punto has no effect on “runs saved,” while Aviles’ -3 means he would cost you a total of 3 runs on defense during the entire season. [or 0.019 runs per game.]
Although Dewan did not offer a score for Iglesias, since he is considered a Gold Glove candidate by most scouts, especially at the shortstop position, we will arbitrarily award him a score of +1 runs saved. [If you are an M.I.T. student: take a chill pill.]
Dewan concurs with scouts and pundits in doubting the offensive impact of Iglesias:
"“Iglesias, his (offensive) projection does not look very good so far…Aviles is a much better hitter.”"
Aviles and Punto have MLB career BA records, .288 and .249, respectively, while Iglesias is a statistical mixed bag: MLB, .333 based on just 6 ABs; his Minor league BAs are inconsistent: in 2010 combined A/AA 261 ABs and .295 BA and in 2011 at AAA in 357 ABs, just a .235 BA.
We can combine the two years and get 618 ABs, weigh each year equally and get an average BA of .265 and know that a math guy like Dewan would use his sharp pencil and come up with a lower BA, say, .258. But, since Punto’s most recent MLB BA was .278 with the Cardinals and, since it is difficult to translate Minor league stats [especially A and AA numbers] into MLB equivalencies and that AAA numbers would likely be closer to an MLB equivalency, let’s use the 2011 .235 BA as the stat for Iglesias. [If you are an M.I.T. student: take another chill pill and call your shrink immediately.]
We will stipulate that Iglesias may develop as a hitter and have a career BA of better than .249, but we are forced to consider a ranking for 2012 only and, until Iglesias can prove that his MLB BA of .333 is legit, we can assume that Valentine would be more likely to send Punto to the plate; add in that Punto is a switch-hitter. And, we cite the opinion of the aforementioned expert, author of the Fielding Bible.
On offense, using “career” BA as our criteria, we have this ranking:
"Aviles .288Punto .249Iglesias .235"
On defense, we will use Dewan’s expert rankings of Aviles and Punto and add our own guess:
"Iglesias +1Punto 0Aviles -3"
While this looks like a big point spread, consider we are talking about the total number of defensive runs a player would give up over the course of an entire season.
Betwixt the three contenders we see that Aviles is the clear winner on offense with Punto in second and Iglesias in third; the list turns on its head for defense with Iglesias much better than Aviles and Punto in second again.
What to do?
Let’s ask the expert, John Dewan: “Who would you start at short?”
“This is where the numbers don’t necessarily tell you everything. The coaches can go out there and work with them, see if he’s made progress, see if he’s regressing negatively.”
Uh, John, the envelope please…
“But based on the numbers, I’d take a little bit of a defensive hit and play Aviles at shortstop.”
[“defensive hit“? Nice one, John!]
OK, we have our rankings in place and the opinion of a recognized expert; now, let’s surmise how our strategy savant, “Bobby Baseball,” will take full advantage of the versatility of these three players with varying skill sets.
Although Mr. Valentine can be an out-of-the-box thinker [SEE: no wind-up delivery], we will assume he plays along with the statistically unsupported baseball ritual of loading your batting order with hitters opposite the opposing pitcher’s throwing arm; to wit, facing a RHP, you get those left-handed batters in your lineup. [We suspect that Mr. Valentine may look at the BA splits vs. the pitching opponent for that day, but that’s for another discussion.]
So, the Sox are opening up in Detroit against a RHP named Verlander [2006 AL Rookie of the Year; 2011: AL Cy Young, ML Major League Player of the Year, AL MVP, AL Triple Crown*,
AL TSN Pitcher of the Year.] *pitchers must lead the league in wins, strikeouts, and earned run average (ERA). [But, not the hitting Triple Crown! Carl Yastrzemski was the last offensive Triple Crown winner in 1967. Ted Williams won it twice in 1942 and 1947.
Theoretically, Valentine would put a LH hitting SS in his starting lineup; since Punto is a switch-hitter and Aviles and Iglesias are RH batters, Valentine would give the nod to Punto. If the Tigers switch to a LHP, Valentine can pull LH batting Punto and PH with RH hitter Aviles. If he is leading in the game in the 8th inning, Valentine can opt to upgrade on D with Iglesias; if Aviles is not likely to bat in the top of the 9th, Iglesias likely goes in at SS for the 8th and 9th innings.
That works in theory, but expect Aviles to start at SS on Opening Day and most games against RHPs.
Theoretically, if the Sox are facing a LHP, the “book” says bat your RH hitting SS and, since Punto is a switch-hitter and Aviles and Iglesias are RH batters, Valentine gives the nod to Aviles. If the Tigers switch to a RHP, Valentine can pull RH batting Aviles and PH with switch-hitter Punto. If he is leading in the game in the 8th inning, Valentine can opt to upgrade on D with Iglesias; if Punto is not likely to bat in the top of the 9th, Iglesias likely goes in at SS for the 8th and 9th innings.
If Youk is injured, or just needs a day of rest, Valentine can put Aviles at SS and Punto at 3b, or the reverse and have Iglesias in the dugout for late inning D at SS. If Pedroia is on the DL or needs a day of rest, Valentine can run Punto in at second.
Now, unless you can show Sox fans that Pedroia cannot hit a certain pitcher, you never pinch hit for the man; Sox fans don’t care if the opposing manager brings in a RHP from the pen; even if he brings in a pitcher who is ambidextrous, a hermaphrodite, transgender, or, as Berra the Yogi says, “amphibious,” Peedy steps into the box.
Anybody who has ever played Fantasy baseball knows that versatility, that UT guy, who can play 2b, SS and 3b [Punto] is worth his weight in copper and having three guys on your roster who can ALL play SS, and one guy [Aviles] who can play SS, 3b and OF, is a fantasy wet dream come true.
Bobby Valentine knows all about the “versatile” player in MLB; it was that attribute that allowed him to play the majors for a decade [1969-79] and he played every position on defense, but never pitched.
Get this, games started: 3b [94], SS [95], 2b [96], 1b [14], LF [74], CF [13], RF [22], and, yes, wait for it: he replaced the starting catcher in two games.
After ten years as a player, manning every defensive position, Valentine sat down in the dugout and managed in MLB for 25 years [1985-2002]; then he managed in Japan for eight years, learned to speak Japanese, worked as an expert commentator for ESPN [in English, mostly] and returned to MLB with the Red Sox.
MEMO to self: When the Red Sox clinch the pennant season, send fax to Fenway, suggesting that Valentine activate himself for a game, preferably against the Yankees, and complete his cycle by starting a game.
MEMO to Bobby Baseball: Until you pitch in a Major league game, leave the pitching instruction for the staff to McClure.
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Photo credit: Boston.com
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