URGENT MEMO TO BEN: magazine says Yanks better than Sox, STAT!

“It’s way too early to predict the 2012 season.” say the experts.

But, here in Red Sox Nation, it’s never too soon to start arguing about whether the Sox are better than the Yankees and, since the first 2012 baseball forecast magazine, Lindy’s Sports Fantasy Baseball 2012, hit the shelves this week, we now have 144 pages of fuel for our Red Sox Hot Stove.

Besides, comparing stats and relative strengths and weaknesses may even suggest areas for the Sox to address via trade and FA signings before Opening Day. And, provide “probable cause” to send a fax to my pal, Ben Cherington!

Examples for Ben:1. According to the Linzy ratings, the Sox are screwed at SS; the offensive production gap between Jeter and Scutaro is huge and there are no apparent options for improvement.2. The RF position will be below league average for HRs.  3. Sox should NOT use their newly-signed FA RHP, Vicente Padilla, to fill the #5 rotation slot, since they would be much better with Alfredo Aceves leaving the pen in that role.

Sox fans can hope that the Yanks are content, after they pulled off their most significant trade, acquiring Micheal Pineda, one of the Top Ten AL starters in the AL, to fit in the rotation behind C. C. Sabbathia and an important FA signing with Hideki Kuroda, who can slide into the #3 slot behind Pineda or #4 slot behind Hughes.  We can also hope that the Yankees do not sign Carlos Pena to platoon at DH with Andruuw Jones.

Today’s Red Sox trade rumors  were focused on RHPs Vicente “El Viejo” Padilla and Roy “My Back, Oh!” Oswalt, who is willing to take a one-year deal, until the Sox signed Padilla, giving them a proven RHP as the # 5 spot starter behind the Front Four: Lester, Beckett, Bucholz and Bard. 

[NOTE TO BEN:  Stats say Padilla is a much worse choice than Aceves.]

Today, let’s borrow a friend’s cell phone and take a team snapshot of the Sox and the Yankees to see how they compare. To maintain a level field for evaluation by position we will use the rankings in the Lindy’s magazine; thus a lower number is better, as being the 5th best 2b is way better than being the 25th best. The dollar values assigned for fantasy auctions will be ignored, but the stats and scouting reports will be applied. [When Lindy’s did not provide a rating for a player, I used career stats to find an equivalent player and used his rating number (*); when I thought the rating was off significantly, I put a (?).]

Catchers: Martin #10 vs.  Saltalamacchia #28

If we factor in the defense, Martin clearly has an edge. Yes, Lavarnway and Shoppach will see some action behind the plate, but not enough to tilt the 13 point difference.

First basemen: Teixeira #5 vs. Gonzalez #2 [Pujols #1]

Second basemen: Cano #1  vs. Pedroia #2

Third basemen: A-Rod #7 vs. Yook #8

[Lindy’s Top 6: Longoria, Beltre, Lawrie, Wright, Zimmerman, Sandoval]

Shortstop: Jeter #9 vs. Scutaro #30 ??? [SEE BELOW]

LF: Gardiner #23 vs. Crawford #20

CF: Granderson #5 vs. Ellsbury #3 [Lindy’s rates Kemp #1 and Bautista #2]

RF: Swisher #27   Sweeney/McDonald #44*

DH: Yanks combo #15*  vs. Ortiz/Lavarnway 14*

ED. NOTE:  While it is feasible the say that Jeter is a higher ranked SS than Scutaro, is Lindy’s accurate, when it rates Jeter the 7th best SS in MLB and Scutaro as low as the 30th?  The stat comparison indicates that Linzy’s gap is too wide:                Avg     Obp    Slg    Ops   2B%   HR%  R%   RBI%  SB%   BB%JETER       .313     .383   .449  832    4.5    2.2      16.1   10.9   3.1   9.0      SCUTARO .270     .338   .389  727    5.1    1.6      12.9     9.7   1.1   9.3       OFFENSE SCORE: YANKEES 102 RED SOX 151[NOTE: Higher number is worse than lower.] So, if it was a single game score [rounding off the numbers] the Sox lose: 15-10.

