“Darvish Disaster” Jays Could Knock Sox Off Wild Card Perch
By Earl Nash
“The high bid [for Yu Darvish] will be a posting process record according to Franz Lidz of SI.com, who hears from Japanese league officials that the winning bid exceeds the $51.1MM the Red Sox paid for the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka five years ago.
Yesterday we heard that the Blue Jays bid north of $40MM, making them the favorites for the 25-year-old right-hander. The Rangers, Yankees, and Cubs also submitted bids while the Red Sox did NOT…Nearly 7,500 MLBTR readers believe he’ll land in New York with the Yankees. The Nippon Ham Fighters are expected to accept the high bid just before Tuesday’s deadline.
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FINAL WARNING: If you are a Red Sox fan with a heart condition, or, bad news about the Sox will ruin your holidays, do not read this article !!!
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If the two finalists are indeed in the AL East [Jays and Yanks], the winner of the Yu Darvish Derby this Tuesday, could decide the division title–and the Red Sox may lose their Wild Card playoff slot to Toronto in 2012–before Xmas Day. And, spoiler alert, it gets WORSE!
If the rough calculations in this article are close* Red Sox fans need to cross all their digits and hope that the Yankees, yes, the Yankees, get the winning bid for Yu Darvish and sign him. Why? Because if Toronto signs Darvish, it may doom Boston’s Wild Card prospects for several years. [You can exhale now.]
[*DISCLAIMER: conducted by a retired English professor; highest Math grade, career: D+]
The Yanks took the AL East flag last season [97-65] and Tampa took the Wild Card slot [91-71], the Sox were third [90-72], the Jays broke even in fourth [81-81]; results in the Games Behind column were: Tampa [6], Red Sox [7], Toronto [16].
Sure, the September Swoon left Boston just one game behind Tampa for a ticket to the playoffs, but the interesting number is [9], the number of games between the Sox and the Jays.
If the Jays sign Darvish and he has W-L record similar to his career stats,
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=darvis001yu-
…what then?
During his 4-year pro career he was 58-22 with a winning PCT of .725. Let’s say he gets his average of 20 decisions @ .725; that multiplies up to 14.5 Ws; so, let’s round it of to 15 wins; it also results in 5 losses. Do the math: 15 minus 5 = 10 Ws to the good.
Here is the 2011 Jays regular rotation:
"1. R. Romero 2. B. Morrow 3. B. Cecil 4. H. Alvarez 5. D. McGowan"
We could add Darvish and drop #4, Alvarez, who was 1-3, but we would also combine the victory total for him and #5 McGowan [0-2] and get a 1-5 record for comparison. The difference between a 15-5 record [Darvish] and the 4/5 twins’ record [1-5] is 14 Ws. (5 Ls are a wash; Darvish wins 14 more than the duo.)
"1. R. Romero 2. B. Morrow 3. Y. Darvish4. B. Cecil 5. H. Alvarez/D. McGowan"
Now, let’s put Darvish in with the other three starters and, assuming they repeat their W-L record totals, we can give the Blue Jays a +14 in the Ws column over 2011 and this projects [holding all other stats steady from 2011,] these would be the final standings for 2012,:
"Yankees 97-65 – Toronto 96-66 1 Tampa 91-71 6 Boston 90-72 7 Baltimore 69-93 28"
Red Sox fans may want to be rooting for the Yankees to sign Darvish, since it would mean that Boston still has a good shot at the Wild Card slot, although the Broncs Bummers will be runaway pennant winners with the Sox and Rays within ONE game of each other for the Wild Card slot. And, these would be the final standings for 2012:
"Yankees 111-51 Tampa 91-71Boston 90-72 Toronto 81-81 Baltimore 69-93"
[PLEA: As I am a Red Sox fanatic, I am pleading for any Math major at MIT, or Ha-vid, or reader to discover a flaw in my calculations; my 66 year-old ticker is fine, but the wife and family will have a Marley Grumble around, if I am correct. Prove me wrong, please!]
If Darvish does NOT become a Yankee or a Jay, I will post a graphic of the Saturday Night Live character, editorial commentator, Emily Litella, saying, sheepishly:
“Oh…never mind…”
FOOTNOTE:
When word emerged that the New York Yankees were entering the bidding for the negotiating rights to superstar Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish, the conventional wisdom dictated that the notoriously free-spending Yanks would be the likely winners. According to a report from George A. King of the New York Post, that’s not actually the case: citing sources with knowledge of the situation, King reports that the Toronto Blue Jays made a bid “above $40 million and possibly close to $50 million”.
Even if that big bid trumps the Yankees, the Blue Jays will not be guaranteed to receive the 6-foot-5 Darvish: these bids are only for rights to negotiate with the pitcher. Should his current team, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, accept the highest bid, the winning MLB team will have 30 days to reach an agreement with Darvish. If no agreement is reached, the posting money is returned.
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