Free Agent Roy Oswalt: Worth a One-Year Risk?
The time has come for Roy Oswalt to test the free agent waters after politely waiting while Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson took center stage during the winter meetings. With both free agent starters finding homes elsewhere, the attention will turn to Oswalt as he remains one of the remaining headliners in a relatively weak pool of free agent pitchers.
The Red Sox have had interest since the beginning of the off season and Ben Cherington has met several times with Oswalt’s agent. As Jerry Crasnick of ESPN first reported, Oswalt has lowered his asking price from a three-year deal to just a one-year contract, which has increased the interest in the former NLCS MVP. But is Roy Oswalt worth the risk of a one-year deal for the Red Sox?
Oswalt, 34, is coming of a mediocre season with the Philadelphia Phillies that saw him sidelined on the DL twice thanks to lingering back issues. This is the biggest concern attached to Oswalt and perhaps the biggest reason why he hasn’t been offered a three-year deal to date. As Crasnick reports, Oswalt wants a one-year deal so he can prove he’s healthy enough to compete at the elite level and still be effective. Should he be able to do that his plan is to enter free-agency again after next season, where it is there he would seek a multi-year deal.
He made $16 million last season with the Phillies so it’s absurd to think that he’ll get anywhere near that now. But with a reported six teams now showing interest, Oswalt’s price tag may have gone up. Projected numbers are around $8-$9 million per season with the Blue Jays, Royals, Twins and Nationals among the teams involved.
So is he worth the risk? Should the Red Sox sign the veteran for one year and help solidify the rotation? He’d be a number four starter at best, but does bring an experienced career and leadership quality to a club that lacked any direction in the last couple months of the 2011 season. From that point of view he’s a great signing.
Last season Oswalt went 9-10 with a 3.69 ERA in 139.0 innings of work. His WHIP of 1.338 was a career worst for him and his strikeout ratio of 6.0 per 9 innings was also a career low. His best years are well behind him, referring to that of the 2004 and 2005 seasons when Oswalt won 20 games in back to back seasons as a member of the Houston Astros.
In 2010 when he was traded from the Astros to the Phillies, it seemed to rejuvenate his career. Oswalt went 7-1 for his new club to go with a 1.74 ERA a WHIP of 0.895 and a strikeout ratio of 7.9 per 9 innings. He was an integral part of the Phillies success before losing to the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants. Maybe a change of scenery is exactly what he needs. As was previously mentioned, he was the NLCS MVP in 2005 when he led the Astros to a World Series appearance, only to lose to the Chicago White Sox in four games. So he’s battle tested and is war ready and that’s exactly what it would be for Oswalt if he were to join the fight in the AL East.
I’ve made mention in previous posts that his lack of power would be a concern to the heavy hitting teams in the AL East. Oswalt saw his fastball velocity drop to 91.4 mph last year which could have been from his lingering back issues. Regardless, he’s still a risky signing.
But consider he’s a type A free agent and because the Phillies declined arbitration, signing Oswalt would not cost the Red Sox any supplementary draft picks.
If he’s drawing this much interest from several teams the scouting report has to be good on Oswalt. Either that or everyone is crazy desperate to sign any proven big league pitcher they can. If it were a three-year deal I’d say not a chance Ben, don’t be crazy. But a one-year deal could work for Boston. Providing he can stay healthy and give you anywhere from 25-30 starts, keep his fastball down and keep his ground ball ratio around his 45.1% mark, he might do okay in Fenway.
If Oswalt can’t stay healthy or proves to be a complete disaster on the mound then it’s a one-year contract and the Red Sox can walk away from him after next season. There will be options throughout the season to trade for pitchers if Oswalt struggles.
So I’ve changed my mind on this one, simply because of the lowered terms of the contract. A one-year deal, I say go for it Ben. Go get yourself a solid number four starter and take a risk on him. That is of course what your plan has been all along right?
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