But, we have only scored the offense; now let’s see how the pitching stacks up:

STARTERS:
1.C. Sabathia 9
2. M. Pineda 19
3. H. Kuroda 58
4. P. Hughes 60
5. I. Nova 82?

1. J. Lester 12
2. J. Beckett 21
3. C. Buchholz 54
4. D. Bard 58*
5. A. Aceves 60* [ V. Padilla 99*]

STARTERS TOTALS: YANKEES   228    RED SOX 205[NOTE: Lower numbers are better.] So, if it was a single game score 2.28 runs to 2.05 runs; the Sox win by less than a run.

BULLPEN:
• M. Rivera 2 vs.  A. Bailey 15
• R. Soriano 22  vs. Melancon 20

BULLPEN TOTALS: YANKEES 24    RED SOX 35[NOTE: Higher numbers are worse than lower.]So, if it was a single game score 3.5 to 2.4 the Yanks win by about one run.

In sum:
Yankees win the offensive category: 102 to 151
Red Sox win the starting pitching category: 228 to 205
Yankees win the bullpen category: 24 to 35

Yankees win the total team category: 354 to 391

SUB-TEXT BELOW THE STATS
Eschewing Jamesian complications, to get simple numbers similar to “baseball game score,” we could move the decimal point thusly: 3.54 and 3.91. Using Rounding off, we get: 3.5 or 3 ½ runs and 3.9 or just a tick under 4 runs. In terms of a score in a game, it appears the Yankees lead the Red Sox, 4 to 3 1/2, or about half a run—a very close game score between the two AL rivals.

So, let’s try to sharpen our forecast by drilling down to issues that lie below the stats.
We can make adjustments by answering these questions:

Q: Can Kuroda find success switching leagues and home parks?
“Pitchers do better moving from the American League to the National League (as expected). In some cases, the changes are extremely significant…Overall, a pitcher moving from the AL to the NL would see his ERA drop by about 0.41 points. [http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-statistical-impact-of-switching-leagues-for-pitchers/]
”A study of the last 10 seasons shows that the ERA of a pitcher who ended one season in the NL and began the following season in the AL climbed by an average of 0.46.” [Clay Dreslough, Baseball Mogul Company]

A: It seems like Kuroda is losing out, until we consider that the AL has a higher ERA than the NL. Projecting Kuroda back to 2011 [3.45 + 0.46 = 3.91] Kuroda would have been ranked as the 24th best AL pitcher in 2012, by Bill James, just ahead of Derek Holland [16-5] and just behind Phillip Humber [9-9]. BTW, Pineda ranked 21 and Nova ranked 22.

Kuroda gets a minus for changing home fields: Yankee Stadium is a more hitter friendly park (ranking #6) than Dodger Stadium (ranking #22), compared to all 30 MLB parks.

Scouts note: he doesn’t walk batters; he does strike out batters. He gets the ball on the ground and he mixes his pitches.

Q: Does Pineda gain or lose an edge by switching home parks?
Pineda gets a big minus for changing home fields: Yankee Stadium is a more hitter friendly park (ranking #6) than Safeco Park (ranking #26), compared to all 30 MLB parks.

Q: In RF will Swisher be that much better than Sweeney?

BA OBP SLG OBA     HR per ABs     RBI per ABs
Swisher  .254 .360 .466 .826           20.02                  6.28
Sweeney .283 .342 .378 .720         108.22                   8.96

A: YES!  It takes Sweeney over 5 times as many at-bats to hit a HR than Swisher.

Q: Should the Sox use the less-experienced Aceves, or the hoary veteran, Padilla in the #5 slot?
Using Lindy’s as a guide, our estimate puts Aceves 39 points BETTER than Padilla and makes the biggest difference between the final totals; with Aceves in #5, the Yankees just edge the Sox 351 to 376, while with Padilla that gap increases to 351 to 415, a swing of 39 points.

