2012 Projections: Josh Beckett to Have Similar Year
Josh Beckett finally woke up from his long winter slumber and joined his buddy Kevin Millar on Intentional Talk, a MLB Network show to discuss last season. He talked about his poor performances in September, the beer, the chicken and his new father duties that have kept him busy during the off season. With pitchers set to report in less than two weeks it seems only fitting that we look at Beckett’s projected numbers for the upcoming season. And as you’ll see he’s in line for a similar year to last, begging the question, can the Red Sox win with a sub-par Josh Beckett?
Last season Beckett looked like the Beckett of old, at least for the first half of the season. He looked poised on the mound and at times looked unhittable. Remember the Sunday night performance in Tampa Bay when he held the Rays scoreless through eight innings? Or how about his brilliant outing in Boston against the Yankees, not once but three times against C.C. Sabathia. He stymied the Yanks during two of those outings, holding them to three hits or less.
But as the season wore on, Beckett started to become mediocre and in the end he looked out of shape and couldn’t control his fastball or get his curveball to move.
Yet he still had decent numbers. 13-7 record, 2.89 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 over 193. Consider he had seven no decisions, five in which he surrendered less than three runs and he could have had a career year. In a way he still did when you look at his stats. He had career bests in ERA, WHIP and hits per 9 innings.
But that was last year and Beckett has to once again give his ball club the opportunity to win every fifth night in 2012.
His numbers are very similar. RotoChamp has him going 13-9 with a higher ERA of 3.89, a WHIP of 1.15, 8.22 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 all through 185.0 innings.
Here are the positives. First, the amount of innings projected, the good people at fangraphs.com see Josh staying relatively healthy, another must if the Red Sox have any hope of contending in the AL East. His WHIP is again great, as his strikeout and walk ratio.
The concerning areas are the higher ERA that is up a full run over last season. But consider that Beckett’s career ERA is 3.84 we shouldn’t be alarmed. The second is his record. While a pitcher’s record is less scrutinized these days and the possibilities of no decisions we maybe shouldn’t hold too much merit with only 13 wins.
Given the offense behind him and how Beckett can harness his inner strength to remain calm and cool, he should be able to win 17 starts. Of course that is given that this high powered offense doesn’t fall cold when Beckett takes the mound. If John Lackey can win 14 games two years ago with an ERA similar to his waste size, then let’s pray the offense can do it for Josh.
For most of the season last year Josh Beckett looked like the ace of the staff that we had tagged him with in the past. The beer gate scandal is behind the Red Sox and now with Josh clearing the air on it, the focus is on the 2012 season. And it’s safe to say that we can expect the Josh Beckett that we saw for the first half of last season.
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