2012 Projections: Jacoby Ellsbury’s numbers to decline

He’s the biggest name on the Red Sox heading into the 2012 season and rightfully so.  Jacoby Ellsbury could do no wrong last year and because of it he saw a nice raise when he signed a one-year deal worth $8.05 million to avoid arbitration.  While a long-term deal is up in the air for the future, Ellsbury is still under the team’s control for two more years which will give him the opportunity to prove that the 2011 was no fluke.

But according to Bill James’ projections, Ellsbury will take a step back this year.  It’s hard to fathom that he could duplicate last year only because he typically doesn’t hit for that kind of power.  So to smash 32 long balls was remarkable.  After the jump you’ll see that his projections are down for this upcoming year.

First let’s look at last year’s offensive line: 32 homers, 105 RBI, 119 runs scored, 39 stolen bases, .321 BA, .376 OBp and a .552 SLG.  These were MVP type numbers and a second place showing in the voting confirms the career year for Ellsbury.

As I said, for him to replicate these stats would be considered one of the greatest back-to-back years in baseball history I’m sure.  So it’s no surprise to see his 2012 projections drop, but it’s to the level that James has them drop to that I don’t agree with.

He has Ellsbury playing 158 games which is promising after missing all but 18 games two years ago.  His batting average is projected at .304 which is still good despite being 17 points lower than last year.  His OBP is also lower at .362 and his SLG is way down at .476 as a result of the projected 19 home runs.  His RBI total is set at 72 and his runs scored at 102.  Of course these numbers are likely projected with the thought that he’ll be hitting lead off, which is yet to be set in stone.

While I’m ok with the number of long balls being projected (Ellsbury may not be a 30 home run guy every year) I do struggle with a few of the others.  First, his batting average to me is low.  He’s projected to get 178 hits down from his 212 last year.  Also down in that mix are his doubles from 46 to 34.  This guy can flat out hit.  He’s got the raw talent and now the confidence to easily reach 200 hits again this year.  While Ellsbury may not win the batting title, I do think he’ll hit well over .300 and could finish around .320-.330, resulting in a higher OBP and SLG.  So to avoid taking up more space let’s say those numbers will naturally be higher.

The second projection I struggle with is the RBI total.  Just 72 RBI following 102 doesn’t sit well.  Granted the 72 total would be the second highest of his career, but I don’t believe last year was a fluke.  This kid can hit and he can produce. He’s going to be a star for a long time in this league including next year.  Reaching the 100 RBI plateau might be a stretch, but producing 92 RBI is certainly within reason.

A final projection that may be low is the amount of stolen bases at 38.  Last year Ellsbury swiped 39 bags and it was considered low for him, especially when you consider he stole 70 and 50 respectively in years prior to 2010.  He can wreak havoc on the base paths and the Red Sox need him to continue to do so.  With the type of year he had in 2011, opposing teams are going to be a little more careful how they pitch to the all-star center fielder resulting in more walks and a higher OBP.  Thus giving him the chance to steal more bags and in turn be more effective for his club.  Of course if he’s hitting anywhere but lead off he may not need to steal more, but he’s most effective when he’s running.  Keep in mind he only had 39 thefts because he hit so many long balls last year and didn’t as many opportunities to run.

I’m going to go against the guru Bill James and say his projections are low. Call me crazy but this is a contract year so to speak for Ellsbury and we know what athletes typically do performance wise when they know they could garner a substantial raise following the year.  Look for Ellsbury to have another productive season, just not to the tune of 2011.  That was crazy good.

What’s your thoughts on Ellsbury’s upcoming year?  Take part in our latest poll and let your voice be heard.

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