While El Viejo Padilla has 13 seasons of experience at starting and Aceves has started just 9 games and has tossed a total of just 240 innings in 4 years, he was 10-2 last year for the Sox with a  2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 2011.  Comparing career stats, Aceves is much, much better.

Aceves:  2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

Padilla:  4.31 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Wear and tear factor: the veteran Padilla started 237 games and logged 1553 innings.

Q: Would the platoon of Ortiz and Lavarnway at DH out produce the Yankees Committee DH?
The arrival of Eduardo Nunez, who played both short and third in 2011, gives Girardi the flex to DH-rest 38-year-old Derek Jeter and 36-year-old Alex Rodriguez who missed 94 games combined in 2011.

Andrew Jones does well against LHP; his 2011 Stats:.247/.356/.495, 13 HR, 33 RBI, in 190 at-bats; he would project to 34 home runs and 87 RBIs, assuming his ABs doubled to near 500 in 2012 with the retirement of Posada and the departure of Jesus Montero.

The Yanks could buy a one, or two-year DH specialist like Carlos Pena. Although Peña can’t hit left-handed pitchers, his career slashline [.255/.370/.513] against right-handed pitchers.

As Jones’ Platoon Partner, Pena could project .230 with a .360 OBP, 29 home runs and 83 RBI, pulling Maris-like rainbow arcs into the Yankee Stadium right field porch. With Jones at DH against the LHPs and Pena at DH for the RHPs, the platoon DH could achieve: 13+29 = 43 HRs and 33+83 = 116 RBIs.

Aging A-Rod [36] will soon become less nimble at the Hot Corner and, with the younger Teixeira ensconced at First, a short term contract with Pena would keep DH bench seat warm for Rodriguez.

Comparing the Pena/Jones platoon [43 HRs, 116 RBIs] with the Ortiz/Lavarnway hybrid DH [31 HRs, 104 RBIs] gives an edge to New York, but with a player they do not own as of this writing.

Today’s Yankee DH rumor is about Native-American Johnny Damon taking a Farewell HOF Candidate Tour to with the Yankees. A .286 average and 231 home-runs are not your typical Hall of Fame stats, but he is only the 11th player in MLB history to hit at least 500 doubles, 100 triples, 200 homers, and 2,500 hits. He joined some great HOF names on that list; including Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, George Brett, Stan Musial, and Willie Mays. Yet unsigned, Damon enters his 18th year in MLB with 2723 hits, 277 short of the magic 3000; with a 182 hits per-season average, he would need two more years and/or at least 1250 ABs to have a shot.

Since Damon bats about the same from both sides of the plate [.283 vs. RHP; .294 vs. LHP], he can fit into a platoon with Jones for the Yanks, or Sweeney with the Red Sox.

Damon and Pena aside, combining Andrew Jones (projected @ 500 ABs: 34 HRs, 87 RBIs) and adding Romine and Cervelli to the total the Yanks would have 38 HRs and 109 RBIs. Combining the 2011 output for Ortiz and Lavarnway we got: 31 HRs, 104 RBIs.
At this juncture, the Yankees have slightly better production from their DH slot.

Q: Where are the biggest offensive gaps between the Yankees and the Sox?
While most gaps are 3 or less points, the spread at C, SS, and RF are the most stunning.

C: Martin #10 Saltalamacchia #28 = -18 for the SoxSS Jeter #9 Scutaro #30 = -21 for the SoxRF Swisher #27 Sweeney/McDonald #44* = -17 for the Sox

These wide gaps suggest that the Red Sox need to upgrade at C, SS, and RF.

C:  Giving more starts and ABs to Ryan Lavarnway is a tempting idea, but he is a RHB and 3/4 of the pitchers he would face are RHPs.  Salty, a switch-hitter, would be the logical choice to bat against RHPs, leaving Lavarnway just 25% of the starts.

However, it is intriguing to note that, in 2011 with the Sox, Lavarnway in his 39 ABs vs. both RH and LH starters hit better against  LHPs, .278 and just .190  vs. RHPs.

