Free Agent Pitchers the Red Sox Should Stay Away From
The World Series is complete and what a year it was. Just because the action on the field is now over, doesn’t mean things are going to slow down off the field. In fact, as November is merely days away, the hot stove is already in full throttle with rumors and speculation running rampant in the baseball world.
The Boston Red Sox, who have been at the centre of so much scrutiny and public debacle will continue to be under microscopic attention when it comes to their offseason. Every move they make, every free agent rumored to be a target and every contract they decide to pass on will be dissected and discussed.
Over the past few weeks we’ve been doing a series of posts titled “Offseason Changes,” highlighting specific Red Sox players that should be moved, resigned or allowed to walk into the free agent market. We now turn our attention to some of the players who will be seeking new employment this winter.
The biggest area of concern for the Red Sox heading into the offseason is without question their starting pitching. They need help to fill the number four and five spots in the rotation. Free agency will certainly present ample opportunity to do so, but there are a few pitchers who the Red Sox should shy away from.
1. CC Sabathia – lately there have been all kinds of swirling rumor winds that CC Sabathia will opt out of his current contract with the New York Yankees and either test the market or lure the Yankees into a more lucrative contract. With John Lackey scheduled for Tommy John Surgery and out for the entire 2012 season (thank you baseball gods), speculation is that the Red Sox will make a push for the hefty lefty. This is not a good move for Boston and here’s why.
First of all and most importantly is the size of the contract Sabathia will be seeking. It’s been made public that he’ll be looking for Cliff Lee type money in the range of $24 million per season. The key will be the length of the deal with the Sabathia camp looking for a minimum of five years. For the Red Sox to spend this type of money on CC is ludacris. They’ve already got a fair amount of money tied up in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester and with a couple of pending free agents that could impact the club in other areas, David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon, CC isn’t worth signing.
He’s 31 years of age and arguably his best years are behind him. He’s a work horse and has logged a lot of innings in his career thus far which begs the question not if, but when does his arm start to break down. While it could be fun to watch the Red Sox drive up the price on CC so the Yankees have to pay the big man, I don’t see Boston making this move.
2. C.J. Wilson – the current lefty ace for the Texas Rangers is set to headline the list of pitchers available for free agency (if Sabathia doesn’t opt out of his contract). Wilson will most likely cash in as his services are deemed to be the most sought after this winter. A powerful lefty that can dominate batters with speed and location, Wilson will draw attention for more than a few teams. The Rangers will try and keep their number one starter and he could very well return to Texas. But again, he doesn’t appear to be a good fit for the Red Sox.
Wilson who is currently making $7.5 million, will likely get offers that could reach as high $100 million. Early speculation has the Washington Nationals making a push for Wilson to bolster their rotation and compliment phenom Stephen Strasburg. Again, why would the Red Sox spend that kind of cash on a guy that hasn’t exactly proven his worth in this year’s postseason. During the regular season he was 16-7 with an ERA of 2.94. Bit or a gamble on a guy who’s only started fulltime for the past two years. Besides, Ben Cherington stated that they would look at some low cost players who they feel can make an impact. Wilson is definetly out of the question then.
3. Roy Oswalt – he dominated in the 2005 NLCS and was named the MVP for that series which helped him earn a huge contract extension with the Houston Astros. But lately Oswalt has been battling some lingering health issues.
This past week the Phillies declined to pick up his $16 million dollar contract, making Oswalt a free agent. He threw 140 innings last season going 9-10 with an ERA of 3.69 for a powerhouse Phillies team. He’s 34 and when you combine all those facts he is a risk for the Red Sox to sign in my opinion. There are younger arms that the team can take a risk on and ones that will cost them a lot less money than what Oswalt will be looking for (around $12 million most likely).
The Yankees will most likely go after Oswalt if they can’t land C.J. Wilson and as far as I’m concerned, they can have him.
4. Mark Buehrle – I was on the fence on this one but lately I’ve come to realize that he may not be worth the investment. The fierce right handed fireballer who threw a perfect game during the 2010 season appears to be finished with the Chicago White Sox where he’s played his entire career.
At 32, Buehrle does show signs of having some good years left in the tank. He went 13-9 with a 3.91 ERA in 2011. His current contract was for 4 years worth $56 million or $14 million a season. He, like Oswalt will likely demand similar money in that $15 million range with a long-term deal being the imminent factor. The four or five year deal is likely to take Boston out of the running and rightfully so.
This is exactly the type of signing the Red Sox need to stay away from. In four or five years when Buehrle is broken down and still making $15 million, he’d become another bad free agent signing by the Red Sox. He’s only won 19 games once and that was back in 2002. Over the past five seasons he’s averaged 13 wins per year and to pay a guy $14 million for 13 wins is ridiculous. John Lackey can do that, maybe. Stay away from Buehrle Mr. Cherington. There is money to be spent elsewhere.
Tomorrow I’ll examine the four pitchers that the Red Sox should go after in free agency.
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