With the media rumor mill focused on Yu “Whirling” Darvish, the MSM mob may be missing the arrival of “the best pure hitter Japan has ever produced since Ichiro” [Jon Heyman]—a Japanese outfielder, who will dwarf Godzilla [aka Hideki Matsui].
But, on the other bench, they mutter that he may just be, at nearly 5’8, 182 lbs, just a short stocky “Ichiro-Lite” with a weak arm and no power.
Getting an accurate reading on Norichika Aoki’s ranking, relative to Ichiro, or the Japanese Babe Ruth, Wang Chenchih [aka Sadaharu Oh], who, like Ruth started his career as a successful pitcher, before becoming the nation’s all-time career HR leader, well, it’s about as easy as deciphering this scouting report:
今年も日本ハム・ダルビッシュら多くの日本人選手がメジャーを目指し、ソフトバンク・川崎はイチローが所属するマリナーズ入りを熱望。青木も「絶対的な 条件じゃないけど、チームに１人でも日本人がいたら心強い。言葉を交わせるから」。この日は神宮クラブハウスで調整。「今、自分ができることは、しっかり 練習しておくこと」と話した。
Many reasonably translatable English-speaking pundits have doubts about the 29 year-old Tokyo Yakult Swallows’star; some say that he may not have the power bat to carry a team and that he may be, at best, a 4th outfielder. Perhaps then, to maintain offensive harmony, other batters may have to “Carry Aoki.”
Or is he “…a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat that can pull the ball as well as hit for a high average (.333 career batting average as of May 13, 2009).”? [NPB Tracker]
But, his MLB projected stats, convert from professional Japanese leagues to MLB to a very modest: 287/.335/.379 (per ZiPS)
[Tweets Dan Szymborski]
"Experts question his defense, especially his arm strength:“…The only knock on his game is his rather weak throwing arm, which may limit him to left field at the MLB level.” [Patrick Newman, FANGRAPHS]“…the center field defense and base-running skills that could leave him an average player or make him into a low-grade star at the position.” [Dan Moore, SB Nation, St. Louis]“His throwing arm is fringe-average for a major league center fielder but accurate, and he has a quick release.” [Wiki]"
Yet, in his defense, we note that Aoki earned a reputation as a superb center fielder with excellent instincts and range, winning three consecutive Golden Glove awards from 2006 to 2008 and leading all outfielders in the Central League putouts in 2006 and 2007. And: “[though] somewhat stocky at 5’7.5, 182 lbs, but is a good runner with tremendous range in the outfield.” [Patrick Newman, FANGRAPHS]
(INSERT SCRATCHING HEAD ICON HERE)
Conflicting bytes of evidence frustrate any attempt to evaluate the relative value of a Japanese star, like Aoki, so, let’s “follow the money.” In 2009 the Tokyo Yakult Swallows’ CF signed for $2.86 million. Jon Heyman predicts a $10 million dollar posting fee and a 3-year/$15 million dollar deal. Comparing Heyman’s to Heyman’s, Jon estimates that Yu Darvish, the 25-year-old Ham Fighter’s star pitcher, who posted this past Thursday, will get $40 million dollar posting fee and a 5-year/$60M dollar deal.
"FINAL “MONEY BALL” SCORE: Aoki: $25 million Darvish: $100 million[Jon Heyman, Sports Illustrated]"
Is any MLB club showing any interest in him? While the posting bids are sealed, it appears that at least one team, Washington, may put in an offer:
Sources near the White House said: “Nori Aoki a possible backup plan for the Nationals in center field”, The 29-year-old Yakult Swallows’ speedy, Gold Glove outfielder Norichika “Nori” Aoki [can be added] to the list of potential solutions to the Nats’ center fielder search.” [Adam Kilgore]
So, is Heyman right? Is Darvish is worth 4 Aokis, or is Aoki “the best pure hitter Japan has ever produced since Ichiro”? Let’s put the subjective opinions and pundits aside and consider these facts:
From 1994-2000, Ichiro was the undisputed best hitter in Japan; then came Hideki Matsui, then Nobuhiko Matsunaka, until 2005 when Norichika Aoki emerged.
Wisely cautioning against facile comparisons between profession baseball in Japan and in MLB, Patrick Newman, FANGRAPHS writes: “In his last four years leading up to 2011 Fans should take these numbers with a grain of salt because no hitter, Ichiro included, has ever come to America and post the same numbers they did in Japan.”
Yet Newman adds: “In a post-Ichiro, post-Matsui NPB, Aoki reigns as the consensus top hitter. I’d actually go so far as to say that he’s the best pure hitter Japan has produced since Ichiro. Aoki is a line drive hitter with occasional power who uses the whole field. He’s also a disciplined batter, walking about as often as he strikes out, which is rare in Japan.”
It is tempting to just go with the recent Japanese League stats and see an eerie likeness of “The Hero” Ichiro:
"LAST FOUR YEARS IN JAPAN, STATS AVERAGE: Aoki: .339/.421, 31 doubles 16 homeruns, 20 SBs. Ichiro: .358/.423, 29 doubles 16 homeruns. 21 SBs."
Two things we DO know that makes the Swallow’s CF “special:”
Like all adept hitters he makes adjustments and does not hesitate to switch from one stance to another when he falls into a slump. But, with Aoki, the what’s intriguing is that he employs several different batting stances–during the same plate appearance.
In the modern MLB Era of Power, he will be unique, as Aoki is adept at hitting infield singles to the left side of the infield to get on base. His amazing bat control compares to MLB masters of the wood wand, like Don “Mandrake The Magician” Mueller [N.Y. Giants] and Rod Carew [Twins]. Aoki is so skilled at directing the ball the opposite way for infield hits and singles to left field, teams began employing an “Aoki Shift,” where the third baseman plays shallow and the shortstop shades into the 5-6 hole.
While something like ‘one summer does not a Swallow make,’ may mask a truism, during his SIX Swallow summers, Aoki won three batting titles, six Gold Gloves and a recorded a .336/.411/.472 career slash.
Most likely, bids will be submitted and a contract will be signed by this nearly 30/nearly 5-8/nearly as good as an Ichiro/Carew hybrid/ prospect. Then, at last, we may get to see him bat against the more-heralded Japanese darling prospect du jour.
Imagine the scene, the fans in the stands, a national audience, me and you…
Then Yu and “Noni,” mano-a-mano, stare to glare, hurler to hitter, up on the mound and down on the ground, will settle the question:
Does one “Whirling” Darvish equal four stroking Aokis?
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