With the Sox signing Salty to just a one-year contract, it could mean that they have committed  t0 Lavarnway as their starting catcher and he will get most of the starts in 2011 with Salty starting against the LHPs.  Or, according to my sharp Bosox Injection colleague, Derek Stykalo, it could mean the opposite:

“[The] one-year deal worth $2.5 million.  The deal is non-guaranteed and is considerably higher than what some were predicting Salty would earn.  Matt Swartz of MLBTR had Salty in the range of $1.6 million for next season so needless to say Saltalamacchia is getting a nice raise. The signing and substantial raise shows the Red Sox have the confidence in Saltalamacchia despite not living up to his hype and attention he was given when he was with the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers.”[https://bosoxinjection.com/2012/01/16/red-sox-believe-in-saltalmacchia-avoid-arbitration/#more-13063]

For more insight about Salty and the Sox, see Derek Stykalo, my astute colleague’s, post today: <a title=”Permanent Link to 2012 Projections: “2012 Projections: Jarrod Saltalamacchia” and “Red Sox believe in Saltalmacchia & avoid arbitration” [https://bosoxinjection.com/]

For a peek at Boston’s catching prospects in the minor leagues, we turn to the seedling savants, who expertly assess prospects on our sister sight, Seedlings 2 Stars [http://seedlingstostars.com/], are high on Lavarnnway:

“Ryan Lavarnway. Lavarnway came in at #53 on the top 100. That’s possibly overzealous, but he’s certainly a good bet to be a solid asset to the Red Sox starting from day one of the 2012 season. You don’t often find a catcher capable of hitting .295/.390/.612 in the International League, after all. Lavarnway is a Mike Napoli sort of hitter with excellent home run power and plate discipline. While he’s often knocked for his mobility behind the plate, nobody questions his arm strength, as he gunned down 37% of base stealers last year. The rest of his catching game is improving and he could approach average in those aspects. It’s easy to see him as a Napoli-esque player. Grade: B+” [http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/01/13/s2s-2012-team-prospect-lists-boston-red-sox/]“#1.) Christian Vasquez, C. An impressive young defensive catcher, Vasquez surprised many by finding a power stroke in Low-A this year, hitting .283/.358/.505 as a 20-year-0ld. He’s got a plus arm behind the plate and a good approach at it, and while he’s small and not very projectable, he looks like he could be a better version of Kurt Suzuki. Grade: B#2.) Blake Swihart, C. Swihart combines with Lavarnway and Vasquez to give the Sox an embarrassment of riches behind the plate. The 26th overall pick in the draft, he’s completely untested, but he could evolve into a solid two-way force in his own right. Grade: B-” [http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/01/13/s2s-2012-team-prospect-lists-boston-red-sox/]

Accepting my learned colleagues assessments of the [above] C prospects in the Sox organization, it is clear that they both are “a few years away” from Fenway.

SHORTSTOP:
With the trade of Jed Lowrie, an offensive improvement at SS is not in the Boston organization, since Jose Iglesias, 5’ 11,” 175lbs, known for his Gold Glove defense, was weak on offense in AAA: in 101 games, 357 ABs, .235 BA, 1 HR, 31 RBIs, 35 Rs. [His .333 BA with the Sox is based on just 6 ABs.]

On 1/3/2012, the Sox signed former Pirate space-saver Pedro Ciriaco, who “has good speed and defensive ability, but he can’t hit at all.”

As usual shortstops, never mind hitting shortstops, are in short supply in MLB and only THREE FAs are available, according to MLB FA Tracker are:

Ryan Theriot 2011: 1 HR, .271 BA, 47 RBI, in 442 ABs.
Edgar Renteria 2011: 5 HR, .251 BA, 36 RBI, in 299 ABs. [35 years old]
Ronny Cedeno [negotiating 1-year deal with Mets]

Scutaro’s 162 game career averages: 10 HRs, .270 BA, 59 RBI, in 553 ABs.
are lower than his stats last year, 2011: 7 HRs, .299 BA, 54 RBI, in 395 ABs
So, upgrading from Marco Scutaro at SS from the above FA list looks hopeless.

With the light hitting Iglesias as a Gold Glove late inning defensive replacement, the Sox also have an adequate backup at SS with Mike Aviles:

                       Avg       Obp    Slg    Ops  

AVILES       .288       .318    .419   .737

SCUTARO   .270       .338   .389   .727

RF:
Still available MLB FA RFs are down to EIGHT, according to MLB FA Tracker:

Mike Baxter 2011: 1 HR, .235 BA, 4 RBI, in 42 ABs.
Kosuke Fukudome 2011: 5 HR, .245 BA, 22 RBI, in 237 ABs.
Cole Garner 2011: 0 HR, .222 BA, 3 RBI, in 365 ABs.
Magglio Ordonez 2011: 5 HR, .255 BA, 32 RBI, in 329 ABs. [38 years old]
Ryan Spilborghs 2011: 3 HR, .210 BA, 22 RBI, in 200 ABs.
Former Red Sox:
Jeremy Hermida 2011: 1 HR, .225 BA, 6 RBI, in 40 ABs.
J.D. Drew [not going there]
Johnny Damon 2011: 3 HR, .210 BA, 22 RBI, in 200 ABs.
[CF, could play RF]
16 HR, .286 BA, 73 RBI, in 636 ABs. [NOTE: 162G career avg.]

The former Red Sock and Yankee, switch-hitting, Johnny Damon might be the best of that shallow, tepid pool of FA LFs.

Another rumor says the Sox might want to sign former Rockies’ OF prospect Ryan Spilborghs to platoon with Sweeney.  Their stats are close and hits both LHP and RHPs well and Ryan Spilborghs  has more power than Sweeney.  His stats took a down dive in 2011 [SEE slashline below right >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

In house the Sox have prospect Ryan Kalish:
12 HR, .252 2BA, 73 RBI, in 498 ABs. [NOTE: 162G career avg.]
but Sweeney is also a LHB.

While Sweeney/McDonald RF combo creates a huge gap with the current Yankees RF [Swisher #27 vs. Sweeney/McDonald #44* = -17 for the Sox], combining the 162G career avg. for LHB Kalish and [2011 stats]for RHB McDonald 6 HR, .236 BA, 24 RBI, in 157 ABs, yields 18 HR, .255 BA, 97 RBI, in 655 ABs.

Sweeney 5 HR, .283 BA, 58 RBI, in 520 ABs [162G career avg.]
McDonald 6 HR, .236 BA, 24 RBI, in 157 ABs [2011 stats]

Sweeney/McDonald Combo: 11 HR, .271 BA, 82 RBI, in 677 ABs
Vs.
Kalish/McDonald Combo: 18 HR, .255 BA, 97 RBI, in 655 ABs

The comparison of the two RF combos indicates that there is a trade off between power and BA; Kalish/McDonald bats 16 points lower in BA, but produces 7 more HRs and 15 more RBIs for the season. Both combos are weakened by McDonald, who bats only .255 with little power, but improves to .267 against LHPs.

Putting Johnny Damon, the best of the FA OF lot in RF for the full season [no platoon] would project to:
16 HR, .286 BA, 73 RBI, in 636 ABs. [NOTE: 162G career avg.]
vs.
11 HR, .271 BA, 82 RBI, in 677 ABs [Sweeney/McDonald Combo]
vs.
18 HR, .255 BA, 97 RBI, in 655 ABs [Kalish/McDonald Combo]

Conclusions of a Red Sox fan:Unless the Sox find ways to improve at catcher, shortstop, and RF, it looks like they will finish behind the Yankees in 2012.With the Orioles and Blue Jays unlikely to sign Fielder, the AL East looks like at three-team race.All things being equal for 2012, except the Sox avoid a September Swoon, the Sox should edge the Rays for the AL Wild Card slot.If the Texas Rangers sign Prince Fielder and take the AL West pennant, the Red Sox may be facing a serious challenge in the AL Championship Playoffs.‘One magazine does not a season forecast make.’

Tossed into the Red Sox Hot Stove fire, the  144-page “Lindy’s Sports Fantasy Baseball 2012” magazine’s  burn time is about 82 seconds.

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